Expected Return: Vacant Land NYC

What kind of expected return seems reasonable for vacant land in NYC with no intention of developing? Simply buy ~10,000 sq ft already zoned for multifamily and sell to a developer in 2-3 decades. Assume 100% equity and no debt.

How would the expected return differ from Manhattan vs. Brooklyn or Queens? Obviously, this is going to be very area specific but what sounds like a reasonable target return to shoot for?

 

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