Considering the attention the post by Braverman got regarding the Bronco's enormous point spread and considering this is the best playoff team composition I can remember I thought I'd start off little discussion, as I doubt I'm the only one that's going to be betting on these games.
So we're down to the Niners V. Seahawks, and Peyton V. Brady... I mean Broncos V. Patriots. The Niners and the Seahawks have met twice already this season splitting the series with a Seahawk "Blowout" at the beginning of the season 29 to 3, and a squeaker of a Niners win at 19 to 17. This time around I'm slanting toward the Seahawks, why? Well first it's at their house, some places that doesn't matter but the Seahawk's stadium (which registered two legit earthquakes during Lynch runs this past weekend) is something special.
It's loud, the fans are passionate, and it affects the defense (see San Diego's struggles this past weekend). That coupled with the fact that Kapernick just didn't look that impressive against Carolina. Yes Carolina has a good defense but the Seahawks have a better one, so if he's going to be missing throws and making mistakes against the Jags I shiver at what the Legion of Boom is going to do for him.
With Broncos Vs. Patriots, this is tough. Mainly because Blount has decided to suddenly become an NFL RB, running right over the Colt's defense and carrying the Patriots to a win this past weekend. Grant it Denver's rushing D is far better statistically than Indy's but if they can get any kind of running going it's really going to screw with the coverage the Broncos are going to need against Brady and his ragtag no name receiving core. On Denver's side of things you have Peyton Manning, a mediocre run game, some trustworthy and at times lethal receivers, and Peyton Manning again.
The Pat's D has been mediocre against the pass and awful against the run all season so the matchup against the Defenses definitely goes toward the Broncos. It's also a home game for Denver, which hasn't always helped them in the post season (lost last year to the Ravens at home) but you still have to factor it in. With these two quarterbacks it could go either way, Manning has a better team around him, but Brady has Belichick and his mastermind schemeing......I'd have to give advantage to the Broncos but only slightly (point spread was 6.5 points to the Pat's right after Denver won last night and has since come in to 4).
So what are your guy's thoughts?
seahawks all the way baby
Think that Denver is going to pick them apart on offense, they'll win by 7+.
The other game is going to be great football and I'm really glad this is what the conference championship match-up is. Almost everyone's pre-season picks for top NFC teams and the best two NFC teams all season long. I think the Seahawks home field gives them the SLIGHT advantage, but I also think Kaep > Wilson. Gun to the head I'd take the +3 that some books are giving the 49'ers but I'm just excited to watch it.
I'm a firm believer Manning has no chance against the Patriots because his brain turns to mush around Brady. Plus, the Patriots put up over 40 points against a solid defensive line and held the colts to a low 20ish which is in the ballpark with all the other teams. Manning's line will be something like 280 yds passing, 3 TD, 2 INT. One being returned big by Talib since he's due for one.
Seattle will beat San Francisco without a doubt because they are just too good on defense and I believe they will take the Patriots in the Super Bowl as well. It is their year.
Also, my betting pool at work I had New Orleans who beat spread, so I kept them, and then covered spread but lost. Thus, now I takeover Seattle since New Orleans covered so I need them to kick ass and beat spread both games to rack in the big $$.
Signed Pats fan.
Same scenario in my work pool as well. Nothing like a backdoor cover with the saints
Seattle is the complete package this year. Great D line, fantastic secondary. Outstanding O line with a zone running game led by Lynch. The NFC game is going to be a defensive battle, probably more so than the NO game.
+3 to Denver in the AFC championship game. Ultimately though, they will give up huge pass plays in the Superbowl.
Pete Carroll gets a contract extension fat enough to by a gum factory.
Can we talk about how Seattle's home stadium isn't selling any tickets to people with California zip codes?
haha, really?!?
Amazing
haha love it, think it's only billing addresses wa/or/mt/id/hi/al + BC and alberta
There are only selling tickets to the NW portion of North America (WA, OR, ID, BC, AK). They are not selling tickets to the rest of the country, not just California.
Well, at least they're practicing equal-opportunity dishonesty...
I'm just going to say that the fact that the Patriots have made it this far is incredible. Every team deals with injury each year, but look at this:
The Pats have lost their starting RT, both Pro Bowl TEs in Gronk and Hernandez, All-Pro DL (Wilfork), and All-Pro LB (Jerod Mayo). On top of that, Tom Brady has had to deal with a cast of rookie (Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Aaron Dobson) and cast-off (Austin Collie) receivers, a banged up O-line with Nate Solder missing significant time and LG Logan Mankins starting multiple games at LT. Add to that our top two DBs, Talib and Dennard, have been battling injuries since early October, and our starting interior defensive consists of UDFAs (Joe Vellano) and cast-offs (Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga) ....forgot to mention Kelly to IR, Spikes to IR ("special" reasons), Vereen missed 9 games, Amendola missed 5 games and is still not yet a 100%. Oh and possibly no more Dobson the rest of the year.
Belicheck & McDaniels & Brady is just an incredible combined brain for football. The offense has completely reinvented itself as run-first, which I think gives them a shot against Denver if they can control the clock.
This team feels a bit like the 2001-2002 Pats for some reason. Even with all the injuries above, for the first time in a while the Pats secondary is reasonably healthy and I think they could shock a lot of people, especially if Colins plays out of his mind again.
How can you not bet on Peyton crumbling under pressure against the Pats again? especially in the cold...
And if it is Seattle / Pats in the superbowl, I love having Carroll as the opposing coach. I honestly think SF is the better team (barely) with Wilson/passing game struggling a bit lately. Don't kill me @"AndyLouis", but Carroll is a true bozo...can't believe that Pats survived him coaching for a few years.
hahaha, i'm drinking the Caroll Koolaid, can't deny that he's been a big part of our rise in the last 4 years.
With Wilson. our strong defense, and one of the best GM's in the league (Carroll was involved in hiring him) no reason we won't be a top team for awhile
Lifelong Pats fan here. It does remind me of '01, but everyone is giving Blount WAY too much credit. Living and watching this team every week you realize that these are SYSTEM players, man. Blount can leave next year and he won't do shit anywhere else. It's VERY rare that someone leaves this team and puts up the same kind of numbers. Welker had a great year, but the jury's out on long term. Asante Samuel had a good year or two after leaving, didn't do shit. Woodhead isn't doing shit. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a serviceable second option in Cincy. And McDaniels isn't the brain, it's Belichick. He's an amazing coach, but would he be an A+ coach without an A+ QB falling into his lap, and vice-versa? Who knows. But I won't even get started on the failures of coaches around Belichick who fail when he's not there (and executives - look at Pioli in KC).
All we know is that this is the second youngest team in the league, with WR staff under 5 ft. 11 in., lost ALL of their interior D starters as listed, and we're in the Conference Championship again.
Bottom line, the beauty of parity in the NFL is the best team can go out and get out-coached and stomped any day of the week - no other sport has that.
I agree 100% about the system making the players/team. Everyone seemed so shocked that Edelman had 100 catches this year (I told a few friends that he'd be a sleeper pick in fantasy, especially ppr leagues)...it was either him or injury prone amendola once welker was gone. The point is, the team is incredibly well coached.
While I love Brady's competitiveness and think he is one of the all time greats, by and large to be successful in a Belicheck offense, you have to be smart and accurate. Look what happened when Brady went down and Cassell played all year. They won 11 games that year. 11 EFFING GAMES. somehow i think they missed the playoffs with some crazy tiebreaker shit, but that is besides the point...a lot of brady's success is because of the system (which he admittedly executes better than almost anyone could).
I've always argued that the system in NE is what makes them so good and superbowl contenders year in and year out...they draft smart (relative) and versatile players and make them study their plan.
I think the parity in the league actually makes the last 12 years of Patriots football that much more impressive... people forget how close the Pats were to 2 more Superbowl rings...they lost each by less than 1 score (if my blurred angry memory serves me correct). Look at the Giants and Baltimore now -- that's what is crazy...the Pats have really NEVER regressed to a bad season since Brady and Belicheck took over.
This is the 3rd AFC Championship Game in a row. Just an insane run since 2001. We are now spoiled in Boston with the Bruins also having a good shot at the Cup again this year :-)
Blount is a solid back man, he had serviceable years at Tampa Bay until they drafted Doug Martin. Blount isn't a scrub. Green-Ellis isn't really a second option, he gets as many if not more touches than Giovanni Bernard. Danny Woodhead has been a VERY solid 3rd down back on San Diego (Fantasy steal as well), his numbers this year at San Diego are better than anything he's done on the Patriots. He wasn't exactly tearing it up in New England either... Asante is a system player but Welker, Green Ellis, and Blount are solid offensive player that would definitely play well on different rosters. Besides statistics, Welker is a way better player than Edelman on the field. Asante failed because the Eagles made him play man to man when he played in zone all his career. Coaching is definitely top notch but those players you mentioned arn't exactly scrubs.
Oh, and I've got Seattle - NE in the Super Bowl (although it'll be tough in Denver this week). I think Seattle is just way too strong, though (but remember what they said about the Rams in '01, Patrick?! The start of the dynasty).
Disclaimer: Been a Broncos fan ever since Jake "The Snake" Plummer was at QB.
With that being said, of course I'm taking the Broncos this Sunday. I think too much is given into the whole Brady vs Manning match-up. Last time I checked, Brady wasn't out there defending passes. On offense the Broncos arguably have the best offensive team in the league with Thomas, Decker, Welker and J. Thomas. Also, they have an underrated run game. Moreno is an absolute monster and Ball has finally decided to stop fumbling. Remember Moreno racked over 200+ yards in week 12.
As for the defense, they have been steadily improving and last night's performance was definitely their best. They got to Rivers and stuffed the run. It wasn't until Harris went down with an injury in the second half that finally opened up the passing game because they had to put in Jammer in. Honestly, that guy is a bum. He single handedly almost gave up the game. Hopefully, they move Bailey back out wide and active Carter to play slot because if Jammer is out then we are done for.
Either way it's going to be a great game. I just think the Pat's defense is missing parts and Denver's defense will finally show up.
On the other side, what a match-up. Really pulling for Seattle, but I think 49ers win because of Kaepernick.
Where were you for the Super Bowls? Poor guy...
I don't trust Ball not to fumble. Keep it in Moreno's hands. Our pass game is unstoppable (no wind please). No Von Miller is going to hurt over the middle, but luckily Gronk and Hernandez are out. Chris Harris is done, that's going to hurt against Brady.
With home field advantage, I think we'll pull it out against the Pats. Honestly, I think this is one of the better Championship sets of the last few years.
On the Broncos Pats game: I think you've gotta lay the wood with the Broncos. NE seemed to really benefit from Blount's huge game which I do not think he can possibly repeat as one of the slowest RBS in the NFL (I can't believe this guy is even getting carries). Also, Luck looked completely over matched and Manning will most likely not commit the same kinds of unforced errors.
On Seahawks 49ers: This game was really tough for me to decide but I would take the 49ers to cover much the way the Saints did (depending where you got the line, I had 9.5 right before game time). I don't believe the Seahawks defense is better than the 49ers especially without Browner in the Sea backfield. Both offenses have some dysfunction at times and I think it will be a close game.
The Cowboys.
But in reality, Seahawks and Broncos, Broncos Champs. All 4 teams comparable skill wise, but home field in Seattle is insane (expect another earthquake) and Denver's altitude is always helpful. As for Superbowl, it's a toss up really. If Seattle can force a few turnovers (usually unpredictable) then they can win, but money on Broncos.
-A sad Cowboys fan. Romo is good, I swear...
Mile High was getting pretty loud yesterday, too. Chargers had to call a couple of timeouts to clear shit up. The difference when Manning was on the field vs Rivers blew my mind. I could hear PFM easily, couldn't hear shit from Rivers. Probably won't have as big of an effect on the Pats, but it could play a role.
...keeping in mind that New England fucking hates Pete Carroll, too. His stint in NE was a joke.
@"WallStreetOasis.com" @"Cruncharoo" @"AndyLouis" Yes, really. Serious dick move, though. The Nats used to do the same thing to Pennsylvania residents to keep Phillis fans out.
For the Pats-Broncos both QBs almost cancel each other out so it comes down to which defense can create the most turnovers. I like the Broncos receiving corps better but Brady has a way of making any receiver amazing. If it comes down to the 4th quarter my moneys on Brady who's the comeback king.
My money is on the Broncos and Seahawks.
everyone keeps talking about seattle's defense and forgetting about how inept their offense actually has been over the last few weeks. arizona didn't "get lucky" and beat seattle at centurylink. all the talk has been about the stadium and the defense. check russell wilson's performance that second half of the saints game.
This is actually concerning. The passing game needs to improve this weekend. We are lucky that the defense has been playing lights out and the run game is doing well.
Wilson will be more accurate (on slants especially) and Tate/Baldwin/Kearse/Miller will get open.
just praying for cold at Mile High
In the cold? Games at 1pm MT. High of 60 expected. Will most likely be above 45 the entire game.
shit.
Colin Kaepernick will have nightmares this week about what Sherman and Thomas are going to do to his receivers.
24-13 Seahawks. Wilson will be very pedestrian (again) but that's all they'll need after Kaepernick gets wrecked.
On the AFC side, I'll take the Pats 34-28 because, well, it's Peyton Manning in the playoffs.
In 2005 Peyton and the Colts set some sort of record (I think it was TD passes, which Brady broke in 2008 and then Manning re-broke this year) and they lost in the most horrific fashion, a missed 46 yd wide right FG to tie the game after stripping Jerome Bettis at the goal line. The two years before that, the Pats wrecked him (albeit in snowy Foxborough). And we all remember last year. He was lucky to get the Bears the year they won the SB. January is a terrible time for Peyton.
I have to agree, I'm saying Kaep throws 2 INTs during the game and that's the deciding factor for the Seahawk win.
Hope Harvin can play this weekend. Go Hawks!
Seahawks by 7 points. Denver by 3.
NFC:
Seattle is extremely beatable even in that environment. Regardless, people are overstating the effect of crowd noise on professional football players. Also, Russell Wilson looked like complete shit against New Orleans.
A lot will depend on the refs. Sherman and the rest of their secondary is dirty as all fuck, and NFL refs generally let a lot go in the playoffs. However, the NFL has made it clear they don't want any discrepancy from the way games are officiated in the regular season.
AFC:
Broncos got this. They are going to win the Super Bowl.
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