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Carl Richards's blog

God Bless America and Please bless Earnings Season

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 10/11/12 at 11:00pm
Earnings

Tomorrow JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are the first in the banking sector to report quarterly earnings. Whisper numbers across the street are expecting good results from both. But while EPS may match and or beat analyst estimates, I’m more concerned with the increase (or lack there of) in revenue numbers. Last time around, expectations regarding earnings per share were for the most part met and or exceeded, but revenue numbers disappointed on the whole.

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Got Gas? Yes Please!!

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 10/4/12 at 11:30pm
Gass? Yes Please!

SandRidge Energy (SD) focuses on exploration, development, and production of oil and gas primarily in the Permian Basin and the West Texas Overthrus. Of the company's estimated reserves of 1,312.2 Bcfe, approximately 52% is natural gas.

In Q2 2012, SandRidge reached record oil generation levels amounting to 4.6 million barrels of oil and a total of 8.2 million boe. SandRidge revenue has therefore been growing at a rapid rate over the last five years. At the end of 2011, SandRidge's five-year annual average revenue growth rates were at 29.52 percent. Meanwhile, the year-over-year growth rate was 51.89 percent at the end of 2011.

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Morgan Stanley Labels QE3 a Flop, Asks for QE4

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 9/27/12 at 7:00am
UncleSam-SyringeInmagine_rbv03113161.jpg.w180h270.jpg

Last week I wrote about the danger of giving the markets more stimulus as the need for another round of quantitative easing screamed just one thing at me, dependency. And while we got the rush into equities that I like the rest of the world expected, we also got the slowdown once the sugar rush abated. So where does that leave us? As far as I’m concerned, we’re more or less exactly where we were before, just a couple points higher on the Dow or S&P (depending on your preference).
•Initial pop of 100 points on the Dow
•Initial pop of 36 points on the S&P
•Between 9/14 & 9/24 both indexes have traded in a range of less than 200 bips

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More Easing? Really?

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 9/14/12 at 1:00am
walk away number.jpg

With the markets on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the recent announcement of QE3 by the FED, it begs the question, should we really be getting more monetary stimulation?

While evidence demonstrates that the government bailout prevented a full fledged financial meltdown, the actual quantitative easing has not managed to stimulate anything more than a tepid, if not feeble, economic resurgence.

Small businesses remain crowded out while the big boys freeze or slow hiring until both the economic and regulatory environments become more appealing.

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Apple Price Action a Leading Indicator?

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 9/6/12 at 11:00pm
images.jpg

Heading into 2012, Apple’s price action ramped up way ahead of the overall markets move to the upside.

•From 6/2011-4/2012, Apple rose roughly $400

And while most of the growth came during the meat of the market surge post October, Apple’s growth was perhaps more impressive given the overall market plunge in August and September.

Maybe this can be explained by the theory of institutional money using Apple as a refuge during market turmoil, this could provide an interesting way of gauging large shifts in market sentiment well in advance. Keep in mind that Apple’s price stalled out well ahead of the market’s plunge in May.

As we see Apple’s stock price surging again, are there lessons to be learned from its previous range expansion?

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Bulls and Bears Battling on a Tight Wire

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 8/23/12 at 5:35pm
bull-bear-cartoon.jpg

"Stock market: Is new all-time high ahead?"
- USA Today 7:18 AM 8/23/2012

That was a headline I read this morning. I know the S&P is seeing 4 year highs but its hardly been a smooth climb, bouncing around from range to range. Are we on the brink of a grisly Bear market like Bill Gross proclaimed from his perch on a mound of munis or are we on the verge of a golden 2013 as others have postured? And what’s that adage about not bears nor bulls, but pigs getting slaughtered..

Given the increasingly unlikely chances of a soft landing in China, a booming domestic economic recovery, or even a resolution in Europe, how do we feel about the bear on bull battle?

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Dump Dell, Run with Lenovo

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 8/17/12 at 6:30pm
Lenovo-ThinkPad-driver.jpg

To many, the PC industry is dying. The rise in popularity of smart phones and tablets has made PCs more and more obsolete, reducing margins and squeezing out small companies. Although, it certainly is not the vaunted industry of the nineties, it does still hold deep pockets of value. As the Internet becomes a basic good, new opportunities to further monetize it arise (i.e. Twitter). In today’s day and age a company’s ability to rapidly identify and exploit new opportunity is what separates companies with sustainable success from companies that perish.

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Wells Fargo Poised to Breakout

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 8/7/12 at 4:30am
WFC price history

Since 2008, the media’s scrutiny of the financial sector has intensified significantly. This has thrust many of the larger banks into the spotlight to address issues such as Libor manipulation (Barclays), whale sized trading losses (JPMorgan Chase), and irresponsible underwriting (Morgan Stanley). Undeniably, the whole industry has suffered due to the negative media attention over the last four years despite reducing risk and improving balance sheets across the board.

One bank, however, has used the turbulent wake left over from 2008 as an opportunity. Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) has not only avoided costly blunders but also responsibly increased its market share and is now uniquely positioned to take advantage of any bones the tepid economic recovery might throw.

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