When the SEC announcement came on the 16th, I thought the market overreacted.
Monday morning, I got my spread bet account and started buying goldman - confident that the fundamentals of the business were sound.
Amazingly they had a rocky week - despite posting huge profits - well, fuck it, I thought, I'm going to buy some more positions whilst the price is so low - now I've sunk about $10k in (I'm in my final year of university - so this is big bucks for me!).
Then this Friday amazingly, they drop 10% on the back of a fairly predictable fed case opening.
If I had the money, I'd be buying at double leverage in a heartbeat, but I don't.
I need the stock to hit 159.00 to break even - at 163.5 I'll make $1.5k
Do you think this is going to happen anytime soon?
Seems like the market is overreacting - it's still the number 1 bank, with the number 1 brains, and the number 1 clients. It's still making profit, and it still will.
I ought to clarify that I'm $5k down atm and getting very very nervous. My limimt it 131
It will definately survive but (a) reputation took a big hit (b) some clients and talent are leaving the firm and (c) they are public enemy number 1
tough call
Never bet against evil. They'll be back and they'll be stronger than ever.
it's an ethical issue, not a legal issue, pretty sure goldman will find a way around the law and bounce back. it's the most profitable investment bank, and even Warren Buffett backed them up recently. it will come back, just HOOLLLLDDDD....
"the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent" good luck man, I'm sure you're not the only one here who's loaded up on GS recently
In the same situation. I picked some shares up at 157, didn't think they would go down much more having dropped from 184, but was shocked friday when this shit tanked a further 10% to 144.
I don't care holding it for several months though, so hopefully it comes back.
I purchased some GS calls on Friday a little before the close. I'm not exactly thrilled at the prospect of holding this position over the weekend. People are starting to talk about GS potentially failing which is ridiculous but, when someone yells "smoke" on Wall St people sell and they sell hard.
What did Buffet say about GS today?
he was relatively supportive
WSJ headline news "Warren Buffett came to the defense of Goldman Sachs at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting."
You have to love Warren:
"The billionaire investor said he fully supported Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein. Asked if he could choose a successor for Mr. Blankfein, Mr. Buffett said: "If Lloyd had a twin brother I'd go for him.""
So would it be a good buy at $145? I wouldn't mind holding onto it for a few years or more since I'll be in college and won't need it.
Nobody can tell you that... I mean if it goes the way of Drexel Burnham and closes shop then you're out of luck... or if the prestige hit has an unmeasurable impact on their intrinsic value and causes clients to bail, people to leave, moral to drop, or deters talent from applying to the firm (all of which is happening to some degree now) the losses could be high.
Then again, they are Wall Street's oldest and arguably most profitable firm for a reason, and if these charges don't pan out and their clients recognize nothing wrong was done unto them, you could see it shoot back up to 200 in a year.
Set your stops..don't just sit and load more money and hope it pulls through. If you're willing to lose $10k when it hits that $131 range, that's solid. But, seeing that you're down $5k right now and tweaking a bit, I'd be careful. You know the markets--anything can happen. Don't adjust that stop. Can't win 'em all.
You're in your senior year, going into a great job in the fall and you have ~$50k on the line (350 sharesish?). Not sure if you're using your margin, but I'm guessing you are. You want margin calls.
Buffet's positive comments should stop these shorters for the meantime though, but his pumping won't last forever. I could definitely see the quick retrace if it rallies a little bit. On the whole though, I do see GS going much lower. They need to just get all the bad news out (rip off the bandaid) and we'll see the defense process begin. Oversold imo.
With rates near zero, GS is an even stronger money making machine. Your analysis is good, but don't hold your marbles all in one basket. This thing is a falling knife--hedge a bit. The sellers are in control.
Disclaimer: I've held a bear put spread over the weekend.
thanks a lot buddy - really helpful insight!
cmon buffet is covering his shares, recently Berkshire bought a lot of preferred stock and some common. He is just covering his shares of GS. GS wil drop but will take a short climb u should get out when it hits 48+ SHORT SHORT SHORT dont be suprised by end of this week 35s
You do realize Buffet invested 5 billion into GS preferred months ago.
What do you think there profits will be for this quarter you have to remember they still some of the best traders and have access to discount window(.75 lololololololol) to buy the nom nom US treasuries
gs should have decent to above average earnings, id expect it to take a hit in the long run. If you think the stocks are bad wait until the SEC bends GS over and does its work. Plus wait until the class action lawsuits gs' glory days are over
Nostrum et eum similique tenetur blanditiis qui nostrum. Nisi labore sint qui necessitatibus quidem. Sed sint et sunt id. Quia quibusdam omnis quisquam recusandae impedit.
Reprehenderit corporis eos optio et nesciunt et explicabo. Deleniti nesciunt incidunt sint autem rerum velit. Possimus dolore consectetur vel quod. Minus ullam vitae eum in. Accusamus ullam consequuntur natus ab et sed. Distinctio error nobis enim cum.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...