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What banker careers really look like: real private data
 

bankerella's picture
IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 9/6/12 at 12:00pm
Success-in-Career.jpg

The most common arguments on WSO are about what it really takes to make it to Wall Street... and then what your options are if you get there. Working professionals come here to engage in witty banter and relax, only to spend half our time here debunking bullshit and writing advice based on our (limited) personal experiences.

How can we cut to the chase and give these kids hard data on which to base their life decisions, as well as save ourselves some time so we can get back to important things like ass and titties?

The answer came to me as I was googling a few ex-coworkers from a long time ago, just to see how they’ve been doing and whether I’ve done better or worse (something people do far more than they’d like to admit). The data is out there.

Yeah, anyone with enough connections could throw a data set together from LinkedIn. But let’s face it: there are a lot of losers out there who did some shitty back-office role at GS five years ago and are now answering phones at Ameriprise. We don’t want them in the data set. We want certified ballers only, right?

Let’s just say that, thanks to some HR friends and a truly brilliant data miner, I now have a high-quality data set that contains details of education and career path (over the past 5-10 years) of hundreds of bulge-bracket investment bankers at every level from analyst to MD. (Yes, it has names and such as well, but obviously I’m not sharing those.) It is longitudinal, meaning that it follows these bankers from a certain point in their careers up until today. It also gives a sense as to comparative compensation levels, though no dollar figures there.

Just looking at the initial cut of the data, I see lots of surprises. (The last 10-15% of the data is still being compiled, so I’ll throw hard numbers behind these statements when I have them.)

  • A lot of these people did their undergrad at good state schools. Far more than I expected, at every level. Maybe I shouldn’t worship quite so intently at the HYPS altar.
  • Far more analysts got a direct promotion to associate than I expected.
  • Canadians are everywhere. Some kind of secret fucking society. (Hey Canadians, if you love socialism so much, why did you cross the border to fuel the capitalist juggernaut? How’s that Visa status looking, by the way? Better keep your nose clean or you’ll be back in fucking Saskatchewan cutting lumber with your six brothers before you can say “Tim Hortons”.)
  • Late career is more brutal than it looks. People who leave the firm over 50 almost always take a big step down. People who stay are either the 1/1000 who can ride that bull all the way to the top... or they gradually get put out to pasture. From what I can tell in the data set, it doesn’t look voluntary (i.e., comp/dealflow starts to wane, then two years later they’re either playing poker or they start a boutique shop with two buddies and an analyst and have no dealflow).
  • More associates than I thought come from nontraditional paths (i.e., not straight from the analyst program or b-school.
  • The concept of a two-year analyst program is just that: a concept. The actual tenure of people hired into traditional two-year programs varies from that ideal by quite a bit.

There are more surprises here, but I’ll get to them. Let me ask you: what sort of queries should we run on this to answer some of the eternal debates here?
Some examples of questions we could answer:

  • Average/max age upon entering business school?
  • Is business school necessary?
  • What percent of people who start a two-year analyst program actually finish it?
  • What percent of analysts actually accomplish a 2+2 banking/PE combo?
  • Which b-schools will get you there? (So far, this looks pretty traditional. I think the point may go to Brady on this one.)
  • How many chicks make it to MD, and is comp similar to males?
  • How many chicks make it past analyst? Associate?
  • Ditto Asians/Indians (would take some doing since I don't have ethnicity data in the set, but could be done).
  • On average, how many Wall Street firms do people work for over their careers?

Thoughts?

EDIT: By the way, don't bother asking a question if you're not ready for the answer. This hasn't happened yet, but I fully expect someone to start dissing the data if the answer isn't what they want/expect to hear. (This ain't my first time at that particular rodeo, kids.)

Going deep into sampling methodology would risk burning my source, not to mention myself. So folks will have to take me at my word that the sampling method is sufficiently strong. If you don't take me at my word, don't ask the question.

The entire point of statistical sampling is to cut through existing bias, not confirm it. So if you just want some stats to confirm your belief, it's probably easier to just play senior banker (or WSO monkey) and make up some stats that sound right to you.

See my other WSO blog posts
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Comments

melvvvar's picture

by 30, 90% washout rate.

(King Kong, 1,693
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:03pm

by 30, 90% washout rate. among 20 personal IBD acquaintances, 2 made it to MD, 9 washed out at VP/associate level, the rest left as analysts. two left before their first year was up. VP GS salary, around 500K at the peak in '07. asians and indians don't do well in the long run. biggest successes skipped bschool.

Beretta's picture

- Racial make up of bankers

ST
(Orangutan, 358
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:02pm

- Racial make up of bankers vs demographics of the country
- Where bankers live (do they all migrate to Greenwich?)

If you can do those two, that'll be great.

Neighbor's picture

An insightful bankerella

IB
(King Kong, 1,236
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:08pm

An insightful bankerella post........................what's happening here

I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

monyet's picture

There is an urban myth at

O
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:22pm

There is an urban myth at Wharton that you don't beed an MBA after Wharton undergrad, does your data back that up ? Also, I have a sneaking suspicion that there isn't much point in going to an undergrad business school. How do Wharton undergrands compare to hyps grads (especially the HYPS grads that went back from an MBA) ?

ladubs111's picture

Pie chart of Target,

IA
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:29pm

Pie chart of Target, non-target, semi-target so that shit can be finally buried deep for another year. As well as MBA tier break down % so that shit can be buried for 6 months. And maybe for fun # of marriages on average per each level for shits and giggles plz (guessing MD would be like 2, 1st year analyst would be 0)

Ben Shalom Bernanke's picture

bankerella: Better keep your

AM
(King Kong, 1,423
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:37pm
bankerella:

Better keep your nose clean or you’ll be back in fucking Saskatchewan cutting lumber with your six brothers before you can say “Tim Hortons”.)

haha

bankerella's picture

monyet: There is an urban

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 1:46pm
monyet:

There is an urban myth at Wharton that you don't beed an MBA after Wharton undergrad, does your data back that up ? Also, I have a sneaking suspicion that there isn't much point in going to an undergrad business school. How do Wharton undergrands compare to hyps grads (especially the HYPS grads that went back from an MBA) ?

Now there's a very good set of questions. I'm aware of that myth on the street as well.

My hunch from personal experience is that Wharton undergrads do become direct-promotes at higher rates but peter out in mid-career. (However, one thing that this exercise has shown me is that years of personal observations are still nowhere near as accurate as a real data set, because we tend to observe and remember things that confirm the beliefs we started with.)

There is a substantial subset of Wharton undergrads in this sample, so I'll look at 'em and tell you guys what I find.

See my other WSO blog posts

bankerella's picture

ladubs111: Pie chart of

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:02pm
ladubs111:

Pie chart of Target, non-target, semi-target so that shit can be finally buried deep for another year. As well as MBA tier break down % so that shit can be buried for 6 months. And maybe for fun # of marriages on average per each level for shits and giggles plz (guessing MD would be like 2, 1st year analyst would be 0)

I like the pie chart idea. Do you guys care about the whole population or just the analysts? I ask because it looks like analysts are more likely to be from a target than MDs. This could be a function of the fact that recruiting standards (and percent/number of Americans going to college) have changed a lot over the last twenty years.

Also, please, somebody throw me a clue on semi-targets. WTF is a semi-target? I've been peripherally involved with recruiting in one way or another for my whole fucking career, and I still don't comprehend the semi-target distinction.

Target school: has a team of alumni working at the firm who go back to recruit. We do EISs and talks, conduct first rounds on campus, and generally try to get as many of our people in the door as possible, whether summer or full-time.

Non-target school: Maybe a resume drop, maybe nothing. We don't go there, we don't have an alumni team, etc.

Semi-target school: Everything in between? Or we might go do first-rounds there in order to round out our full-time program?

Someone break it down for me in a way my miniscule reptilian brain can comprehend. Or upload a list. Or just admit that nobody really knows how to define semi-target, and that the whole population of colleges is a spectrum with HYPS on one end and DeVry on the other.

See my other WSO blog posts

Tommy Too-toned's picture

Riddle me this...how many

(Gorilla, 505
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:04pm

Riddle me this...how many people leave the biz to open places like Double or Muffin?

GS's picture

bankerella: Now there's a

ST
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:04pm
bankerella:

Now there's a very good set of questions. I'm aware of that myth on the street as well.

My hunch from personal experience is that Wharton undergrads do become direct-promotes at higher rates but peter out in mid-career. (However, one thing that this exercise has shown me is that years of personal observations are still nowhere near as accurate as a real data set, because we tend to observe and remember things that confirm the beliefs we started with.)

There is a substantial subset of Wharton undergrads in this sample, so I'll look at 'em and tell you guys what I find.

Thx. Pls do

couchy's picture

would be awesome if the pie

(King Kong, 1,365
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:07pm

would be awesome if the pie chart is just analyst level. Most people here don't even want to make it up to MD on the sell-side.

S&T, ER pie charts would be cool also if you had the data

SirTradesaLot's picture

Are you only looking at IBD

 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:16pm

Are you only looking at IBD or does it include other areas of the bank? If including other areas, I would love to see if Quants have lower career ceilings than others. Most people believe this to be true.

Turbo leverage for capital explosion -- BD Capital

My WSO Blog

capitalizeddisinterest's picture

you got some balls dropping

(Monkey, 55
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:09pm

you got some balls dropping the gloves at canadians like that. of all the different groups trying to get visas, youre gunna chirp canadians? word to the wise if i wanted to keep my nose clean and i met someone with 6 lumberjack brothers i would probably shut up. dont ever again let me catch you speaking the words tim hortons... we have people everywhere, now you know

HarvardOrBust's picture

Would be interesting to

PE
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:09pm

Would be interesting to see:
1. School break down
2. Number of analysts who make it to PE, then differentiate between megafund, large MM, MM, lower MM
3. Number of analysts who make it to HF

harvardgrad08's picture

great post bankerella...this

CD
(Gorilla, 606
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:09pm

great post bankerella...this is the type of thread that is extremely valuable for the WSO community.

BTbanker's picture

bankerella: Semi-target

IB
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:18pm

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

happypantsmcgee's picture

Best post in months, really

O
(Almost Human, 9,621
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:24pm

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford

ladubs111's picture

bankerella: ladubs111: Pie

IA
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:43pm
bankerella's picture

capitalizeddisinterest: you

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 2:55pm

See my other WSO blog posts

Bonus's picture

Hey, great thread! What about

(Monkey, 61
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:14pm

Colourful TV, colourless Life.

ladubs111's picture

Now most of them Canadians

IA
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:17pm
Unforseen's picture

I going to assume the CDN

(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:25pm

Check out my Blog

duffmt6's picture

Bravo. Would love to see an

IB
(Neanderthal, 2,325
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:34pm

"Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday."
-Eddie

Going Concern's picture

area chart showing percentage

(King Kong, 1,696
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:34pm

And I think it's gonna be a long, long, time

bankerella's picture

duffmt6: Bravo. Would love

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:45pm

See my other WSO blog posts

UFOinsider's picture

bankerella: Thoughts? bank

O
(Human, 10,347
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 3:55pm

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

bankerella's picture

UFOinsider: bankerella: Tho

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 4:05pm

See my other WSO blog posts

UFOinsider's picture

bankerella: UFOinsider: b

O
(Human, 10,347
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 4:13pm

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

BigMac14's picture

You clearly know nothing

(Chimp, 7
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 4:09pm
bankerella's picture

UFOinsider: Ok, so fairly

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 4:34pm

See my other WSO blog posts

monyet's picture

double

O
 
Points)
 on 8/28/12 at 10:21am
UFOinsider's picture

bankerella: UFOinsider: Ok,

O
(Human, 10,347
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 4:57pm

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

bankerella's picture

UFOinsider: bankerella: U

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 5:19pm

See my other WSO blog posts

sayandarula's picture

bankerella: Edit: Sorry, I

O
(King Kong, 1,811
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 5:43pm

Money Never Sleeps? More like Money Never SUCKS amirite?!?!?!?

Firefox's picture

bankerella: capitalizeddisi

HF
(Orangutan, 274
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:00pm
Firefox's picture

double

HF
(Orangutan, 274
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:04pm
monyet's picture

Pancakes: bankerella: cap

O
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:05pm
bankerella's picture

Pancakes: Clearly, you have

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:08pm

See my other WSO blog posts

Going Concern's picture

monyet: Pancakes: bankere

(King Kong, 1,696
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:08pm

And I think it's gonna be a long, long, time

SirTradesaLot's picture

bankerella: Pancakes: Clea

 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:10pm

Turbo leverage for capital explosion -- BD Capital

My WSO Blog

monyet's picture

double post.

O
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:15pm
monyet's picture

All Whartonites have access

O
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:22pm
TechBanking's picture

bankerella: capitalizeddisi

EN
(King Kong, 1,107
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:30pm
watersign's picture

how many have no college at

(Baboon, 130
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:24pm

alpha currency trader wanna-be

watersign's picture

how many have no college at

(Baboon, 130
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:24pm

alpha currency trader wanna-be

bankerella's picture

watersign: how many have no

IB
(King Kong, 1,863
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:29pm

See my other WSO blog posts

UFOinsider's picture

Going

O
(Human, 10,347
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:46pm

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

El_Mono's picture

Well, what a nice post,

IB
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:47pm

Valor is of no service, chance rules all, and the bravest often fall by the hands of cowards. - Tacitus

Dr. Nick Riviera: Hey, don't worry. You don't have to make up stories here. Save that for court!

Going Concern's picture

UFOinsider: Going

(King Kong, 1,696
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 6:51pm

And I think it's gonna be a long, long, time

illiniPride's picture

Correlation between comp and

IB
(King Kong, 1,099
 
Points)
 on 8/22/12 at 7:06pm

Leadership can be defined in two words: "Follow Me"

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