I can still hear them now, talking about V shapes and check marks, searching their financial lexicons for words with outrageously positive connotations... The bulls got it handed to them over the course of the last three months, with the S&P and Dow giving up 11.9% and 10% respectively - easily the shittiest quarter since the end of ‘08 – but what now? Can we expect a bit of a turnaround this quarter or are we in for more carnage? Is our economy really so fundamentally interwoven with that of Europe that we shouldn’t expect to resume any sort of recovery until, if, things get sorted out over there, or did the market overreact to the downside a bit, having been primed for a dip after a rally that went too far too soon?
My guess is basically more of the same: Stocks will continue to trade in a mixed range with the same high levels of volatility, making modest gains toward the end of the quarter. Dow closes September up 400-600 points from today.
Curious to hear what everyone else thinks.
Down down down. At least for global equities. 10 year treasuries and Gold should be up even more. Perhaps I'm too bearish. I just don't see this economy turning around anytime soon. I think this is a debt deflation. Although it could be worse. Perhaps this is a breakdown of fiat currencies.
The Euro is toast. Greece isn't too blame too much. It was fundamentally flawed from the get go. Greece was an import based economy during the 90's, and Germany was an export based economy. Now the 2 use the same currency, but the currency reflects the strength of the Mark. Because of this, Greece cannot devalue their currency to allow for imports, thus creating a trade deficit (and thus, a budget deficit). Basically, the Euro proves that a monetary union cannot exist without a fiscal union.
VXX and VXZ will still be popular hedging opportunities based on exactly what you've just said -- I find it hard to really have a definitive outlook though. Just look at what the financial bill did to major banks in the last few days.. initial jump and then staggered losses. Overall I see the same thing happening all over the place.
Based on your statements about the European markets you are absolutely correct -- we are still very much tied into what's happening over there. With Greece as the popular story of the last few months, how many more countries are going to fall into the same patterns? Spain and Hungary are definitely falling into the same positions and with international confidence shaky, just look at the dollar. Best quarter in over three years with the falls in the Euro and the Yen. Rising dollar prices make the US equities market very interesting.
I know lots of firms were stressing a 1300 S&P by the end of the calendar year and I think that was excessively bullish based on the constant returns that everyone has seen since March 2009 -- I say that the Dow closes at ~12000 in September and the S&P at 1180. Too much correction right now, even with the last quarter being a piece of shit, things can only jump so much.
Short version: durr BUY GOLD! (and August index calls if your balls are still intact)
The world economy depends on who wins the world cup
Haha so what will Ghana or Uruguay winning the world cup mean?
Haha so what will Ghana or Uruguay winning the world cup mean?[/quote]
Let's talk about things that actually have a chance of happening.
that isn't going to happen (Uruguay and Ghana winning the world cup)
Seriously though I think the world economy balances on whether Spain wins the world cup or not. If it does win its economy should get a major boost and could possibly calm the markets
europe exacerbates the dire strights the us economy is in........so does the BUBBLE in china, australia simple rule of 72!.......no real job growth in us, still no credit for the consumer, small businesses....so what has changed? more jobless americans that are broke.....yea real recovery LMAO! the market didnt "overreac"t as you put it, the writing is on the wall. risk is off, flight to quality is ON.......wait till shit hits the fan, this is round 2......
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