2015 Fantasy Football Thread

So the 2015 NFL season will be starting pretty soon along with everyone's favorite office pastime. I will be in several leagues this year between my coworkers, college buddies, and childhood friends. Seeing as how this is WSO with supposedly the best in the valuation business frequenting this site, I want to hear your thoughts on which players to draft and which players to avoid (I'll try not to name all the undisputed superstars).

Below are some guys on my draft radar right now. I think this year's RB class is especially thin, so more attention needs to be paid to that position than the others.

Mark Ingram (RB) -- currently listed as a late 2nd rounder by ESPN draft boards. He's had more than his share of injuries in the past, but hopefully those are behind him. He looked really good throughout the first half of last season and I think the Saints will lean on him more this year as opposing teams try to limit the NO passing game. I might even take him with an early 2nd round pick if I have to.

Frank Gore (RB) -- yes, he's old, but he's still managed to be productive despite his age and now he's playing with the best QB he's ever had. Indy has proven to be a RB-friendly team as Ahmad Bradshaw was a top-6 RB last year until he got injured.

Todd Gurley (RB) -- this is more of a speculative pick, but the upside is definitely there. Will probably need to draft Tre Mason as insurance, too.

Joseph Randle (RB) -- Dallas O-line is the truth. Won't be as productive as DeMarco Murray last year, but will be close. Not worried about Darren McFadden eating into his production.

Tevin Coleman (RB) -- ATL run game will be productive as the Falcons like to run it in the red zone. Will need to handcuff him with Devonta Freeman, though.

Martavis Bryant (WR) -- people are focusing too much on Antonio Brown.

Victor Cruz (WR) -- ditto the above with Odell Beckham Jr.

Brandin Cooks (WR) -- always dicey drafting a Saints WR since Drew Brees spreads the ball around so much, but the loss of Jimmy Graham is significant.

So how about you guys? Thoughts?

 
Best Response

These are my dirty secrets to killing fantasy drafts. I draft based on high VOR, projected points floor, low risk (injury and stan dev). Rookies are risky and don't have any past nfl stats to go off so they aren't valued high in the analytics app. http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/ http://www.thehuddle.com/2015/nfl/nfl-depth-charts.php http://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=1&PosID=10&LeagueID= http://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=1&PosID=30&LeagueID=

My steals (players you can grab later with higher than expected value):

Nelson Agholor: Last year Philly's top two receivers Matthews and Maclin killed it. This guy is Philly's WR2 this year

Martavis Bryant: Tall Touchdown grabber, also see design's post

Ameer Abdullah: Will be Detroits starting RB

Alfred Blue: Starting RB for Texans atm and likely for the beginning of the season, you can also draft Arian Foster late since he's injured and won't play at the beginning of the season but when he's back you'll have the 2014 5th best fantasy RB

Latavius Murray: I'd say he's the best bet to be this year's DeMarco Murray or Le'Veon Bell, next would be Joseph Randle

Cam Newton: If you miss Luck or Rodgers just wait til the 7th or 8th round and get Newton who was a machine until last year where his production suffered due to injuries

Anquan Boldin: Old reliable. SF's WR1

Marques Colston: Drew Brees' WR2, also see design's post

 

Someone who is undervalued due to his lack of starts is Martellus Bennett. He is not Gronk or Jimmy Graham but he is very undervalued for ADP, especially considering the amount of targets he averages (that will only increase due to an absence in Brandon Marshall).

Also, Doug Martin needs to prove himself in his starter role. However, the one advantage he has proven is that while uninjured, his performance has never gotten worse with a weak offensive line and bad quarterback (not saying Winston will be). You should not pick him early in anyway but for where he is going, he is being undervalued.

I know I am going on a limb but they are two truly underrated players for their round selection.

 

I don't particularly like Ingram (injuries), Gore (age + additions of Andre Johnson and Dorsett), Randle (someone will reach), and Cooks (Drew Brees always spreads it around). Gurley is worth the risk. Before the draft he was a top-5 talent.

Look at Carlos Hyde with the 49ers going back to running the ball. Alfred Morris had a down year and was still impressive (I would take him ahead of Ingram). Ameer Abdullah will get a ton of touches this year because he'll start. Take Doug Martin late because if he gets back to his rookie year form that will be the steal of the draft.

 

I'm surprised Melvin Gordon hasn't gotten a mention yet with the Gurley hype. Gurley is coming off a torn ACL which makes him a fairly risky proposition until he gets some games in... I'm not so sure if I'd reach for him, but he's definitely got the most upside of any rookie RB. Ryan Mathews was averaging 22 cpg in that offense, so the workload potential is there for Gordon if he learns how to block/receive.

I agree with Ingram and Gore, which could be pretty decent late 2nd-3rd round steals depending on your league.

I'm a Niners fan and I don't know if I would reach for Boldin even if you think he'll have a bounce back year. The team as a whole is extremely shaky and Kaep's play is suspect. I'd put him in the mid 30's for WR rankings.

Calvin Johnson has dropped in ADP to WR5-7 roughly, making him a pretty good value.

Amari Cooper has looked amazing this preseason. I think he'll be this year's ODB/Mike Evans.

 

Same thing happened to me 4 seasons ago when I drafted Peyton Manning with my 2nd round pick and he ended up getting neck surgery and sat out the entire season. I just watched the waiver wire like a hawk and ended up scooping Eli Manning up after week 2. Not sure why he was dropped, but that season ended up being his best season statistically. He threw for almost 5,000 yards and was a top-4 QB. So all is not lost for you. WR is probably the easiest position to find production, too.

But yeah, having the draft too early is just stupid. We have ours the Wednesday night before the season starts now.

 

Underrated Players:

(QB) Colin Kaepernick: San Fran is gonna suck this year, so I expect tons of garbage points. Plus he apparently worked out his accuracy with QB experts, so he may be a true dual-threat.

Tyrod Taylor: With his impressive preseason, he may win out the starting gig for Buffalo. His game is very similar to Michael VIck, low risk high reward player IMO

(RB) Doug Martin: His coaches have been publicly supporting him as their true #1 pick

Justin Forsett: He's going to be a top 3 fantasy back this year

(WR)

I agree with the guys above, Nelson Agholor and Brandin Cooks are both really solid.

Also Indy's really liking Phillip Dorsett, watch out for him

P.S. If no one in your league is drafting Arian Foster, draft him. He may come back for half the season. And when he does, you get a new RB1

 

design Nice work on getting this thread up and running. I enjoyed last year's thoroughly.

Opportunity I liked that analytics link, I am a big believer in taking advantage of ADP

One resource I have used the past 2 years coming in 3rd and 1st of 12 teams is Silva's top 200 from Rotoworld. It's free and the guy does alot of research and he updates it 3 or 4 times up until kickoff. The list is call Goal Line Stand.

Right now a few guys I'm targeting include:

WR:Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordan Matthews, Andre Johnson, Nelson Agholor RB: Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, TJ Yeldon, Tre Mason QB: Brees, Stafford, Newton TE: Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green/Antonio Gates

 

Another guy I'd recommend is Brian Quick. He's going undrafted in a lot of leagues. He had a mini "breakout" stretch of games during the first half of last year before he separated his shoulder and had to sit out the remainder of the season (this was with Austin Davis throwing him the ball, too...Nick Foles is an upgrade for sure). Definitely a low-risk, high upside play to draft him late as he's the closest thing the Rams have to a #1 receiver.

 

@BobTheBaker Forsett's gonna be great for 3 main reasons: 1) New o-coordinator is Marc Trestman, and he loves using ONE back, and getting the RB involved heavily in the passing game (That's why Forte broke catching records last year). 2)He was the 8th best RB last year, and he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season 3)I honestly don't think there's 3 other RBS better than him. Everyone else is injury prone, coming of an injury, or inconsistent

 

You don't think there are 3 tbs better than Forsett who was a backup journeyman his whole career before last year freebrady ? Lemme give u 3 easy, Peterson, Bell, Lynch. You can add Charles/ Arian Foster when healthy... Let's not get carried away. Forte has always been a ppr monster even before trestman.

Array
 

I'd go with Rivers and Robinson.

Newton has no receivers to throw to and I'm reading that Jacksonville D is actually going to be pretty good this year. Also, Carolina is looking to limit Newton's running to minimize the risk of injury. Rivers is facing Detroit, which is a good defense, as well, but Rivers is guaranteed a high volume of pass attempts and he's playing at home where his TD:INT ratio is solid.

Going with Robinson is a gut call. I'd say neither matchup is favorable, and even though Maclin has the better QB throwing him the ball, Smith won't bomb it deep for him and it's going to be short dink-and-dunk stuff. Robinson will benefit from the absence of Julius Thomas. Maclin will have the higher floor, but Robinson will have the higher ceiling. Depends on your risk profile.

 
Cardinal:

Start Joseph Randel or Isaiah Corwell this week? Also does Ashlon play???

In terms of workload, Crowell will dominate the backfield touches for the Browns. They traded away Terrance West and Duke Johnson is dealing with a concussion. The problem is the Cleveland offense just isn't very good and they're facing a solid Jets defense. Even though Randle hasn't been declared the out-and-out starter for the Cowboys and Jason Garrett has said he will be splitting carries with Darren McFadden and Christine Michael, I'd still be leaning toward starting Randle.

As for Alshon, I have no idea if he will be playing, but I have him in one of my leagues and for me it's pretty simple -- if he's playing, I'm starting him. I expect the Packers to jump out to a big lead and Jay Cutler will be slinging the rock all over the field in garbage time. He'll probably throw 3 picks, but he'll also throw one or 2 TD's. I also had the roster space to pick up Eddie Royal (who's dealing with his own injury) off the waiver wire, so I have a bit of insurance (also have Jordan Matthews chilling on my bench if neither of the Bears WR's can play...I guess a case can be made to start Matthews regardless. I'll think it over some more).

freddyflintstone:

Opinions on Frank Gore outlook now that he's on pitch count?

I have him in 2 of the 4 leagues I'm in and I'm still rolling with him as my flex in week 1. Remember, Ahmad Bradshaw was playing behind Trent Richardson last season and he was still very productive with the limited number of times he touched the ball. The Indy offense is very RB-friendly because defenses have to respect all the weapons they have in the passing game, so I expect that Gore will be efficient with his touches.
 

QB- Drew Brees: Loyalty. I've had him on my team 5 years in a row. RB1- Jamaal Charles: here's to hoping RB2- Justin Forsett: Stud last year, hopefully a stud this year WR1- Calvin Johnson: Was able to snag for good value WR2- DeAndre Hopkins: Not sure why I felt like he would be a good idea TE- Jimmy Graham: Gronk was taken and I overpay for good TEs W/R/T- Steve Smith Sr: Solid performance last year, hoping he produces again K- Matt Bryant DEF- Panthers: for week one at least since they're playing the LAGuars

Roddy White and Julius Thomas sitting on my bench currently with a few no names.

Thoughts on how screwed I am?

 

It's not a bad roster and you should be happy with DeAndre Hopkins as your WR2. He's actually my WR1 in one of my leagues (it was an auction draft and I spent big money on Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, and Gronk, so I had nothing left for WR's). Hopkins had Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, and Case Keenum throwing him the ball last year and he still eclipsed 1,200 yards receiving. This was with Andre Johnson still on the team, too. He's in Indy now. Hopkins will have a good season as the Texans #1 receiver. I don't like Steve Smith as your flex, but then again, I generally don't like WR's as my flex and prefer a RB in that slot.

 

I think the Colts offense in general just played uncharacteristically bad. I'm not sure how much of that was Rex Ryan's defense, but I don't think this is the start of a trend by any means for Indy. In regards to Gore, he will play well if Luck plays well and vice versa. I'll be benching him until he shows me something, though.

In the 2 leagues I had Gore as my flex starter in, I had Bishop Sankey on the bench in one and James Jones in the other. Hurts...

 

The two guys I'll be adding week 2:

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati TE - 9 receptions on 12 targets for 100+ yards and 2 TD. That's with AJ Green and other relevant receivers in the game at the same time. He's a tall super athletic guy that some think could reach Gronk status

Chris Johnson, Arizona RB - Andre Ellington might be out for a little bit. He got more carries than the other backup, David Johnson. Chris is a veteran former star RB

Honorable Mentions:

Kendall Wright, Tennessee WR - 4/4 on targets for 100+ yards and 1 TD. This guy and Bishop Sankey are probably already owned but if they're not (he isn't in one of my leagues) they're good options due to Delanie Walker (Ten TE) suffering a hand injury

Stevie Johnson, Percy Harvin - great football players, excellent wk1 production

Flukes (Guys I think over performed and will most likely regress to the mean):

James Jones, Green Bay WR - He was 4/4 on targets for 2 TD's and 50 yards. He had less targets than Davante Adams (better pick up than Jones IMO) and Randall Cobb (who's the man for GB right now). Aaron Rodgers is such a good QB that any TE or WR any given week can catch 1 or 2 TD but that guy will likely change the next week. Only the top dogs you can rely on consistently. Also this is the WR3 so there are 2 guys being looked at before him

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay TE - This guy was a trendy sleeper pick during drafts and had a huge first game of 5/7 targets 100+ yards and 2 TD. I think he benefitted from playing a crap defense. If you watched the game you saw how he was practically handed a huge TD pass. More importantly he benefitted from the absence of their star WR Mike Evans. He's a good player but I don't think he'll have another game like that

 

Wow, this past week was brutal for me and I think for the majority of fantasy owners, as well. DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, and Keenan Allen put up some horrendous numbers for me. In another league, I had Tony Romo, Eddie Lacy, and Tevin Coleman -- all 3 went down with injuries (Coleman got me a TD before his exit, bless him). Just wow...

 

Can someone give me some decent last place humiliating things for people to do? Commissioner has to commish after all.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

As a Penn State alum, I took Allen Robinson in a couple leagues because I'm a homer. However, I am hoping his first half last week is a sign of things to come.

As an Eagles fan, I also drafted DeMarco Murray, cause #inChipItrust. I didn't even think about how him and Lesean McCoy are two TOTALLY different backs. Chip's offense looks like DeMarco is doomed for failure, not to mention his injury.

That being said I am 1/10 and 2/12 in my two big money leagues, cause, Gronk.

 

So many players just went off this week...All of my league scoreboards look completely jacked up. Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Devonta Freeman, Joseph Randle, LeGarette Blount, and Cardinals D all were huge difference makers. I had the misfortune of going up against Devonta Freeman in a couple leagues, but I had guys like Tyrod Taylor, Frank Gore, and Keenan Allen who were able to negate most of the damage. I also stashed Rishard Matthews on my bench and I'll probably throw him into the starting lineup next week. Dude looks like a garbage-time stud.

 

I dunno. I can't see Luck being this bad for the rest of the season and I also can't see Julio being this good for the rest of the season. 34 catches through 3 games...that sounds pretty unsustainable. At that rate, he'd shatter Marvin Harrison's single season record of 143 by about 40 catches. Additionally, the prospect of having to start Jameis Winston is not very comforting (you should see if guys like Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, and Derek Carr are on the waiver wire first before you consider this trade).

 

I tend to agree with what you've said above but here is the contrary view:

Maclin is the #1 receiver on an offense that took over 1 full season of games to get a WR a touchdown catch (albeit without him on the team last year). Historically, Andy Reid has been pass heavy but Alex Smith doesn't seem like he can run a dynamic passing offense and seems to want to check down to Charles and Kelce often.

Maclin seems like a guy with a high floor but low ceiling whereas Jones could breakout and finish top 5 in rushing if he is given a high number of carries.

I'm going to hold off on this trade and see how thing shake out this weekend.

 

Opinions on which QB to start for Week 4 in terms of Cam Newton vs Russell Wilson?

Wilson has been fairly disappointing as I started him for 3 weeks now while Cam has been on fire and I benched him. Seahawks are playing the Lions so things could take a turn for better for Wilson but they also played the Bears last week and he did ok but not what I expected. What do you guys think?

 

Unfortunately I'm lacking in the Tight End department hoping for some opinions on who to start.

Currently (and have been) starting Kyle Rudolph for my TE spot. Picked up Owen Daniels from the waiver wire. What do you guys think? Daniels did well last game but obviously no guarantees and Kyle Rudolph is statistically a better TE but flopped last game. I'm leaning towards starting Daniels but not sure.

What do you guys think?

 

I have Gronk who's on bye this week, so I was a bit desperate and picked up Maxx Williams. Crockett Gillmore is out for tonight's game and the Steelers are pretty bad at defending the TE position (given up 3rd-most points to TE's so far this year).

If you need a season-long replacement, Antonio Gates is coming back from suspension next week, so he might be a FA in your league right now. Also, see if guys like Eric Ebron or Charles Clay are available. I wouldn't be comfortable using Owen Daniels because Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders take all the targets from Peyton.

 

dropped dolphins D/ST and picked up Oakland against the Bears. Was pleased.

Three straight negs for the former... what the hell

Make Idaho a Semi-Target Again 2016 Not an alumnus of Idaho
 

killaqueeen I'm a lifelong Packer fan and I think that's a bad move. the packers have very few all down weapons (Lacy & Jordy before injuries, Cobb to a lesser extent), and with Lacy & Starks doing well in the run, expect Rodgers to do more blocking than fantasy scoring. I know the argument for him, Quarless is out, he's not widely owned, but the Packers spread the ball around, and so far this year Cobb has been the best to own on fantasy for them. personally, I think Charles Clay (BUF) is a good underappreciated TE if you can get him.

all of that being said, if you just need a TE for one week, you can do a lot worse than Richard Rodgers.

 

The DFS insider trading headline is such a joke. It's just math and having the money to submit enough entries to make money. Any stat guy whether he worked at one of the companies or not could develop a system for drafting teams. It's not like the companies affected actual on-field players' performance. Only then does it become a Pete Rose like game fixing situation. This article points out a good contradiction inherent in DFS sales pitch, however http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/06/fantasy-sports-exec-dr… EDIT: ^sorry for crap source but the article itself is short and touches on relevant points

BTW: I like Kamar Aiken this week as the Ravens new top receiving option since Smith Sr. is out now for a lil while. When I checked earlier this morning his ownership was

 

Don't make either of those trades. Look at how Maclin has performed the past couple games, he's heating up. Even though I really like Mark Ingram and think he's underrated, he's losing goal line carries to CJ Spiller. There's also khiry robinson taking carries away. Chris Johnson is atm the lead back but Ellington is coming back and will get the role back if he doesn't get injured again. These two also have an exciting rookie nipping at their heals, David Johnson. All signs point to committee work. I would only do it if you could trade Allen Robinson for Mark Ingram but I doubt they'll go for it

 
Opportunity:

Don't make either of those trades. Look at how Maclin has performed the past couple games, he's heating up. Even though I really like Mark Ingram and think he's underrated, he's losing goal line carries to CJ Spiller. There's also khiry robinson taking carries away. Chris Johnson is atm the lead back but Ellington is coming back and will get the role back if he doesn't get injured again. These two also have an exciting rookie nipping at their heals, David Johnson. All signs point to committee work. I would only do it if you could trade Allen Robinson for Mark Ingram but I doubt they'll go for it

I think you make a good point about Maclin-Ingram but you're also really just showing the flaws with Ingram and didn't mention how KC does not score any TDs with the passing game.

My take on CJ is that by reading Arians tea leaves, it sounds like he's a CJ guy more than an Ellington guy and he most certainly is not all that high on David Johnson. I am thinking CJ will either emerge as the clear starter over Ellington, or Ellington will just continue to get injured. I'll admit I'm a little overly optimistic CJ fanboy.

 

You're starting Karlos Williams if he plays, but that's not a given. If he can't go, I'm leaning toward Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Hill. I know the Bengals are playing Seattle, but Andy Dalton looks like he's elevated his game this year and that offense is pretty potent. At the very least, I expect Hill to get some short-yardage work.

 

Looking to pick up Ted Ginn Jr. from waivers.

Which drop should I make from my bench?

  • Sammy Watkins for Ted Ginn Jr.

or

  • Owen Daniels for Ted Ginn Jr. (I already have Kyle Rudolph and he was just on bye this past week so he's good to roll for the rest of the season)
 
killaqueeen:

Looking to pick up Ted Ginn Jr. from waivers.

Which drop should I make from my bench?

- Sammy Watkins for Ted Ginn Jr.

or

- Owen Daniels for Ted Ginn Jr. (I already have Kyle Rudolph and he was just on bye this past week so he's good to roll for the rest of the season)

do not drop watkins - especially for those guys

 

Looking for trade advice. Only 1-2 trades get done a year in this league with my friends because all the offers are typically crap/trying to screw the other person over so I don't have a lot of experience with that.

Friend wants to trade Gronk, he picked up Gates last week and picked up Gary Barnidge so he thinks he's set.

I have Jimmy Graham, but he is driving me insane and I wouldn't mind picking up Gronk. 10 person league, I have pretty good WRs and he wants at least one of them. I have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Tavon Austin, Aiken (he wants either Marshall or Fitz + someone else).

My RB's are ok, not great for 10 person league (had Charles). I have Forte, Dion Lewis, Tevin Coleman (kinda worthless with Freeman), CJ Spiller (about to cut him), and C. West (Charles' replacement).

Am I nuts for giving up a great receiver for Gronk when I already have Graham? I'm set on doing it, figure Graham has some value I can trade him away for and its not like I'll be bare at WR.

 
ALF.:

Looking for trade advice. Only 1-2 trades get done a year in this league with my friends because all the offers are typically crap/trying to screw the other person over so I don't have a lot of experience with that.

Friend wants to trade Gronk, he picked up Gates last week and picked up Gary Barnidge so he thinks he's set.

I have Jimmy Graham, but he is driving me insane and I wouldn't mind picking up Gronk. 10 person league, I have pretty good WRs and he wants at least one of them. I have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Tavon Austin, Aiken (he wants Marshall/Fitz + someone else).

My RB's are ok, not great for 10 person league (had Charles). I have Forte, Dion Lewis, Tevin Coleman (kinda worthless with Freeman), CJ Spiller (about to cut him), and C. West (Charles' replacement).

Am I nuts for giving up a great receiver for Gronk when I already have Graham? I'm set on doing it, figure Graham has some value I can trade him away for and its not like I'll be bare at WR.

Gronk is worth a lot of value but given your team situation I would hold. You are giving up your wr1 and wr2 plus 1. Reports are saying SEA to plan to get Jimmy the ball more - hope for the best. He definitely has a lot of upside.

 

I would make the trade for Gronk. At most you can only play 3 receivers a week making one of them basically useless each week. Only your starters can score for you. Having the best TE who will out score most or all of those WR's each week is huge. If it isn't a PPR league get rid of Dion Lewis. New Englands running backs are too boom or bust for me to even consider starting.

 

Yeah, I ended up making the deal last week, Fitz for Gronk straight up (highway robbery, IMO, but the other guy had trash WRs). Like you said, having the best TEis great,even when he is "down" puts up pretty good numbers.

Yeah Lewis has been disappointing as of late, and rolling with NE RBS is iffy. Part of the reason I made the deal was that my RBS were pretty below average for a 10-person league after Charles got hurt and figured Gronk would have more trade value than Fitz, by himself or as a piece, and worse come to worse I can trade him and still have Graham on my team (as frustrating as he has been).

 

Picked up Christine Michael and Ahmad Bradshaw in all the leagues I had space for them in. Michael will be getting more carries and might supplant Joseph Randle as the starter while Bradshaw was signed by the Colts to fill his old role as the change-of-pace and 3rd-down back.

 

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