AAPL Breaks $500 Pre-Market
Could be an ugly day for those of us (like myself) who are long AAPL at higher prices. The stock is off nearly 30% in the past 90 days, and I'm reading about the next support levels being somewhere in the $460 range. I know this has a lot of folks panicked, but here's why I think the glass is half full.
I own the stock at an average of $590, and it's currently at $499 pre-market. At the risk of delivering a fairly pedestrian analysis of the situation, the fundamentals of the company haven't changed since I started buying it. Therefore, it's time for me to average down. Don't be sore, buy some more, right?
I happen to believe that AAPL is under such intense selling pressure at the moment because so many institutions own it so much lower, the fiscal cliff is threatening to raise capital gains rates, and they might as well sell it and lock in the profit while avoiding the fiscal cliff risk at the same time. On top of that, plenty of hedge funds need the winner by year end, so they're probably pulling the flowers and letting the weeds grow.
Is that wishful thinking on my part? I don't think so, but perhaps you can convince me otherwise. AAPL is still sitting on an ungodly amount of cash and trading at 11 times earnings. They have a number of absolute game changers in the pipeline (if everything works out) so there's explosive potential upside to be had over the next 12-18 months. Maybe we all end up kicking ourselves this time next year for not buying more under $500 (assuming we get to do that this week).
Or am I wrong? I'm actually thinking of taking profits on some GOOG and rolling that into AAPL. I'm not crazy about the idea but if we get another ~$20 drop in AAPL today I might have to. What do you guys think?






Comments
I am sorry, but can you
I am sorry, but can you please tell me what "game changers" apple has in the works? They have been relying on apple fanboyism for years now without releasing anything even close to revolutionary or game changing.
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
Nefarious-: I am sorry, but
I am sorry, but can you please tell me what "game changers" apple has in the works?
Perhaps a logo that isn't based on a fruit.
In headaches and in worry
Vaguely life leaks away
And Time will have his fancy
Tomorrow or today.
Going
I am sorry, but can you please tell me what "game changers" apple has in the works?
Perhaps a logo that isn't based on a fruit.
That is how unoriginal Apple Inc is. They stole their name and their logo from The Beatles record label that was formed in the 60s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Records
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Corps
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
Nefarious-: Going
I am sorry, but can you please tell me what "game changers" apple has in the works?
Perhaps a logo that isn't based on a fruit.
That is how unoriginal Apple Inc is. They stole their name and their logo from The Beatles record label that was formed in the 60s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Records
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Corps
That's pathetic. Perhaps they'll change to Mango instead, and have commercials that steal Phish's 'Mango Song'.
"Your hands and feet are mangos / You're gonna be a genius anyway".
In headaches and in worry
Vaguely life leaks away
And Time will have his fancy
Tomorrow or today.
How can you use a single
How can you use a single event such as how they chose their name and logo over thirty years ago at inception to characterize a company as massive as Apple? Steve Jobs chose to use an Apple as name and icon for his company because he liked The Beatles, so 36 years later when he is dead, everyone in charge of the direction of the company must be "unoriginal"?
"Well that's even more than less than unhelpful." - Jack Sparrow
MFFL: How can you use a
How can you use a single event such as how they chose their name and logo over thirty years ago at inception to characterize a company as massive as Apple? Steve Jobs chose to use an Apple as name and icon for his company because he liked The Beatles, so 36 years later when he is dead, everyone in charge of the direction of the company must be "unoriginal"?
I have never liked Apple or anything they do.
Not really sure what your point is here - if anything, you just solidified mine as to how unoriginal they are.
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
The company is kind of
The company is kind of ridiculous right now - 12x trailing PE, while MSFT is at 14.55x (admittedly, that is partially attributable to MSFT's dividend). They have over 120billion in cash - this provides tremendous flexibility.
Steve Jobs was a very effective leader, but one man does not make the largest company in America. To think AAPL will fail without him is to fall victim to the "great man" fallacy.
Samsung is taking over ?
Samsung is taking over ?
Correct me if I'm wrong but
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Apple and a load of other Tech firms lobby for changes to the revenue recognition policies of revenues from hardware and software sales made together? I think it use to be the case that if you sold Hardware you booked the revenues today but delayed revenue recognition of the software sales over a few years? I think Apple's earnings were boosted by this change which makes the P/E ratio look lower than it should be under the previous revenue recognition rules.
I love how sensitive apple
I love how sensitive apple fanboys get when you show them how shitty and unoriginal apple is.
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
It is starting to look
It is starting to look tempting even for a Apple hater like me. If it continues to slide towards new years I'll start loading up on every 20 dollars down.
CNBC sucks
"This financial crisis is worse than a divorce. I've lost all my money, but the wife is still here." - Client after getting blown up
West Coast rainmaker: To
To think AAPL will fail without him is to fall victim to the "great man" fallacy.
Fallacy?
Babyj18777: West Coast
To think AAPL will fail without him is to fall victim to the "great man" fallacy.
Fallacy?
Well it's debatable. It isn't technically a fallacy - more a cognitive error. But we, as a relatively individualistic culture, like to latch onto individual stories as opposed to team-based stories.
There's no denying Jobs was a great CEO. But he was supported by a great team of designers, programmers, hardware engineers, etc.
The stock is now trading at
The stock is now trading at an all time low P/E; no material news since the last earnings release (other than AAPL release a bearish guidance, which they are famous for blowing out of the water) and the stock has still fallen 20% = I'm buying before market close
For the $500 you need to
For the $500 you need to spend to buy one share of Apple, you can get a shiny new Windows PC or notebook that has a full two mouse buttons and can run basic spreadsheet software.
In headaches and in worry
Vaguely life leaks away
And Time will have his fancy
Tomorrow or today.
Some clarifying points: 1)
Nefarious-: I am sorry, but
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
kyleyboy: Nefarious-: I am
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
Edmundo Braverman: Could be
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
Nefarious-: kyleyboy: Nef
In headaches and in worry
Vaguely life leaks away
And Time will have his fancy
Tomorrow or today.
Nefarious-: kyleyboy: Nef
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
kyleyboy: Nefarious-: kyl
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
Nefarious-: I have never
"Well that's even more than less than unhelpful." - Jack Sparrow
MFFL: Nefarious-: I have
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
I saw that, and that's why I
"Well that's even more than less than unhelpful." - Jack Sparrow
West Coast rainmaker: The
“...all truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
- Schopenhauer
West Coast
This is why I will never
"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan
phcap: Some clarifying
Haha did you really say TV's
kyleyboy: mundo I agree with
losers average losers,
I'm gona make a bullish call
Why is there so much
sandsurfngbomber: Why is
You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
Well I think right now, the
AAPL's multiple looks much
how could you have not seen
onemanwolfpack: The stock is
ladubs111: I'm gona make a
"Averaging down" is the root
When utility becomes concave
and outliers cease to be brave,
think of the CAPM twist:
that return grows as does risk.