Herba-Flight: Ackman vs. Loeb Cont.
Today is not a good day for Pershing Capital or Bill Ackman, as his short position on Herbalife (HLF) is looking progressively worse as closing time approaches. The session before he announced his short on December 18, 2012 saw a closing price of $42.50 and in the aftermath, it crashed 38% to around $26.06. So far, it has rallied 10.09% to a price of $44.06.
This, of course, says nothing about his questionable position in JCP, which has steadily fallen since Jan. 2. Additionally, Ackman's fund has underperformed over the past two years.
Dan Loeb (Third Point LLC), an outspoken rival of Ackman, opened a position with 8.9 million shares at the beginning of this year. Last year, his hedge fund beat the market and another of his funds saw net returns of 35%.
Is there any chance Ackman is right and the FTC will step in? Should he accept defeat and admit (with less than a 342 PowerPoint slide) that he was wrong?
What do you monkeys think?
EDIT: Unconfirmed reports suggest rally started with HLF dipping into their treasury stock budget.





I think Loeb should get out
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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BlackHat: I think Loeb should
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
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Yep, I wouldn't be too greedy
Yep, I wouldn't be too greedy with this one if I were loeb, then again, what do I know.
One thing I do know though is that taking profits doesn't hurt
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
ackman presented his "thesis"
ackman presented his "thesis" on HLF so he can mark his 2012 book with the hlf paper gain to offset his massive jcp losses
otherwise his 2012 #s would be a shitshow...looks like that he is just delaying the inevitable shitshow (2013)
go loeb!
DontMakeMeShortYou: BlackHa
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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HLF is a pyramid scheme, pure
HLF is a pyramid scheme, pure and simple. My question is why isn't anyone discussing the SEC investigation that was launched against HLF a couple of days ago.
“...all truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
- Schopenhauer
BlackHat: DontMakeMeShortYo
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
If we ever run into each other live, loser owes the other a drink. first to 70 vs. 20? How do we determine winner?
See my WSO Blog
That's one awesome start of
That's one awesome start of 2013 if Loeb locks this gain to be honest. He's probably already dumping in the rally going towards the earnings announcement later this month.
Check out my Blog
seabird: HLF is a pyramid
HLF is a pyramid scheme, pure and simple. My question is why isn't anyone discussing the SEC investigation that was launched against HLF a couple of days ago.
I thought that too but I was informed that the real problem would come from the FTC getting involved
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
DontMakeMeShortYou: BlackHa
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
If we ever run into each other live, loser owes the other a drink. first to 70 vs. 20? How do we determine winner?
Let's go with that. 52 week high is about 73 and that's where it was trending up right before Einhorn first put in his call, and 24 is the low here before the rebound... so 70 vs 20 sounds solid. Let's say the stock has to close above 70 or below 20 for a winner. And if I lose, I'm buying you one of these with a triple shot of something fancy in it: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CB-IffQIpZI/TWfricGRiWI/...
I hate victims who respect their executioners
Follow BH & Co. on Twitter: @DumbLuckCapital
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BlackHat: DontMakeMeShortYo
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
If we ever run into each other live, loser owes the other a drink. first to 70 vs. 20? How do we determine winner?
Let's go with that. 52 week high is about 73 and that's where it was trending up right before Einhorn first put in his call, and 24 is the low here before the rebound... so 70 vs 20 sounds solid. Let's say the stock has to close above 70 or below 20 for a winner. And if I lose, I'm buying you one of these with a triple shot of something fancy in it: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CB-IffQIpZI/TWfricGRiWI/...
herbalife_batido_merengada_proteinas_niuna_dieta_mas1.jpg
Wonderful. That's my normal pre-game drink anyway. How else am I going to hit my daily protein consumption goals on the weekends?
See my WSO Blog
DontMakeMeShortYou: BlackHa
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
If we ever run into each other live, loser owes the other a drink. first to 70 vs. 20? How do we determine winner?
Let's go with that. 52 week high is about 73 and that's where it was trending up right before Einhorn first put in his call, and 24 is the low here before the rebound... so 70 vs 20 sounds solid. Let's say the stock has to close above 70 or below 20 for a winner. And if I lose, I'm buying you one of these with a triple shot of something fancy in it: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CB-IffQIpZI/TWfricGRiWI/...
herbalife_batido_merengada_proteinas_niuna_dieta_mas1.jpg
Wonderful. That's my normal pre-game drink anyway. How else am I going to hit my daily protein consumption goals on the weekends?
Shit... that statement alone already makes me regret doubting the Herbalife product.
I hate victims who respect their executioners
Follow BH & Co. on Twitter: @DumbLuckCapital
twitter.com/DumbLuckCapital
BlackHat: DontMakeMeShortYo
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
I disagree. Let's put a gentleman's wager on this, shall we?
I've never touched an HLF annual but the way they're conducting themselves during this whole thing makes me have my reservations. Against my better judgment I'll take you up on that offer. The smell test says to me it's probably not a sustainable business
If we ever run into each other live, loser owes the other a drink. first to 70 vs. 20? How do we determine winner?
Let's go with that. 52 week high is about 73 and that's where it was trending up right before Einhorn first put in his call, and 24 is the low here before the rebound... so 70 vs 20 sounds solid. Let's say the stock has to close above 70 or below 20 for a winner. And if I lose, I'm buying you one of these with a triple shot of something fancy in it: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CB-IffQIpZI/TWfricGRiWI/...
herbalife_batido_merengada_proteinas_niuna_dieta_mas1.jpg
Wonderful. That's my normal pre-game drink anyway. How else am I going to hit my daily protein consumption goals on the weekends?
Shit... that statement alone already makes me regret doubting the Herbalife product.
I think I've invented a new market opportunity for them to explore. Protein-infused liquor. They could sell it at establishments on the Jersey Shore as a test market, and expand from there. Maybe call such establishments "Above the Bar" or something more creative to that effect.
Pretty sure Ackman's screwed if this becomes a thing.
See my WSO Blog
BlackHat: I think Loeb should
I think Loeb should get out while he's ahead
Personally, I agree. I have heard unconfirmed reports that this is due to Herbalife using some of their $900mm budget for buying treasury stock...I think today would have been the perfect time for them to buy back some shares and create a rally. But, only time will tell.
seabird: HLF is a pyramid
HLF is a pyramid scheme, pure and simple. My question is why isn't anyone discussing the SEC investigation that was launched against HLF a couple of days ago.
After Achman's presentation, I was convinced. However, Herbalife has been around and they have been disclosing their similarities in their financials. One example is the ban they got in Belgium, which was fully reported on their financials from (I think) 2011.
shocked to see the short
Gray Fox: shocked to see the
See my WSO Blog
jmr1991: seabird: HLF is a
See my WSO Blog
Does anybody know if any of
DontMakeMeShortYou: I think
I just had my first UFO experience.
I called my wife fat while we were making dinner.
Flying saucers everywhere XD
Potentially stupid question -
DaCarez: Potentially stupid
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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BlackHat: DaCarez: Potentia
Wow. This just got real
seabird: HLF is a pyramid
so this is how activist
humble_dude: BlackHat: Da
Gray Fox: at the end of the
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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BlackHat: Gray Fox: at the
DontMakeMeShortYou,
Disclaimer, I don't like HLF,
I just had my first UFO experience.
I called my wife fat while we were making dinner.
Flying saucers everywhere XD
UFO-at what point does MLM
blackthorne: UFO-at what
I hate victims who respect their executioners
Follow BH & Co. on Twitter: @DumbLuckCapital
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BlackHat: blackthorne: UFO-
I just had my first UFO experience.
I called my wife fat while we were making dinner.
Flying saucers everywhere XD
blackthorne: DontMakeMeShortY
See my WSO Blog
DontMakeMeShortYou: blackth
DontMakeMeShortYou: blackth
I hate victims who respect their executioners
Follow BH & Co. on Twitter: @DumbLuckCapital
twitter.com/DumbLuckCapital
i'd take a long on this any
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