Energies on Feb 10th
Crude is coming off a bit in the early part of the trade as wti is under $86.80 this morning with WTO spreads still bearish as the Mar/April trades -340. The contango keeps on widening in the Brent as March brent is over March wti by a staggering $15. This is truly unheard of but as one can see the brent is much stronger than the wti. The Cushing story has not gone away as there is oversupply in this market. I have heard whispers of the April/May contract headed for -600 as spreads will continue to get weak. This would only put a damper on the wti's parade. Look for $85 to be support today but I wouldn't be surprised if crude tried to go down there.
Daniel Cronin, Energies Guru
First, I am neutral/bullish on crude tmr (for technical reasons), and bullish the coming week, with or without Mubarak. I agree consensus of total storage at Cushing OK range between 38 MMbbls to 42 MMbbls, and we're at 37.4 MMbbls. It's cutting pretty close. But does carry really cost 6 bucks? are we really that worried about over supply? Yesterday DoE report, the build in stock is at PADD 5 for maintenance reasons. It will be more like API report otherwise. Again, gasoline blending season is coming, refineries will draw crude from Cushing for summer blend mogas. Better claim number, turmoil in Egypt, and important technical lvl... I am pretty bullish. Lets see how it will play out. Only concerns I have are a glut of supply as TransCanada’s Keystone pipeline began delivering up to 0.15 MMbbls/d of crude to Cushing, and a strong dollar (1.3532 tonight). Anyway, differences aside, good work on your research... are you a student or employed?
Check out my blog Gambler Daily www.gamblerdaily.com, I post Global Markets Daily ( rates, FX and commodities, especially energy) Currently I am looking at inter-market spreads WTI/Brent, RB crack, HO crack and 321 crack to converge... timing is difficult tho....
http://www.gamblerdaily.com/?p=1730 Global Markets Daily 2/10/11 http://www.gamblerdaily.com/?p=1597 WTI/Brent
Sorry but I have a hard time taking you seriously for a few reasons:
1) you call yourself a "guru" 2) your post looks copy+pasted 3) you are link spamming at the bottom of your post
I call spam.
Yes we are entering driving season and stocks across most energy commodities are higher compared to last year at this time. Gasoline demand has been falling apart but it may overstated. I am bullish crude but not because of gasoline's story rather the exports of distillates which will continue to hold crude's demand.
Currently refined gasoline cannot be used after the winter... I am bullish for technical reasons mainly. Would you elaborate more why you are bullish crude?
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