Generating Investment Ideas...
Ideas? Websites? Where do you guys get your info from to generate investment ideas? Not just for ideas, but I daily check dealbook, wsj, abnormal returns. honestly I need help and when hedge fund interviews start i want to be able to have 2-3 stock pitches at anytime. im mostly interested in distressed/event driven hairy shit that is complicated, so any help in that part would be great.
thanks in advance.
tagging
seekingalpha is good... cmon guys. BUMP
Distressed debt investors, value investors club, seeking alpha
barrons and second distressed debt investing and VIC
save
CapIQ screens
Value Investors Club is great... if you can get admission. Most of the guys on there are actually running money and know their stuff. You can request guest access which has a 45 day delay, still a good resource. In the same vein SumZero is good, but probably not as good/selective as the VIC.
http://www.sumzero.com/
Newsletters are key. The two main ones I read are Value Investors' Insight and Graham and Doddsville. Both have excellent, in depth interviews with very good managers. They typically talk about their top positions, logic behind them, and general lessons they have learned over time. Graham and Doddsville is free but VII is $350 a year.
http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/
Gurufocus is pretty good too.
http://www.gurufocus.com/
I would be careful about Seeking Alpha. Sometimes there are pretty bright people that post on there, sometimes there are guys that think Cramer and Lenny Dykstra are investing greats.
Large institutional managers (100M+) with outside investors have to file 13-F's. Go sec.gov and look up the holdings for the top funds (Baupost, Greenlight, Third Point, Glenview, etc). Most of these mangers write quarterly letters you can get your hands on through dealbreaker, check those out.
http://www.valueinvestorinsight.com/
If you have CapIQ or Bloomberg you can run in depth screens, but that requires access and a good idea on what you want to search for.
If you know what type of funds you will be interviewing for people could probably provide more directed advice. Do you have any interviews lined up yet?
Best of Luck
Investment Ideas - Upcoming interview (Originally Posted: 04/17/2012)
Hi, I have an upcoming interview and would like to prepare some investment ideas.
How do you present such an investment idea? What are the key aspects that you need to talk about? Do you have an example of a good investment idea (can be outdated -just to see how it works)?
Happy about any advice. Thanks in advance
watch cramer - mad money. it's all about how loud you can be. the actual idea doesn't real matter as much as how loud you are. remember that
Look up some presentations that big name investors do to get a feel for how to think through things. Here is one from Einhorn.
http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/10/david-einhorn-short-green-mountain.h…
Obviously its way more than you need but looking at stuff like that will get you in the right frame of mind. Though, I agree, having some awesome sound effects to punctuate your main points will differentiate you from the crowd.... Haha.
Blue horseshoe loves anacott steel. They'll know that you mean business.
pick the 100 most prestigious ideas. then knock out the last 90. then knock out the last 9. and you have the best idea.
What type of investment? Security, bond, real estate, VC....?
Mainly security and bond.
Find a company you like and back it up with industry economics, find a competitive advantage (back it up with financials), and do some sort of earnings projection as well as an assessment of what management has been doing with earnings. If you can't find a company you like then the job is no good for you. That means you don't actually care about the market.
Pick out a few pieces of financial data from the statements or MD&A and speak to how they will be helpful to the company in the coming years. Possibly could follow up with a bit of technical analysis if you want to say the company is at a solid entry point to go long or short or whatever it is you want to do.
Know key industry metrics and how they drive revenue. If you're pitching Mosaic make sure you know prices per tonne and the general trend of where that's been and where it's headed... shit like that. Also some macro knowledge about the company and industry's direction or what your opinion is on it.
Not too difficult really.
Great, very helpful. Any examples on bond investment ideas? how about distressed debt?
Thanks
In all honestly I would guess it's all about how you present it. You could probably sell any Idea if you planned it ahead.
http://www.mebanefaber.com/2011/01/20/hedge-fund-analyst-checklist/
From John Griffin's class. A good framework to go into your interview.
good stuff - thanks for sharing
Investing ideas forum? (Originally Posted: 06/29/2008)
Are there any forums/online communities out there in which people (intelligently) discuss investment ideas, company analysis, and things in that vein? Seems like something the internet would be good for, although all that I've seen so far has been of Yahoo message board quality....
good place to start
Investing ideas (Originally Posted: 01/12/2014)
Would be nice if we could create some section where people can share their investing ideas. To make it interesting, discussions should start with a good pitch about why to invest in a specific stock for example.
Think this could be great!
http://seekingalpha.com/
I know that site, but something like that on WSO would be nice I think.
@"luckyluke", we created a new Investing forum right here: //www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/50081
Enjoy!
Investing idea (Originally Posted: 11/11/2014)
Buying a stock the day before it goes ex-dividend, and write a call option against the stock. You take the dividend, cover the fall in stock price with the option, and pocket the dividend minus fees as profit.
Can this actually be done? I googled it and saw some links on this "covered call around ex-dividend dates" strategy. I wonder what you guys think...
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/11/dividend-capture-strateg…
The issue is that there is a time gap between ex-date and pay date. If the stock drops by more than the amount of the premium and the dividend collected during that time, you will have a loss.
Just an initial reaction.
What if the stock drops to zero? What's your profit then?
Also, do you think other market participants are stupid? If so, check yo self before you wreck yo self.
The call option you wrote can be exercised to collect the dividend you thought you would get, for one of many flaws in your thesis.
Investment Ideas - Key aspects? (Originally Posted: 04/17/2012)
Hi, I have an upcoming interview and would like to prepare some investment ideas.
How do you present such an investment idea? What are the key aspects that you need to talk about? Do you have an example of a good investment idea (can be outdated -just to see how it works)?
Happy about any advice. Thanks in advance
What type of investment?
Hostile takeover of RIM. Shed the entire line of phones and go with a single device like Apple does. Incorporate a more user friendly OS and keep the physical keyboard. Cut the price of the phone in half, then develop the services side of the business. Maybe partner with a CRM software company (ie Salesforce) to develop a built-in mobile app to attract small business employees. Then come up with an ad campaign that convinces people that BB's are for work, and iPhones are for play.
this thread might help you even though it's for HFs... http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/preparing-for-the-hf-informationa…
Trade Ideas Forum (Originally Posted: 12/01/2014)
Are there any websites where users put up their trade ideas/rationale and other users critique the trade ideas with their viewpoint? I know there are a couple where people only put up trade ideas based on technical analysis and the critiques are usually lacking/break down into non-constructive arguments. Looking for one where professionals discuss trade ideas - preferably macro but micro would also be useful for understanding mindset etc.
Seeking Alpha might be a good place to start if you're looking for ideas, although it's not all good, you have to search for the good stuff.
I agree about Seeking Alpha. There are some very good ideas and very smart people that participate in discussions there. There are also quite a few morons. It's up to you to decide who's worth listening to.
http://www.quantopian.com
If you're interested in using sites like Quantopian (there's others too)...visit this site as well: http://quantivity.wordpress.com
This is a very helpful thread. Thanks for the links, guys. Anything on structure necessary for a pitch? That's what I'm struggling with.
VIC, Sumzero
Anyone know any good investing forums? (Originally Posted: 07/04/2013)
I'm looking for a good investment forum online but I cant seem to find anything that great. I've seen hotstockmarket.com and many discussion boards as a part of an investment research website but nothing that great
traderslaboratory.com is quite good.
I feel like everyone there is posting from Taiwan.
bogleheads.org
Traders forum (Originally Posted: 08/08/2007)
What are some good trading forum?
Thanks.
wilmott and nuclearphynance
Both are quant-heavy though. I don't think anyone who hasn't taken some upper-level math/stats (stochastic calculus, namely) and/or worked in a quant-heavy environment will understand much of what's going on.
do you have any forum suggestions, brisbane?
Not really.
trade 2 win
its a board all about trading and you should visit forex factory
just google for the urls
how is elitetrader?
Investing forum? (Originally Posted: 04/29/2010)
I know Michael Burry used to use Silicon Investors, but that place seems like a complete mess (please inform me if I'm mistaken here, maybe the layout takes getting used to?). I know analystforum isn't really for investing per se, and VIC is members only, and the guest portion is not so much a discussion but a nice potpourri of standalone ideas. Does there actually exist a good forum or two out there for people who want to talk about stocks/industries? Something a step (or three) above yahoo message boards? Closest thing I can think of is seekingalpha, but it's not a true forum.
Thanks!
elitetrader is pretty good although a bit more trading vs investing oriented
Best forums for traders and investors? (Originally Posted: 03/22/2014)
Something that is the complete opposite of Yahoo Message Boards? I'd like to bounce off some ideas, and get thoughts on how to approach taking a position in a stock.
Thanks.
Elitetrader is probably the most popular forum for traders. Though there's a lot of scammers and wannabes on there.
VIC then SumZero at a distant second
From what I've seen from both VIC and SZ... an extremely distant second
What does VIC stand for? I Googled the acronym and my search came up as a name for some trader.
Awesome, thanks guys.
I'd through DDIC in there as well
Dunno guys, SZ has gotten a lot better recently, and VIC is good but too insular. I'd throw out a vote for Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax.
VIC by a longshot. SZ is trash, DDIC is pretty good too but less active and a mix of pitches not applicable to retail brokerage accounts.
What forums are out there for Trading? (Originally Posted: 10/05/2007)
What other forums are great for trading? this site tends to have more ibanking users... thanks
i hear you about the disparity of users...
Starting on November 1st I'll be aking a big push to get more finance professionals of all kinds on the site (especially HFs, traders, consultants, PE, etc.)
Until then, it would be great if you could help me recruit more traders by Inviting your Trader Friends to the forum through the invite block on the left.
...and you'll even get 10 bananas for inviting them! (I know, try to contain yourself).
in all seriousness, the site still has a bunch of ways it is going to improve. I want everyone to know I am extremely dedicated to making this the best finance community online and I have reinvested almost every penny I have made so far on ads over the past 1.5yrs into my web developer and making this upgrade happen. there are still a bunch of new features and issues that need to be addressed, but my web developer is only one guy so please be patient.
Thank you for your support. Oh yeah, Jimbo is one of the most frequent users on here and he is a very knowledgeable trader as far as I can tell.
Thanks for all the hard work, this place is great!
great work. hopefully we'll get a few more jimbos and skins on here.
well, i am generally happy to help, but you have to find a fairly rare thing....people with experience who want to help others, without wanting anything in return really (money or knowledge)
thats why we said big up Jimbo!
What did the silly wannabe trader say to Jimbo?
Wannabe: Man, did you see the spread on the Qs? It was tighter than my little sister. Jimbo: Not after I got done with her. Wannabe: ... aww man, that's nasty.
true story.
Investing Forum (Originally Posted: 03/20/2008)
I was thinking that an investing focused forum where we could discuss recent market trends, economic factors, interesting opportunities, etc. would bring a lot of different perspectives to WSO. I would definitely be interested in seeing what my fellow monkeys were investing in, and in sharing my research and ideas with others.
i second this idea
I bought some Visa shares yesterday at 59-a-piece. I have also been an investor in MA since they went public. I think both companies are poised for good long-term growth. And the fact that they are not exposed to credit risk makes them even more attractive given the current market scenario.
Good call on the MA, you must have made a grip of cash. However I'm not sure if the fundamentals support 60 a share for V - I think they have a huge amount of future litigation liability, which was part of the reason they chose to go public. Anyone else want to chime in on this?
great idea
Agreed - there is a lot of untapped knowledge on this board on this topic (and I don't mean of the insider nature).
Litigation issues are definitely troublesome for both Visa and Mastercard. Wouldn't be surprised to see the stock price reflect that in the future either.
So a new forum that just deals with Investing? Don't you guys think this could fall under the Traiders Train Forum? or would it be a Site Specific category (not industry)?
Thanks for the suggestion. Any thoughts on the name and tag line?
Thanks, Patrick
WSO, I think the traders train would deal more with people who are or want to become traders that have questions about how to perform their jobs, or to share tips and tricks about the sales & trading industry.
I see the new Investor's forum being used for company analysis, thoughts on how Fed actions will affect the market, etc.
More people would be interested in it if were accessible from this forum. Would there be a way to access it from the right side of this forum page?
It could be under industry specific or related topics, I think either would work great.
For the title - how about Investors Intuition?
As always, thank you Patrick for your dedication to the site.
EDIT - realized that intuition was not spelled correctly.
Investors Inn?
Ok, I changed the "News - Read All About it!" Forum to "Investment Inn"
A few reasons I did this
...so I hope you don't mind the Investment Inn taking over the News Forum. I figure the activity in this forum could be pretty good since trading strategies and discussions on exotic derivatives can be interesting.
Sounds great. I'm sure no one minds at all. A great addition and improvement to the site.
Trading Website (Originally Posted: 03/30/2012)
My friend and I created a website/blog where we post potential stocks/currencies with our analysis. We are still freshmen, new to the concepts and willing to learn. I would really appreciate it if you guys could visit our site and just offer comments and criticisms.
The website is forexandequitiestrading.blogspot.com
Fuck off
You want technical indicators? I'll give you one. It's all about the Hulkamania http://kiddynamitesworld.com/sp-500-completing-a-hulkamania-formation/
That's a good way to start. Will take a look.
very cool..start writing a daily newsletter too..if its good, you can have a lot of followers on twitter, stock twits etc..
get that technical bullshit out of here and do some real value analysis you fucking noobs.
I'm gonna have to agree. Technical analysis is bullshit for the most part. Sometimes it can help support actual valuation reports, not the other way around.
Not a bad way to start for freshmen.
Thanks for all the positive comments guys!
To those people who said that technical analysis is largely bullshit, what form of analysis would you recommend for day-trading currencies?
Macro movements. Monitoring soverieng CDS spreads. Interest rate movements obviously. Form an opinion on any of these.
Wouldn't these only have an effect over a longer term, such as a day, rather than affecting the profit-making abilities of forex over the course of 15 minutes or an hour?
Basing your strategy off of technical analysis provides you absolutely no edge whatsoever. There is no way you can consistently have any true alpha or consistent profits, especially after fees. Some technical indicator based strategies very very roughly emulate cointegration based pairs strategies or some momentum strategies that could be used during regime shifting and high vol / low liquidity situations, but the methods are too crude to consistently make any money over the long haul without eventually going into ruin.
The best way to make money daytrading currencies as a college student is to not do it. That's probably the best answer you can get.
Thanks a lot for your help mate.
I'm sorry to bother you guys again but, are there any comments on the layout of the website? Any suggestions that you would make (such as moving completed/pending trades to its own page/separate tab)?
Just so you know, MMs own the FX world and any attempts at decent TA there get you completely runover. Read up on the market maker shift (and timezones, going from asia->london->new york) and that's where your most profitable FX trades and ideas should come from. Otherwise, its all stop hunts and noise to get the retail trader's money.
I'm just curious, why is it that the retail trader generally doesn't do well as opposed to wealthy investors and big institutions/hedge funds? Is it because of algorithmic trading?
Two poker players sitting at a table. Player A has $500, Player B has $2. Assuming the same skill level, who wins?
Same scenario as above, except now assume that Player A gets some of the rake back from the house and has been playing cards his entire life. Player B is scared of losing his milk money.
The cards don't have to be stacked for the game to be lopsided.
Leverage, margin, other tricks used by the big boys to steal your lunch.
HFT is a non-existent problem for the retail crowd, unless youre really pissed about not getting filled cause of that bid which was .001 higher than yours. Media likes to discuss algo trading cause its the 'next hot thing' to discuss at the water cooler, but in reality its only an issue for people making markets or institutional players which, apparently in the olden days, dealt with people executing large block orders as opposed to machines.
Anyway, keyword is generally. Retail generally doesn't do well. At least, certainly not in a day trading environment where running stops to the high/low, gaming S/R levels, creating fake rumors, and option pinning on OpEx (how convenient there's weekly options now..) are the name of the game.
What do you recommend for retail investors then, other than equities?
Trade Ideas Forum (Originally Posted: 12/01/2014)
Are there any websites where users put up their trade ideas/rationale and other users critique the trade ideas with their viewpoint? I know there are a couple where people only put up trade ideas based on technical analysis and the critiques are usually lacking/break down into non-constructive arguments. Looking for one where professionals discuss trade ideas - preferably macro but micro would also be useful for understanding mindset etc.
Anyone know any good investing forums? (Originally Posted: 07/04/2013)
I'm looking for a good investment forum online but I cant seem to find anything that great. I've seen hotstockmarket.com and many discussion boards as a part of an investment research website but nothing that great
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