Right after the credit bubble burst in 2008, shocked, people scrambled desperately for answers.
Turning to the economists, nearly all of whom failed to predict the deepest recession in decades, they asked, “What will happen next?”
Having seen the obvious writing on the enormous wall of debt shadowing the world, and positioned myself perfectly in a distressed debt investing job, I found it terribly amusing.
If the world’s "smartest" economists couldn’t even see the credit crisis coming, then, how would they have any clue about where we are now headed?
OBAMA AND TRUMP WON THE SAME WAY
I won’t even turn on the TV or Internet to watch the mostly useless talking heads endlessly debate how “this could have happened.”
Nearly all of them had absolutely no clue before, so, why on earth would they see it any more clearly today?
They won’t. You can already see them blaming Wikileaks, or whatnot.
They will cry in their lattes, but most of them will never get how Trump pulled this off, because they never bothered to ask how Barack Obama did it.
Mesmerized by his nice sounding words, and slow, melodic voice, buying into the meme of the messiah, they simply failed to see they were being influenced.
They still fail to see the true nature of the game.
NO ONE ASKED HOW TRUMP WAS WINNING
On CNBC's Squawk Box talking about the book I wrote on Trump (not supporting him, talking about how he was thrashing the GOP), I was challenged to explain whether Trump was really winning...
I talked football. In reference to Trump thrashing 16 of his rivals in the GOP, I said, if a football team went 16-0, we wouldn’t be sitting around making excuses, we would be asking: How did they do it?
Instead, with Trump, most people were so blinded by their own opinions, or wrapped up in some of Trump’s words, that they failed to look at the impact of those words.
Trump grabbed more Republican primary voters than any candidate in history.
Not because Americans are dumb racist white trash, as most the world’s media would like everyone to believe, but because Trump tapped into something deep.
TRUMP TAPPED INTO AMERICA'S PAIN
“We don’t win anymore.”
That wasn’t just a phrase or Trumpism, to many people it is their day-to-day experience, and Trump tapped into that.
Many commentators saw Trump manipulating people with fear, but what they failed to realize was that, in fact, Trump wasn’t manipulating anyone.
Instead, he was meeting them where they were, in fear, scared for their families, scared for their future, scared for America.
And with great skill, he rallied them behind him, building perhaps the greatest political movement in all history, beating the crap out of both sides at their own game.
“Make America Great Again,” was more than just a campaign slogan, it was the outcome of Trump walking voters from their pain of losing, to the hope they will again win.
This I branded the Trump 4-step: 1. "We don't win anymore." 2. Deepen Pain. 3. Move to Solution. 4. "Make America Great Again."
HILLARY COULDN’T EVEN ONE-STEP
Look, this isn’t about politics, it’s about skill.
It’s obvious to most everyone that Hillary is a terrible campaigner, but few people actually understand why.
They say, “she’s wooden,” or “doesn’t relate well,” but, in fact, her problem is simple.
She fails to get influence.
She started with a terrible slogan (I’m with Her), and her and her team proved they knew basically nothing about influence by failing to even start with the pain.
In her absurd tactic, "Tell Donald America is already great,” she misaligned herself with all the Bernie and Trump supporters who were in pain.
By campaigning this way, she basically spat in the face of every person in America who felt like they were losing, invalidating their emotional reality.
That’s a bad way to start a relationship with someone. And an even worse way to influence them to rally behind you.
GAME OVER
When this election is written about for years to come, the political boffins, who, like the economists who completely missed the credit crisis, will pen hundreds of books.
They will be full of wild policy ideas, polls, demographics, and reasons “it was obvious” Trump would win.
But, sadly, nearly all of them will, just like Hillary, still fail to get it.
They still haven’t figured out that this sport of politics that they love so much is only a game of influence.
Mod Note (Andy): Best of 2016, this post ranks #38 for the past year
Good post. The polls and all the talking heads got it wrong...and they weren't just wrong by a small margin- they were DEAD wrong.
to be fair polls had her winning the popular vote and she will win the popular vote.
Nobody wants to read your book.
It's not necessary to break out every sentence as a separate paragraph.
I think this guy broke it out down pretty much perfectly;
Love Secular Talk watching the ''what Trump did right" video now.
That kid is a self righteous douchebag. He is rarely right about anything but acts like he is better because he is "more right" than the MSM.
3:30 I saw that during the debates and speeches. This has been researched in psychology and in management science. I don't see how Hillary and all her staff could have possibly missed that. To be fair though, this was about HER and Her ability to take on the tasks as President of the United States of America. She still won the popular vote though.
she won the popular vote by 0.2 % I mean c'mon she choked. Dems should've had bernie if they wanted to win.
The Democrats win the popular vote because of states like NY and Cali where they can just run up the vote counts. For example if you completely remove California from the popular vote Trump would have won the popular vote by several million votes.
That was fantastic. Another thing I'd like to point out is that Donald trump really isn't a Republican. He used the 2 party system to his advantage which was absolutely genius. This is why he said the mexican shit, he knew it would make him more notable in the primaries and once he won the republican party it was easy to beat one person as arrogant as hillary.
IMO, the bottom line is that the people conducting the polls do not care to leave their NYC/LA/College Campus settings to really get some valuable data on the voters.
It's easier to do a cross section of "likely voters" generally in and around the place you work rather than getting hardcore boots on the ground in the highly unglamourous counties all over middle America. None of these urban/liberal pollsters want to leave their ivory towers to be grinding day in and day out through Pennsyltucky.
America wanted a change. Obama promised and was elected as a messiah. He didn't deliver. America is still wanting that change, so they flocked under Trump's banner. He has a lot to deliver. We'll see.
The rest is just the establishment machine crumbling. Polls have zero credibility at this point, save for the LA Times one. Mainstream media credibility that called Hillary's victory before the primaries were even finished is also equally down the toilet. ''She won all the 3 debates''. Right. A well oiled machine for something that was scriped from beginning to end. Except not enough people liked that end.
Hillary did in fact win the debates IMO, but the debates in general were a bit sad. I had hoped for some substantive discussion or some insight into policy. Something other than general platitudes that each American interprets to fit his own narrative of the world and snarky insults hurled back in forth. Pollyannaish, I know.
However, I do agree with the first part; the change message resonated with Americans. The pundits (and I suspect even most of us on this board) live in these bubbles of Blue. Even if you live in a red state, if you live in one of the major cities in that state, you are likely among a sea of blue. Thus, these pundits didn't know for themselves how many Americans felt the way they do.
Final bit: while the pollsters do certainly seem like laughingstocks for getting this one wrong, we should recognize that we're asking them to literally predict the future. The majority of Americans thoroughly disliked both candidates, and thus this was always going to be a difficult exercise, especially as the polling gap narrowed quickly towards the end of the race. The same pollsters and organizations have delivered accurately countless times (even during this cycle with state ballot measures, gubernatorial races etc.)
Just my worthless $0.02.
The L.A. Times poll was wrong. It predicted Trump +3 in popular vote when everyone else predicted Hillary +2.5. Not done counting but so far its Hillary +1.5, and will eventually be Hillary +2 it seems.
The L.A. Times itself (somewhat ignoring its own poll) also predicted a Hillary 320+ victory.
Yeah I'm an annoying statistics/polling pedant, but its just factually incorrect to say the L.A. Times was right.
I'd take pedantic over liars any day.
Trump won because we have the electoral college. He lost the popular vote. Aside from that, I completely agree.
As a Hillary supporter, "I'm with Her" was a terrible slogan. Trump and Obama had very proactive slogans that told you what they were about and were distinctly not about themselves. Hers was just a statement, and it was all about her.
Looks like nothing beats under-educated white male nationalism...'Murica
Trump won the majority of educated white males.
Nice comment though. Love the anti white racism because a corrupt candidate didn't win.
Nice distraction attempt. Trump noticeably underperformed Romney in white educated males. Trump won because of white males who didn't go to college
It's clear this country has a serious problem. Most of the major cities and directly surrounding suburbs are strongly blue and many of the small rural towns which make up the bulk of the US are super red. They're like two different worlds
The intensification of the urban-rural divide is one of the biggest contributors to this situation
Put it to a popular vote by county. Each one becomes a territory of one of two newly formed countries from the old remains of the USA. We'd have to scrap the unspoken rule that a country has to be one connected land mass for the most part
I even have much more in common with people from Montreal, and they just sit around talking in french and eating poutine
The urban-rural divide is stunning. Cities deep in red states vote blue, such as Atlanta, Nashville, Houston, Dallas, Charlotte, Charleston, etc
If you can shoot pool and have a beer, you'll get along with us simple folks!
Ironically, I think technology (automation, renewable energy, etc.) will serve to significantly bridge this divide. As society makes the transition to self-driving vehicles and renewable energy, people will become much more motivated to live in cheaper and more spacious areas. In addition, the technology itself will continue to become cheaper and cheaper over time. In 2016, a Tesla model 3 is only $35,000.
These types of areas are located outside of cities and the surrounding suburbs. Due to autonomous vehicles and renewable energy, it will no longer be inefficient to travel traditionally long distances (2? hours by car). You'll be driven straight into the city by your $35,000, (solar-powered?) Tesla. Since you'll be able to work on your laptop during the 2 hour commute, there is no loss in productivity.
Science has the potentially to rejuvenate 'distanced' communities more than ever before. However, nothing will change the fact that these people need to start training themselves with useful skills. Unless you want to live on welfare for the rest of your life, there is no other alternative. People need to start coming to terms with this fact.
this is sad. I'm sure you're upset DF, and maybe it's hyperbole, by why do you automatically go to the idea of carving up America? instead, you could seek to understand the other side's point of view, while hopefully the other side would seek to understand your point of view. maybe that's too idealistic, but I think if we just seek to understand others' points of view, there wouldn't be such divisiveness. maybe Trump would still be Prez and people would still be pissed, I dunno, just thinking of a better alternative.
I don't think carving up will help you guys. You're better off devising ways to manipulate them so you can keep the land, and avoid interaction.
Then move. Unlike in the Soviet Union or in North Korea, you're free to get the fuck out of here.
The political difference isn't the problem. The problem is when one group looks down their nose at people who think differently than they do.
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Having grown up in a small town of 4,000 people located in a blue collar county in the midwest, I resonate with Trump's populist movement. My county had a margin favoring Trump of greater than 20% despite voting for Obama in 2008.
Trump is the first person to truly relate with the blue collar American
1. Hand-outs People in these areas have worked their ass off their whole life doing manual labor in sweaty, dirty conditions to provide for the family and raise children. They live very simple lives, but work very hard. It is the stereotypical American dream. Imagine how they feel about the prospect of the 15 year old kid at Mcdonalds making $15 an hour when they abuse their body on a daily basis to make the same wage.
2. Tariffs They have grown up seeing the effects of globalization as they, their parents, or friends and family have lost jobs due to factories relocating or jobs being cut in favor of elsewhere. We in Finance live in a bubble shielded from the reality of what is truly happening in the majority of America. We get on boards as activists fighting for restructuring, cutting costs, etc. but these people actually see the end results of the job losses. We all know the economics behind this, but these people only know the suffering they have faced because of it.
3. Honesty Country people are some of the most humble people you will ever meet. They look at Hillary and see someone who has been found proven guilty of numerous scandals, flip-flopped positions, and reeks of fake in every word she speaks. In Trump they see someone who isn't perfect, but has the intention to tell the truth. You all know that we would be fired instantly if we did the same thing with our emails that Hillary did. To the average Joe, Hillary represents everything he is not.
4. Guns Hunting is life in some of these areas. State laws actually forbid schools from holding extracurricular activities after school on the night before deer season opens. Hillary supported reversing the Supreme Court decision which shields gun manufacturers from legal liability in shooting lawsuits. You are all finance people, you know what would happen if after every shooting the victim could just go sue the manufacturer.
America is fed up They want someone who is as far removed from the inner circles of the elite and wealthy establishment as they are. Trump delivered that perception. In fact Trump is despised by the establishment, and he offers these people a hope that they will have a candidate who will truly care about the simple lives they live. This is why he routed in the rust belt swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and the Midwest, and rural states like North Carolina, Georgia, and the south.
I realize that 99% of people on this forum will not relate to the above sentiment at all, but it just shows how out of touch we are with the average Joe of this country who doesn't think about exit opps, bonus season, or which school has the most prestige.
This was a true populist movement unlike any that has happened before.
I watched the coverage on abc and I heard something that really made a lot of sense. The non-bachelor degree holding voters over 25 OVERWHELMINGLY voted for trump on the basis that wages when adjusted for inflation have gone down significantly. People forget that 70% of the american public don't have a degree and they have been stuck for the last 20 years. David Muir said it was "A punch in the face to the establishment."
Joe Rogan said it best. "political correctness just took a missile to the dick". This can be pretty much be translated directly to the political establishment as well. Democrats think they had the rug pulled out from under them via the electoral college. They don't even take a look at the down ballot results. Democrats now control the governorship in 5 states, control both sides of the state legislators in just 5 states as well. This is far bigger than just the presidency, it Democrats have little to no sense of reality. They have far far bigger problems than just loosing the presidency, their benches are basically destroyed.
Agreed. I live in a very blue state and my father has worked in construction his whole life. He spends the majority of his time (life) in the worst parts of the city doing site work. What he sees all day is minorities without jobs, drug addicts, graffiti on their newly constructed projects, laborers that can hardly speak english etc. His wage has stayed relatively stagnant as taxes have constantly increased. Trump's campaign spoke directly to this large, ultimately forgotten demographic, and it makes sense that he is going to be the next president.
And that's exactly what he provided, a perception...not sure if all these people consciously realize that Trump is a billionaire and was born into tremendous wealth
I agree with this, but he is also a political outsider who comes in with a clean agenda. Most people do not trust politicians. A problem with our political system in the modern age is the fact it is run by career politicians. How can a politician truly make the best move for the people he represents when he is afraid how it will effect his career down the line? Politicians need to be held to a fiduciary standard to their constituents just as we are with our clients.
Since Trump doesn't have a political career and he has the money to fund much of his campaign, he is less prone to be influenced by lobbyists, donors, and the media, At least this is the hope of America... It remains to be seen.
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It doesn't really have anything to do with wealth, it has to do with those that come from the political establishment doing everything they can to protect their globalist agendas.
thank for this. I always had an inkling that the reasons people hate Trump were not the reasons blue collar America was voting for him.
we'll see if it works out
The email was a Trumped up non-issue Republicans focused on because Benghazi wasn't working and they could get an assist from the FBI.
Scumbag Trump is a billionaire that has spent his entire life screwing people. His wife is a Eastern European supermodel. He is far more of an elite than most of his opponents were. The wins in the rust belt were close, and Hillary could likely haved won if she'd spent any time campaigning there (woops on those polls). Also, Trump had wikileaks and the Comey October surprise on his side.
Lets not re-write history. Trump is a bullshitter who won because some incredible things (Comey) fell his way in the last minute. He didn't kill Hillary in any sense of the word.
The divide is pretty clear between the people. Example for me personally - Drive 2 hours away from the SF Bay Area and its night and day. No matter how you spin it, people just as little as 2 hours away are vastly different culturally and this was reflected in the election results. Maybe more emphasis should be made down to the county level. That way - those 'rural' areas can get what they want and the 'city' can get what they want. You don't usually get a mix of each (or not much) in each area.
I think this analysis is spot on, but I think his connection goes a further. You said that he won not "because Americans are dumb racist white trash, as most the world's media would like everyone to believe, but because Trump tapped into something deep", but the former point ties in very closely with the latter. He tapped into deep fears on many levels - people are fearful about their jobs and economic prospects, but they're also fearful about all these foreign people as well.
They've watched their jobs go abroad, the media vilifying natural resource production (imagine going to West Virginia and convincing people that coal is bad, it's practically the only paying work they've seen for decades), and their wages dropping due to migrant laborers willing to work for less.
People are scared about letting Syrian refugees in. They know the right thing is to give everyone a fair chance, and they certainly want to, but if even one those is a terrorist, their families might pay the price. They're also scared of not being able to provide for their families anymore when their jobs are disappearing and those that remain are going to Mexicans. Nothing against Mexicans, but they have a country. These jobs are in America, and they should go to Americans first. We're the ones paying taxes and have lived here all our lives. You wouldn't go to Mexico and demand their jobs, because those are for Mexicans. I don't need to tell you that black people have suffered plenty of hate in this country in many forms, and for many people, too many of them near you still brings unease. Sure, they're Americans and deserve a fair chance, just why do they have to be here, attending my daughter's school when there are so many other great ones they could go to?
You can say whatever you want about these views being unfounded or ridiculous, but that doesn't change the fact that many people still have them, and they instill fear at some level. But it's not acceptable to be fearful about these things or you're labeled as backwards, xenophobic white trash, when you're simply a hardworking guy trying to pay his mortgage and money left over for a couple of beers.
Donald Trump makes it okay to be scared about these things. He acknowledges that Mexicans are taking your jobs, and that one of these Syrians might be a terrorist. Not all of them, but just a couple here and there, and that's all you need for another catastrophe. He makes it okay to be scared that your factor may close or the country suffers another terrorist attack, and liberals don't seem to care, they'd rather help a bunch of random Syrians than help you.
A great example is the second debate when they were asked what they would do if the situation in Syria escalated - Hillary gave a wishy-washy answer about not having military occupation and sending in a few special forces to train their security forces. Trump made a blase comment about bombing the shit out of them.
Sure, Hillary may have given a better answer in terms of diplomacy or cautious military strategy or whatever, but If you're a guy who's worried about losing your job, or reeling form the memory of 9/11, who provides you more comfort - this loud over-the-top guy who says he's willing to bomb the fuck out of anyone who messes with us and build a wall - even if he never comes close to actually doing it, or this lady who you're sure is smart and all that, but seems to be far more concerned with helping everyone else, when no has helped you?
I'm sure none of them considered themselves racist or sexist, and few of them would even intentionally want to marginalize these groups, and from their perspective Hillary was only fighting for America, Trump is fighting for you. He's going to bring back the jobs that people seem to have forgotten about, and focus on protecting you first, and worrying about everyone else in the world second.
Massive disconnect between urban and rural areas, Wall Street and K Street and Main Street. Watching the results roll in last night it was clear the anchors have no idea what the thought process is in those red counties making up most of America (geographically). The middle class is the foundation of the country, and the media and "elites" are having a very difficult time gauging how to connect with that demographic (except for Trump, maybe he knows something we don't know).
Nice win.
Trump won because he got working class white rural America behind him. The question is, what do these people want and can he deliver? I mean if he follows Paul Ryan's lead there will be massive cuts to the social programs these people need. I don't see how he can bring manufacturing back to the Midwest. My theory is that, regardless of how successful he is overall, he has sold these people (working class rural America) an America that simply no longer exists and will never exist again. When their hopes do not come to fruition and Trump is closer to the status quo than blowing up the entire political system you're going to have a bunch of pissed off people. I'd appreciate any thoughts on this.
What social programs does the working class American take advantage of? I guess technically Medicare and social security, eventually, but that is supposed to "repay" what has been taxed historically.
the same social programs any other poor/ lower middle class American takes advantage of.
I am not surprised Trump won. The fact that he vanquished 16 other seasoned politicians in GOP primary was a sign of his exceptional political skill. Also, Trump had this message that brought the best (or worst) out of millions of voters that believed that all these guarded, fancy-talking politicians were all talk, no action. Trump's unapologetic and crude language about what he believed in and stood for gave people the strong conviction that he meant what he said. He didn't care how media portrayed him as this fascist nut-job that is unfit for office. He just cared about his message, no matter how controversial.
What surprised me though is how low Hillary's voter turnout was this year. Trump won the election despite receiving fewer votes than Romney or McCain. Hillary grossly under-performed all expectations and she just failed to excite any sizable voter bloc. She just had too many negative scandals around her and she just lacks the ability to energize or motivate audience. I dare say she may be book-smart about policies and all that, but she just isn't a gifted politician. She's kind of like Jeb Bush: deep in policy substance, low in energy and raw political skill. If Bernie Sanders was the nominee of DNC, I suspect this election would have turned out different. If democrats just scored 10-20 thousand more votes in FL, NC, or PA, this election would have gone their way.
I really don't understand how a person that has taken a single Economics course in their life could possibly vote for Bernie... Seriously
My asstastic ex-gf loved Bernie. She was so precious.
Obama did little to unite the nation. He focused more on his legacy instead of creating the opportunities more people to do better.
At the least, Trump deserves the same chance that Obama got.
November 7th: everyone predicts that Clinton wins and knows exactly why November 9th: everyone knows exactly why Trump won
I think Trump won because he got more electoral votes than Hillary, Johnson, or Stein.
Nice tautology. But if there are enough faithless electors, think again buddy...
don't trust mainstream media or the polls. my eyes were kinda opened to this after hearing some political experts talk at a conference, explaining the path to a Trump victory.
Trump's data guy was interviewed by Megyn Kelly last night. He said he was 95% confident of Trump's victory by the Sunday before the election by reviewing non-polling data. He predicted Trump with 305 electoral votes (he called Trump to win Colorado and to lose Wisconsin, his 2 misses). We may be entering a new era of political analysis.
With that said, RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende analyzed the polls and determined that they weren't "off"--it was the interpretation of the polls that were off. For example, Clinton was up in the RCP average 1.9 points in Pennsylvania, well within the collective margins of error, and the political pundits and the Clinton campaign basically assumed Clinton had PA won. That level of undue pundintry certainty is what left so many people--myself included--in shock.
Trump won because he knew that a high voter turnout and winner in bigger margins with white voters without a college degree could easily win him the election. Even 538 did a project demonstrating the say each demographic has in an election, toy around with the values to see how shifting the vote and turnout of each demographic affects the election:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
To GeoffBlade: great article with much truth. This was a tough campaign and election. With every election since Mr. Clinton I have learn to respect and appreciate my country. I'm pro USA and with that said I will continue to pray for those in authority, continue to educate myself for great employment and continue to work at being an asset to my country. USA , I love my country.
Barrel of Monkeys -Master Chimp
Fellows, it was all predicted 16 years ago in an episode of the Simpsons. Watch your Simpsons !
If you live in Maryland and voted/paid attention to the gubernatorial race ~2 years ago, you know exactly how/why Trump won.
I don't know how to quote here.
WTF? This reads like a bad google translate version of some foreign language rant.
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