Goldman Sachs - World Cup 2010 Report
Goldman Sachs’ economists and strategists are out this week with a 69-page take on the coming World Cup in South Africa.
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/busine…
Does anyone know where to find this report?
“One needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s models” - UBS dude
Wtf! They have models to predict outcomes of soccer games?
England in the semi-finals? Laughable. However, France not making it out of the group stage isn't as bold a prediction as it might appear.
This is offensive. France will take the cup! Alright, maybe I am blinded by love, but they will certainly make it out of the group stages at the very least.
I'm French, and this year really has me worried. Domenech is awful and our group is tougher than it looks. South Africa is the worst team in the competition but their home field advantage is very important. France never beats Uruguay and Mexico has been doing much better than France lately. If you look at the last 15 years, this has been by far the weakest two-year period the team has experienced. No quality wins whatsoever. I want them to win, but its a very tall order.
how do you feel about their chances now???
Goes to show how unreliable modelling really is. This is just like saying Lakers or Boston will make it to east and west conference finals or Yankees in the finals. Historically, you would expect Brazil, Italy, Spain, Portugal and England to make it to quarter finals and beyond, so the analysis is questionable.
I think Ibanking analysts/economists should stay clear of soccer predictions (except they were in the sports industry). I rather listen to sports commentators on this one. Any analysis that does not include an African team in at LEAST the quarter finals is a bullshit one.
I say South Africa is reaching quarter or semis the same way Korea did when they hosted the competition.
The historically higher probability doesn't really have any effect on the analysis.
Actually.. we do know for certain that the lakers will make the finals.
Brazil will win. End of story.
anyway heres the report for 2006.. would love to see 2010 if someone has the link
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/the-world-cu…
[quote=JimSimons]anyway heres the report for 2006.. would love to see 2010 if someone has the link
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/the-world-cu…]
Just emailed a contact to see if she can link me. WIll let you know.
Somebody please get ahold of this.
Here is the UBS one (not that great) - www.ubs.com/2/e/medlib/wmr/IGWM_spez_2010_en.pdf
Netherlands to the finals. WRITE IT DOWN!
I know, I'm thinking of putting a lot of money on Uruguay for the first game. I'm actually most worried about Cisse. France has been awful in every tournament where he was a part of the team. He got hurt right before the 06 WC which explains how we got the the final. I'm hoping him, Ben Arfa and Valbuena are among the seven who don't go to South Africa.
we have a printout of the pdf floating around here, but i'm not sure about a download link. you might have to spend some $$ on it.
I would be most worried about Henry actually. He has no form to speak of and is obviously there because he scored that handball, which makes the Benzema snub even more puzzling. It's really a shame because a lot of players on the squad are actually world class. The defense very solid with the leadership of Gallas and Sagna, Abidal, Evra and Clichy as options on the wings. Midfield has worldclass playmakers such as Malouda, Ribery and Gourcuff. Top striker in Anelka. I don't think Cisse is gonna be left off until someone injure him. Too many scrubs behind him like Ben Arfa and Briannd.
I would be most worried about Henry actually. He has no form to speak of and is obviously there because he scored that handball, which makes the Benzema snub even more puzzling. It's really a shame because a lot of players on the squad are actually world class. The defense very solid with the leadership of Gallas and Sagna, Abidal, Evra and Clichy as options on the wings. Midfield has worldclass playmakers such as Malouda, Ribery and Gourcuff. Top striker in Anelka. I don't think Cisse is gonna be left off until someone injure him. Too many scrubs behind him like Ben Arfa and Briannd.
Yeah Henry's career is pretty much over. He had next to no playing time at Barca since his half assed game against arsenal in champs league and probably will end up in the MLS next year. Hard to see him contributing anything in WC, especially given that his international track record is pretty dismal to begin with
It'll be interesting to see who can beat Spain - almost every one of their starters has had a fantastic season - xavi ramos and villa especially have been absolutely killing it
Yea Ramos looks pretty good on paper... until he scores own goals or make a serious mistake on defense..
Enjoy it here!
http://worldcupeconomics.blogspot.com/
hey i have it guys.. will post it up
I almost thought the report might be worth reading until I saw that someone had invested time in trying to show the correlation between equity markets and world cup performance. Seriously guys, get back to work and focus on ripping customers off instead of producing such geekery of the lowest order.
Oh and Frenchies stop moaning about Domenech - his selection gaffes pale in comparison to Diego promising a starting place to Jonas Gutierrez (who doesn't even play in the top division in England) while leaving Zanetti, Cambiasso, Banega and Gago out of the squad entirely....
Looking forward to Australia beating an understrength England in the second round and running around my (London) office in my Southern Cross underwear...
Lol Australia is a joke dude... How did they leave off Joel Griffiths? The squad is old and beat, and you don't have any strikers. Good luck with Josh Kennedy and Scott McDonald LOLOL
Nah we'll have Harry "The Beast" Kewell playing up front on his own, more than enough to terrorise any opposition defence. Who needs two groins anyway?
I think Griffiths ran over Pim's cat or something, only way Scott "Cow's arse, banjo etc" McDonald could get picked over him
lol Kewell is a shadow striker.. and was good 10 years ago, come on bud this is 2010. Australia's run ended when Viduka retired. Mad respect for Schwarzer though, one of the best/most underrated goalies in the world.
Are there any other World Cup reports that can bring the reader up to speed about the teams. This GS focuses too much on the country/economy and I'd like to read more about the team/players.
ESPN has a pretty good primer on all the teams, strengths, weaknesses, key players, etc.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/?cc=5901&ver=us
UBS is really not showing any respect for Spain, I think they have a great shot at winning it. Torres, Villa, Silva, Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Fabregas, Puyol, Ramos, Pique, Casillas... what a team.
Also they seem infatuated with SA making a run... they have them as the most likely to make it out of the first round... seriously?!
Also, Australia is the oldest team in the tournament, even worse than Italy. Look at their core, Neill, Moore, Emerton, Breciano, Cahill, Kewell, all over 30... hell they won't even make the world cup in 2014...
Erroneous. Do you have any idea how easy it is to qualify in Asia?! We'll be terrible in 2014, no doubt, but I still expect us to sneak past Indonesia and Bahrain in qualifying.
Yep our team is pretty over the hill, the golden oldies are gunning for one last run though I'm sure. We should make it out of our group anyway, Serbia have never done anything in a major tournament and Ghana are a one-man team whose one man has been injured all year.
If we do get knocked out early I will be transferring my allegiance first to the States, then Anyone Who Is Playing England, then Spain...
I know Benzema hasn't been in form this year, but Henry gets no playing time at Barca... why not go with youth? The only reason I can come up with is out of respect for Henry (and his handball that got them past Ireland haha)
No way, Casillas is a better keeper than Valdes. Hell, I'd probably put Reina ahead of him.
France is done. Gallas is hurt. They have 0 central defenders that can play. No idea why Mexes is not on the team.
Gallas?? man this guy is one crazy fella. but yup france running out of good defenders...
I'm gonna bet on South Africa,.. Long South Africa.. im quite sure some voodoo magic will be against their opponents
Valdez's form has been incredible this year, with lowest no. of goals conceded in la Liga - many of the goals scored against him were 1 on 1's
He also had the benefit of playing with one of the best back lines in the world anchored by Puyol and Pique. From a statistical standpoint perhaps this year he has the edge, but from watching the matches his play and intelligence just aren't on Casillas' level in my opinion.
Also those guys at UBS are on crack, South Africa have one of the worst squads ever to play at the world cup. They may scrape a 0-0 due to home advantage but I put their chances at making the second round somewhere between "none" and "fuck all"
the host country always makes the second round the USA even managed to make it to the second round in 1994. i would be shocked if south africa didn't advance they will exit by the quarterfinals, if not the second round
I will happily gamble my life savings on this*
If the financial crisis has taught you young pups one thing it should be that backtesting is not infallible.
*due to my hedonistic life style and some poor property-related investment decisions these savings may not amount to much more than a friendly bet
J.P. Morgan are also on the case.. Predicting England as winners despite touting Brazil as the overall best team.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/31537878/JP-Morgan-Quantitative-Guide-to-Worl…
South Africa is by far the weakest host country ever. Something to keep in mind.
come on, USA 94? South Korea 2002 (only got to the semis b/c they bought off the referees)?
South Africa are ranked 90th in the world. Seriously mate, they are awful.
In 1994 the USA was ranked 23rd, in 2002 South Korea was ranked 40th (before the world cup).
But in any case, I am willing to wager one silver banana.
DO NOT DOUBT THESE SOCER ANALYST THEY ARE SENT FROM GOD HIMSELF THEY DO HIS WORK
Here it is, GS: The World Cup and Economics 2010...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/31428591/GS-The-World-Cup-and-Economics
I bet you 3 silver bananas that South Africa and North Korea both do not advance. I would have bet more but do not have any silver b's left.
I'll bet 3 bananas on South Africa (advancing) but I'm not touching North Korea.
Where are my silver bananas.
Patrick, time to step in? lol
What happens to the NK players when they lose? I can't even imagine.
They all defect presumably.
Didn't this happen with a Cuban youth team a few years back? From memory only half a dozen players turned up for the game (it was in Florida I think), the rest had all run off!
A former trader at Man Group and some professors from Oxford have set up a company to do sports modelling exclusivley. Here is there take on the World Cup:
http://www.sportbrains.com/worldCup.html
interesting to see that their predictions are similar to the JPMorgan's, and quite different than UBS's/
same group that made the above predictions did an iPhone app: tinyurl.com/worldcupapp
interesting. Got USA v SLV perfect today, did not predict england's pathetic draw.
Libero et dolores veniam voluptas nihil repudiandae accusamus doloremque. Dolorum dolor eum corrupti recusandae doloremque voluptatibus ipsam possimus. Nulla sed reiciendis nulla ea et eligendi. Eveniet voluptas provident quasi praesentium iusto quo sit.
Quis ducimus eius magnam veritatis in nostrum. Aliquam maxime voluptatibus aut minima saepe. Reiciendis fugit repellendus quas qui.
Eum sapiente omnis voluptatum beatae porro quas impedit. Exercitationem quia veniam possimus et. Totam quisquam mollitia voluptatem eum labore et. Voluptatem ut aspernatur nisi voluptate.
Quae fugiat blanditiis et aut distinctio rem animi. Sequi porro doloribus doloremque ut.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Enim temporibus magni consequatur dolores dolorum expedita molestias. Quis illum sed explicabo non aut optio. Et illum illum nam nemo.
Nihil rerum eum quaerat rerum quisquam consequuntur similique. Et voluptates sapiente at illo. Possimus repudiandae dignissimos eius aut voluptatibus tempora aperiam sint.
Commodi illo ab et omnis quae qui in. Ea consequatur totam hic quis amet tempora. Vel quas corporis error cumque est perspiciatis maiores. Inventore vel modi veniam provident quo velit. Recusandae est et porro ullam. Nobis veritatis commodi at qui.
Provident in explicabo corporis non accusamus et numquam ea. Est consequuntur ad ex et voluptatem consectetur. Magnam aut doloribus deleniti.
Ad qui omnis ipsa quae ex autem voluptas. Ut itaque cum ut laborum.
Culpa praesentium odio non accusantium blanditiis. Vitae recusandae doloremque rerum dolor inventore.