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Unforseen's blog

GDX Vs Gold Discussion

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 1/30/13 at 9:00pm
GDX

I've been having the discussion on the title lately with a client, coworkers, and last night, with Certified Users in the WSO chat.

The discussion stems from the fact that since about June 2008, the return of GDX vs Gold Spot has deviated significantly.

For those of you who don't know, GDX is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. (You can find the Factsheet of the ETF Here) From the Factsheet:

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  • 12
     

My CFA Study Tracking Sheet

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 12/27/12 at 11:25am
cfa.png

I managed to pass Level II with a good breakdown (> 70% in 7 sections including all the big ones, 3 between 50-70) in exactly three months. I attribute my success mainly to discipline and desire to pass (Unlike 90% of people taking the test, I've been wanting to take the test since sophomore year, when I learned that 1/5 PMs had their Charter) but also this little simple sheet I created.

The sheet is very simple. I don't think I have to explain much. So I will be brief.

1. Only you will be seeing this sheet, So you'll only be lying to yourself if you inflate hours. I used my iphone timer and paused every time I went to the washroom or took a break. That 10 hour day somewhere on that sheet was the equivalent of 15 hours from the time i left to study till I came back.

2. I like these sheet over using calendars mainly because it takes 30 seconds to input. You can also add a comment section to input your thoughts about the study session.

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  • 18
     

Waging a moral war on Herbalife

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 12/21/12 at 11:00am
HLF 2012 YTD

Considering most of my clients are out in their beach and country homes vacationing leading to a very slow day at work, I figure I write about one of my favorite market developments of the year, The Hedge Funds vs. Herbalife war.

EDIT: Guys I think its important to get this site to the top of the google search when you search for 'Herbalife': http://factsaboutherbalife.com/


Herbalife LTD. is a network marketing company that sells weight management, nutritional supplement, and personal care products. The Company sells its products globally through a network of independent distributors. Herbalife also sells literature and promotional materials.

Man I love this story. As some of you know, Einhorn started the war on MLM in May of this year, when he nonchalantly asked a couple of questions on HLFs earning call which led to one of the most awesomes live drops in a stock price I've seen. (You can hear and read WSO comments about the call here.

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  • 37
     

Think quickly! what's the financial play following the death of Kin Jong Il

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 12/18/11 at 10:17pm

As sick as it sounds, I've been waiting for an event like this to blog.

This announcement seems unprecendented and its big enough to be able to make a profitable financial play.

Here are my thoughts:

While this might bring joy and relief tonight, tomorrow morning the feeling is going to turn into uncertainty. We all know uncertainty brings volatility so what can we do?

I predict the following:

- Shock depreciation of the Korean Won against the USD
- Depreciation of the Yen against the USD
- Selloff of Korean sov and corps, leading to a rise in korean rates.
-Widening of the long-short spread of Korean won denominated bonds

So if my predictions pan out, would this be the play?

- Short won/long usd
- Borrow in Korea, lend in USA/Canada/Swiss

  •  
  • 15
     

Rest in Peace, Ted Forstmann

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 11/20/11 at 7:52pm

"Ted Forstmann, the Wall Street dealmaker who sounded the alarm in the 1980s when junk bonds reshaped the leveraged-buyout industry he had helped create, has died. He was 71."

- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-20/ted-forst...

I actually learned about Mr. Forstmann while I was reading Barbarians at the Gate. I finished the book a week ago and really liked it. He was one of the pioneers of Private Equity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_J._Forstmann

  • 4
     

Be first, be smarter, or cheat: Margin Call Review

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 10/24/11 at 10:44pm
margin call.jpg

Margin Call (2011)
105 min - Thriller - 21 October 2011 (USA)
Director: J.C. Chandor
Writer: J.C. Chandor
Stars: Zachary Quinto, Stanley Tucci and Kevin Spacey

I read somewhere this weekend that this movie came out on Friday and I decided like a good finance geek to go watch it tonight. I must say that out of all the finance movies I've seen and own (Boiler Room, both Wall Streets, Rogue Trader, and a plethora of documentaries), this might be my favorite one.

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  • 10
     

Alexander's Blog: Muammar Qaddafi Dead

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 10/20/11 at 9:19am

Please refer to my introductory blog post to understand what I'm trying to do with this blog: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/introduction-t...

The Libyan State TV stated this morning that Muammar Qaddafi has been captured. The reports have been conflicting and it is yet to be confirmed by an international organization that this is in fact true. Here's a few news links with the story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/qaddafi-r...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-153859...

Which assets might be affected by this report:

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  • 3
     

Introduction to "Alexander's Blog"

Unforseen's picture
Unforseen
     
 
 
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 10/5/11 at 9:48pm

Its been a while since I've wanted to start a blog. I even created a Wordpress account and started designing the blog but I got tired of all the spam tips and the fact that I would have to spend time building an audience. Luckily for me I browse WSO all the time and found out that any user could have a blog. Sweet.

The purpose of this blog is simple. Study major socio-economic, geopolitical, and major regional or global events such as natural disasters and test to see if certain opportunities that most people don't see do pay off. I hope I can get a couple of Monkeys interested in working with me on this and hopefully all of us involved become better at analyzing how information affects assets that most people are not looking at while the event is happening/just happened.

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  • 1
     

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