Goldman Sachs - World Cup 2010 Report

Goldman Sachs’ economists and strategists are out this week with a 69-page take on the coming World Cup in South Africa.

http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/busine…

Does anyone know where to find this report?

 
GoodBread:
France not making it out of the group stage isn't as bold a prediction as it might appear.

This is offensive. France will take the cup! Alright, maybe I am blinded by love, but they will certainly make it out of the group stages at the very least.

 
Best Response
pinkbanker:
GoodBread:
France not making it out of the group stage isn't as bold a prediction as it might appear.

This is offensive. France will take the cup! Alright, maybe I am blinded by love, but they will certainly make it out of the group stages at the very least.

I'm French, and this year really has me worried. Domenech is awful and our group is tougher than it looks. South Africa is the worst team in the competition but their home field advantage is very important. France never beats Uruguay and Mexico has been doing much better than France lately. If you look at the last 15 years, this has been by far the weakest two-year period the team has experienced. No quality wins whatsoever. I want them to win, but its a very tall order.

 

Goes to show how unreliable modelling really is. This is just like saying Lakers or Boston will make it to east and west conference finals or Yankees in the finals. Historically, you would expect Brazil, Italy, Spain, Portugal and England to make it to quarter finals and beyond, so the analysis is questionable.

I think Ibanking analysts/economists should stay clear of soccer predictions (except they were in the sports industry). I rather listen to sports commentators on this one. Any analysis that does not include an African team in at LEAST the quarter finals is a bullshit one.

I say South Africa is reaching quarter or semis the same way Korea did when they hosted the competition.

 
alreadyrich:
This is just like saying Lakers or Boston will make it to east and west conference finals or Yankees in the finals. Historically, you would expect Brazil, Italy, Spain, Portugal and England to make it to quarter finals and beyond, so the analysis is questionable.

The historically higher probability doesn't really have any effect on the analysis.

 

Brazil will win. End of story.

-------------------------------------------------------- "I do not think there is any other quality so essential to success of any kind as the quality of perseverance. It overcom
 

I would be most worried about Henry actually. He has no form to speak of and is obviously there because he scored that handball, which makes the Benzema snub even more puzzling. It's really a shame because a lot of players on the squad are actually world class. The defense very solid with the leadership of Gallas and Sagna, Abidal, Evra and Clichy as options on the wings. Midfield has worldclass playmakers such as Malouda, Ribery and Gourcuff. Top striker in Anelka. I don't think Cisse is gonna be left off until someone injure him. Too many scrubs behind him like Ben Arfa and Briannd.

 

I would be most worried about Henry actually. He has no form to speak of and is obviously there because he scored that handball, which makes the Benzema snub even more puzzling. It's really a shame because a lot of players on the squad are actually world class. The defense very solid with the leadership of Gallas and Sagna, Abidal, Evra and Clichy as options on the wings. Midfield has worldclass playmakers such as Malouda, Ribery and Gourcuff. Top striker in Anelka. I don't think Cisse is gonna be left off until someone injure him. Too many scrubs behind him like Ben Arfa and Briannd.

 

Yeah Henry's career is pretty much over. He had next to no playing time at Barca since his half assed game against arsenal in champs league and probably will end up in the MLS next year. Hard to see him contributing anything in WC, especially given that his international track record is pretty dismal to begin with

It'll be interesting to see who can beat Spain - almost every one of their starters has had a fantastic season - xavi ramos and villa especially have been absolutely killing it

 
vddr:
Yeah Henry's career is pretty much over. He had next to no playing time at Barca since his half assed game against arsenal in champs league and probably will end up in the MLS next year. Hard to see him contributing anything in WC, especially given that his international track record is pretty dismal to begin with

It'll be interesting to see who can beat Spain - almost every one of their starters has had a fantastic season - xavi ramos and villa especially have been absolutely killing it

Yea Ramos looks pretty good on paper... until he scores own goals or make a serious mistake on defense..

 

I almost thought the report might be worth reading until I saw that someone had invested time in trying to show the correlation between equity markets and world cup performance. Seriously guys, get back to work and focus on ripping customers off instead of producing such geekery of the lowest order.

Oh and Frenchies stop moaning about Domenech - his selection gaffes pale in comparison to Diego promising a starting place to Jonas Gutierrez (who doesn't even play in the top division in England) while leaving Zanetti, Cambiasso, Banega and Gago out of the squad entirely....

Looking forward to Australia beating an understrength England in the second round and running around my (London) office in my Southern Cross underwear...

 
bunkerbanker:
Lol Australia is a joke dude... How did they leave off Joel Griffiths? The squad is old and beat, and you don't have any strikers. Good luck with Josh Kennedy and Scott McDonald LOLOL

Nah we'll have Harry "The Beast" Kewell playing up front on his own, more than enough to terrorise any opposition defence. Who needs two groins anyway?

I think Griffiths ran over Pim's cat or something, only way Scott "Cow's arse, banjo etc" McDonald could get picked over him

 
Djalminha:
bunkerbanker:
Lol Australia is a joke dude... How did they leave off Joel Griffiths? The squad is old and beat, and you don't have any strikers. Good luck with Josh Kennedy and Scott McDonald LOLOL

Nah we'll have Harry "The Beast" Kewell playing up front on his own, more than enough to terrorise any opposition defence. Who needs two groins anyway?

I think Griffiths ran over Pim's cat or something, only way Scott "Cow's arse, banjo etc" McDonald could get picked over him

lol Kewell is a shadow striker.. and was good 10 years ago, come on bud this is 2010. Australia's run ended when Viduka retired. Mad respect for Schwarzer though, one of the best/most underrated goalies in the world.

 
TNMN:
Are there any other World Cup reports that can bring the reader up to speed about the teams. This GS focuses too much on the country/economy and I'd like to read more about the team/players.

ESPN has a pretty good primer on all the teams, strengths, weaknesses, key players, etc.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/?cc=5901&ver=us

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 

UBS is really not showing any respect for Spain, I think they have a great shot at winning it. Torres, Villa, Silva, Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Fabregas, Puyol, Ramos, Pique, Casillas... what a team.

Also they seem infatuated with SA making a run... they have them as the most likely to make it out of the first round... seriously?!

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
bunkerbanker:
Also, Australia is the oldest team in the tournament, even worse than Italy. Look at their core, Neill, Moore, Emerton, Breciano, Cahill, Kewell, all over 30... hell they won't even make the world cup in 2014...

Erroneous. Do you have any idea how easy it is to qualify in Asia?! We'll be terrible in 2014, no doubt, but I still expect us to sneak past Indonesia and Bahrain in qualifying.

Yep our team is pretty over the hill, the golden oldies are gunning for one last run though I'm sure. We should make it out of our group anyway, Serbia have never done anything in a major tournament and Ghana are a one-man team whose one man has been injured all year.

If we do get knocked out early I will be transferring my allegiance first to the States, then Anyone Who Is Playing England, then Spain...

 

I know Benzema hasn't been in form this year, but Henry gets no playing time at Barca... why not go with youth? The only reason I can come up with is out of respect for Henry (and his handball that got them past Ireland haha)

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 

No way, Casillas is a better keeper than Valdes. Hell, I'd probably put Reina ahead of him.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 

He also had the benefit of playing with one of the best back lines in the world anchored by Puyol and Pique. From a statistical standpoint perhaps this year he has the edge, but from watching the matches his play and intelligence just aren't on Casillas' level in my opinion.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
Djalminha:
Also those guys at UBS are on crack, South Africa have one of the worst squads ever to play at the world cup. They may scrape a 0-0 due to home advantage but I put their chances at making the second round somewhere between "none" and "fuck all"

the host country always makes the second round the USA even managed to make it to the second round in 1994. i would be shocked if south africa didn't advance they will exit by the quarterfinals, if not the second round

 
Affirmative_Action_Walrus:
the host country always makes the second round the USA even managed to make it to the second round in 1994. i would be shocked if south africa didn't advance they will exit by the quarterfinals, if not the second round

I will happily gamble my life savings on this*

If the financial crisis has taught you young pups one thing it should be that backtesting is not infallible.

*due to my hedonistic life style and some poor property-related investment decisions these savings may not amount to much more than a friendly bet

 
Affirmative_Action_Walrus:
GoodBread:
South Africa is by far the weakest host country ever. Something to keep in mind.

come on, USA 94? South Korea 2002 (only got to the semis b/c they bought off the referees)?

South Africa are ranked 90th in the world. Seriously mate, they are awful.

In 1994 the USA was ranked 23rd, in 2002 South Korea was ranked 40th (before the world cup).

But in any case, I am willing to wager one silver banana.

 

Where are my silver bananas.

Patrick, time to step in? lol

Affirmative_Action_Walrus:
bunkerbanker:
I bet you 3 silver bananas that South Africa and North Korea both do not advance. I would have bet more but do not have any silver b's left.

I'll bet 3 bananas on South Africa (advancing) but I'm not touching North Korea.

 

Libero et dolores veniam voluptas nihil repudiandae accusamus doloremque. Dolorum dolor eum corrupti recusandae doloremque voluptatibus ipsam possimus. Nulla sed reiciendis nulla ea et eligendi. Eveniet voluptas provident quasi praesentium iusto quo sit.

Quis ducimus eius magnam veritatis in nostrum. Aliquam maxime voluptatibus aut minima saepe. Reiciendis fugit repellendus quas qui.

Eum sapiente omnis voluptatum beatae porro quas impedit. Exercitationem quia veniam possimus et. Totam quisquam mollitia voluptatem eum labore et. Voluptatem ut aspernatur nisi voluptate.

Quae fugiat blanditiis et aut distinctio rem animi. Sequi porro doloribus doloremque ut.

 

Enim temporibus magni consequatur dolores dolorum expedita molestias. Quis illum sed explicabo non aut optio. Et illum illum nam nemo.

Nihil rerum eum quaerat rerum quisquam consequuntur similique. Et voluptates sapiente at illo. Possimus repudiandae dignissimos eius aut voluptatibus tempora aperiam sint.

Commodi illo ab et omnis quae qui in. Ea consequatur totam hic quis amet tempora. Vel quas corporis error cumque est perspiciatis maiores. Inventore vel modi veniam provident quo velit. Recusandae est et porro ullam. Nobis veritatis commodi at qui.

Provident in explicabo corporis non accusamus et numquam ea. Est consequuntur ad ex et voluptatem consectetur. Magnam aut doloribus deleniti.

CompBanker’s Career Guidance Services: https://www.rossettiadvisors.com/

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
6
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
7
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
8
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
9
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”