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West Coast FX's blog

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Is This a Currency War?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 9/20/12 at 5:00pm
Washington

Yesterday in a further attempt to stimulate their economy, Japan announced plans to increase their asset purchase program. The move was meant to lower rates even further in order to encourage additional lending and risk taking. The program is similar to ones enacted recently by the Fed and the Bank of England under the guise of Quantitative Easing. While it may seem innocent enough for a country to attempt to stimulate their economy, the fact is this doesn’t occur in a vacuum. These programs tend to (and are perhaps intended to) lead to depressed domestic currency values and therefore strengthen the values of foreign currencies in relation.

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5 Differences Between East Coast and West Coast Finance

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 9/13/12 at 6:30pm
east vs west

I’m commonly asked what investment management firms are like on the West Coast, whenever I meet people in the industry from the east. The northeast (New York, Connecticut and Boston) is obviously the Mecca of finance in the US. But there are also many finance firms dispersed throughout the rest of the country. These are five general differences between the IM industry of the East Coast vs. the West Coast. Keep in mind, these are generalizations derived from my experiences in the west and pertain mostly to asset managers.

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Endgame or End This Depression Now?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 9/7/12 at 11:00pm
endgame or end this depression now

Controversy over stimulus measures in the US has been ongoing since the beginning of the financial crisis. There are more than two sides to the argument, but these two books document two of the most popular ones. Krugman may be one of the most hated economists by conservatives, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a valid argument. Mauldin and Tepper are equally convincing but seem to have almost the opposite point of view. Having said that, they all seem to agree on one thing: If more stimulus is the answer, the current measures (such as QE2 and Operation Twist) are not nearly enough to make a big difference.

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Stern or Booth MBA for S&T?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 8/31/12 at 5:30am
stern & booth

Although the MBA may not be the most appropriate degree for S&T, for many, it could be their best shot. Both of these programs seem to be viewed in a similar light, at least in terms of their reputation in finance. From searches on Linked in and Bloomberg, it appears these schools have some of the most alumni currently in the industry. Chicago may be known as a slightly better school, but NYU is probably closer in proximity to more opportunities. And over recent years, they seem to of had comparable placement percentages in S&T.

With the industry shrinking from cuts it will only become more difficult to break into in the near future. Which program gives candidates a better chance to secure a role?

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Which Way Will Dollar-Yen Break?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 8/24/12 at 5:30am
yen-dollar.jpg

Over the last three months, the Dollar-Yen cross has remained seemingly tethered to a rate in-between 78 and 80. Perhaps pre-crisis this type of price action in a major currency cross would seem more commonplace, but compared to moves in other major currency pairs recently, its felt rather dull. Studying a long-term chart of the cross over the last 20 years one can see the rate has generally trended downward ever since the yen’s dramatic strengthening in 1998. Will the rate break down through 78 or up through 80? Below are arguments for the yen finally breaking out in either direction.

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Why Hasn't the Euro Tanked? (Part 2)

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 8/17/12 at 5:30am
crash 2

(…Continued from Part 1)

It goes without saying that the Euro has underperformed since the inception of the crisis in Europe. Yet faced with the possible extinction of the currency itself, many have called for an even lower rate in the Euro-US Dollar cross. Adding on to Part 1, detailed below are several more possible reasons why the rate has yet to sink even lower.

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Why Hasn't the Euro Tanked? (Part 1)

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 8/10/12 at 3:30pm
crash

With all the tumult over the future of the euro and the Eurozone the last couple of years, many are surprised the currency has continued to hold up so well. The various debt problems in the bloc have threatened the very existence of the currency, at least in its current form. If the core is unwilling to finance the debt of the periphery, or if Spain and Italy are too big to fail, or if Greece is a lost cause and bound to exit, then why hasn’t the euro fallen further?

In fact, many prominent economists have even called for euro parity with the US dollar. Thus far, however, we’ve yet to see this prophecy fulfilled. Contrary to many perplexed euro-bears, there are in fact several reasons the euro has persevered.

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European Alphabet Soup for the Layman

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 8/4/12 at 12:30pm
Alphabet Soup

Do CMBS, CMO, CDO, ABS, CDS, CLO, RMBS, CBO, TARP, HARP and HAMP sound familiar? As if we hadn’t been subjected to enough abbreviations during the US financial crisis, along comes Europe with their own slew of abbreviations and acronyms. Just as an intimate knowledge of these three and four-letter words were necessary to truly understanding the American crisis, the same is true for the European set. This is therefore meant to serve as a layman’s guide for the various abbreviations and acronyms now at the center of the European crisis.

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With 25% Unemployment, Does Spain Look Like This?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 7/28/12 at 12:30pm
Hooverville

I recently completed my first trip to Spain and before leaving, I couldn’t help but wonder whether the effects of the sour economy there would make themselves noticeable to the average tourist. The answer was surprisingly: Not really. Of course, since it was my first trip there I didn’t have much of a basis for comparison. I also only visited the tourist hot-spots of Madrid and Barcelona. However, from what I did see the general mood didn’t seem too much different from that of a tourist destination in the US.

By no means do I intend to minimize the pain of the Spanish people, as their unemployment rate reached 24.6% during the second quarter, with the rate over 50% for those under 25. This compares to the historical peak of unemployment in the US during the Great Depression of nearly 25% as well. However, the appearance of the country is not even remotely similar to these “Hoovervilles” in the US from the 1930s. Why such a stark contrast?

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Why Not More Stimulus?

West Coast FX's picture
West Coast FX
      AM
 
 
(Baboon, 110
 
Points)
 on 7/21/12 at 12:30pm
Rocket

Nonfarm Payrolls grew at a paltry rate of 80,000 in June, the unemployment rate is stuck above 8%, retail sales are faltering and inflation is significantly low… It appears the economy is stagnating once again, and GDP may even once again slip into negative territory creating a double-dip recession. To some, the time seems ripe for the government to enact additional stimulus measures.

Proposed actions have ranged from the institution of QE3, to slashing the Fed Funds rate to zero, to even outright government job creation. With so many negative economic signals, why doesn’t the Fed or the government enact more stimulus measures to help jump-start the economy? These are 3 of the top reasons given against enacting more stimulus.

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