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April 30, 2024
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I don't work at BS but you're an idiot. Sure it's embarrassing for them (even though they only had $40 mil invested) but this was far from the big market mover today considering the news that ML was going to seize their assets has been out for a few days already. And the fact the funds haven't really collapsed yet.
you are an idiot...because actually look at the dow graph and what happened when this anonymous person said that ML would not auction the collateral...and actually today the auction was going to happen. so shut up...
To pinpoint just one factor for an entire days worth of trading is not the smartest move. The biggest reason why this is a (relatively) big market mover is because if the securities the hf holds are auctioned off for cheap, other banks and hfs will have to adjust their marks on similar products (the stuff those guys hold are not liquid). So every bank has an incentive to not do anything stupid and hurt themselves.
There are bigger reasons for market movement (the carry for one). I would attribute the advance in the asia markets yesterday for the action today. If you want a good graph check out dbv vs. spy. If you use carry as a barometer for cheap credit you can see that is a far more important mover of markets. I can see how the bear trade affects sentiments though.
As for bear...don't see any reason to feel embarrassed. The HF probably does as simply put they blew up. Its never something to be proud of but the end economic (and for that matter reputation) damage to Bear is minimal.
Yes its important but everyone on the street knew ML wasn't going to be doing a firehouse sale (rumor has it that they did so in order to get BS to cough up cash to the HF but thats rumor). If ML did do it they would face backlash from both within and outside the firm. No one wants to end this party. ML had been threatening to do so for a while (which killermike does point out although his execution was poor) so the market knew where they stood on this issue (and why they were pursuing it). Thats why I doubt that was a big market mover.
In terms of fresh rumor, word is that another whale has blown up and news will hit the wires soon.
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