AAPL Breaks $500 Pre-Market

I am sorry, but can you please tell me what "game changers" apple has in the works? They have been relying on apple fanboyism for years now without releasing anything even close to revolutionary or game changing.

How can you use a single event such as how they chose their name and logo over thirty years ago at inception to characterize a company as massive as Apple? Steve Jobs chose to use an Apple as name and icon for his company because he liked The Beatles, so 36 years later when he is dead, everyone in charge of the direction of the company must be "unoriginal"?

The company is kind of ridiculous right now - 12x trailing PE, while MSFT is at 14.55x (admittedly, that is partially attributable to MSFT's dividend). They have over 120billion in cash - this provides tremendous flexibility.

Steve Jobs was a very effective leader, but one man does not make the largest company in America. To think AAPL will fail without him is to fall victim to the "great man" fallacy.

Samsung is taking over ?

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Apple and a load of other Tech firms lobby for changes to the revenue recognition policies of revenues from hardware and software sales made together? I think it use to be the case that if you sold Hardware you booked the revenues today but delayed revenue recognition of the software sales over a few years? I think Apple's earnings were boosted by this change which makes the P/E ratio look lower than it should be under the previous revenue recognition rules.

I love how sensitive apple fanboys get when you show them how shitty and unoriginal apple is.

It is starting to look tempting even for a Apple hater like me. If it continues to slide towards new years I'll start loading up on every 20 dollars down.

The stock is now trading at an all time low P/E; no material news since the last earnings release (other than AAPL release a bearish guidance, which they are famous for blowing out of the water) and the stock has still fallen 20% = I'm buying before market close

For the $500 you need to spend to buy one share of Apple, you can get a shiny new Windows PC or notebook that has a full two mouse buttons and can run basic spreadsheet software.

Some clarifying points:

1) AAPL is the most held stock by HF worldwide, imagine the potential damage of margin calls 2) Plot AAPL on a long enough time scale and you will see nothing more than parabolic growth Calculate the weight of AAPL in the Nasdaq (MCAP and earnings), the results should not surprise you 3) Impact of reports such as http://www.scribd.com/doc/117055974/Citi-AAPL-Downgrade

When I saw the previous thread on the frontpage during the weekend I wanted to comment "hell yeah I am short too", unfortunately the topic was to go .. long...

Good investing!

Edmundo Braverman:

Could be an ugly day for those of us (like myself) who are long AAPL at higher prices. The stock is off nearly 30% in the past 90 days, and I'm reading about the next support levels being somewhere in the $460 range. I know this has a lot of folks panicked, but here's why I think the glass is half full.

I own the stock at an average of $590, and it's currently at $499 pre-market. At the risk of delivering a fairly pedestrian analysis of the situation, the fundamentals of the company haven't changed since I started buying it. Therefore, it's time for me to average down. Don't be sore, buy some more, right?

I happen to believe that AAPL is under such intense selling pressure at the moment because so many institutions own it so much lower, the fiscal cliff is threatening to raise capital gains rates, and they might as well sell it and lock in the profit while avoiding the fiscal cliff risk at the same time. On top of that, plenty of hedge funds need the winner by year end, so they're probably pulling the flowers and letting the weeds grow. Is that wishful thinking on my part? I don't think so, but perhaps you can convince me otherwise. AAPL is still sitting on an ungodly amount of cash and trading at 11 times earnings. They have a number of absolute game changers in the pipeline (if everything works out) so there's explosive potential upside to be had over the next 12-18 months. Maybe we all end up kicking ourselves this time next year for not buying more under $500 (assuming we get to do that this week).

Or am I wrong? I'm actually thinking of taking profits on some GOOG and rolling that into AAPL. I'm not crazy about the idea but if we get another ~$20 drop in AAPL today I might have to. What do you guys think?

mundo I agree with you on most of what you said, Apple is certainly undervalued but I think you are forgetting the fact that as of now until they make more progress on the Apple TV there are simply and positively no catalysts what so ever. Apple is going to be having a pretty slow couple of months sorting out all the costs and margins issues as well as manufacturing issues.. I think we will see apple go down to the 400 range and then that will be a screaming buy opportunity if they sort out the margins . There is simply no reason to buy too early here. I think it's worth waiting and buying a shit ton of as time goes on.

Apple, if I had to guess, will probably be doing a lot of acquisitions for this TV of theirs. Probably lots of things that compliment music applications and buying out more rights.

That's just my view

I saw that, and that's why I didn't criticize your other posts. I don't see what part of this you are having difficulty understanding. You gave an extremely weak piece of evidence to support your argument, and I commented saying that was a really dumb wait to support your argument. What about that doesn't make sense?

This is why I will never invest in tech... Even the almighty Apple is fucking shit up.

losers average losers, right??

I'm gona make a bullish call right now and say Apple will break $700 after their Q1 earnings. I am not a fanboy nor own a single Apple product, but the company fundamentals are too strong. Refresh cycle, and smartphone/tablet market growth will likely help them keep incremental iphone and ipad sales up.

After reading thru some reports, the margin compression is overplayed, with trade NAND and DRAM prices down pretty much 50% of last year, and Apple still making 16 gig phones for like 2 years now, i can't see how margins will drop to 36% even with all the SKU in Q1.

Why is there so much resistance to the concept that Apple no longer sells the "incredible" products it once sold when compared to their competition?

When I was purchasing my MacbookPro I was replacing an top-class Sony Vaio because three years brought a significant amount of wear to it. Apple products were absolutely incredible when compared to Blackberry at the time of iPhone launch, Snow Leopard compared to Vista, MacbookPros when compared to crappy plastic bodied laptops and iPads really steered the possibilities for tablets. After years of reaping market share, the remaining players in the game are finally pumping out some cool products that can go toe-to-toe with whatever AAPL has to offer and I for one am glad to see some COMPETITION (speaking as a consumer). At the same time Apple has really dropped the ball in coming up with new features for every line they sell. Really, I like to stay current with technology and I'm using the same old MBP and iPhone 4...I see no benefit from upgrading right now.

I'm hoping Windows 8 grabs some touchscreen market (despite contrary numbers) and its nice to see tablet laptops coming back again. Apple has enough money to dick around for a few months and get their act straight with products that actually bring those "game-changers" (iOS 6 and iPhone 5 are their worst upgrades yet imo) meanwhile their stock is sure to suffer. Linus Torvald (Linux) recently spoke against Retina displays as a joke for resolution updates when the technology already exists to surpass it with low costs.

Lastly, talking about TVs - have you guys seen those new Samsung TVs?? They are badass! Apple better have some incredible tricks up their sleeves.

P.S. Sorry for the long post!

Well I think right now, the mobile phone industry is getting rather homogenous. Notice NOK and RIMM. This would surely eat into AAPL market share and over time, I believe that most company in the mobile phone industry will have similar market share. Thus short apple, long out-of-favour mobile corporation.

Of course, I may be wrong

AAPL's multiple looks much less attractive if your assumption is that growth has peaked (which it has due to smart phone saturation) and that pricing will come down (inevitable imo, in fact Apple's mix has already declined significantly in price). Apple is not a software company and its platform does not have the moats many assumed. It is a hardware company and the price for hardware over time has always been down and to the right. This applies across the enterprise and consumer space.

Consider this. Apple has approximately 250 million active users worldwide. There are less than 900 million people who make more than $15k in the world. They are nearly 30% penetrated in their potential market (a very generous potential market), with competition outselling them at the moment.