Pokémon Go

Going on Facebook for the past few days makes me want to pull my hair out. It's full of discussions, videos, and pictures about Pokémon Go.

Nevertheless, I'd have to give Nintendo a +1 banana for this. Pokémon Go is really taking off.
I mean, check out these facts:

  • Two days after it was released in the US, it was installed on more than 5% of all Android devices in the country (that's more than Tinder).

  • It has nearly as many daily active users as Twitter.

  • The app’s average usage time is 43 minutes, higher than Instagram and Snapchat.

The success of Pokémon Go has led to a couple of interesting events, like these robbers who used the app to target victims, or like this Wyoming teen who discovered a dead body floating in a river while playing.

I've even heard about a guy who stopped his car in the middle of the highway to catch a Pikachu, causing a huge accident...

Any thoughts about the game?

 

"I've even heard about a guy who stopped his car in the middle of the highway to catch a Pikachu, causing a huge accident..."

Not sure if to LOL or feel bad....

As far as the game is concerned, most likely a fad... give it 6 months to a year tops before daily usage falls. But just my $0.02.

 

The highway incident actually turned out to be false. It definitely will be a fad, since there is only a limited number of Pokemon to catch. Right now, all the major Pokemon fans are going crazy about this because there is no new game out. Once the new game comes out in November, the enthusiasm for this app will die down.

I'm really surprised by the increase in Nintendo's stock. I was expecting the app's success to be baked in.

 
Entrepreneur100:
I'm really surprised by the increase in Nintendo's stock. I was expecting the app's success to be baked in.

Most of the surge is not really about Pokémon Go as Nintendo doesn't even own the entire revenue stream from that. The surge is really more about the expectation that Nintendo will start to publish more mobile games using their iconic properties (Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario, Metroid) which could be huge for the company. Additionally, people did not expect it would be THIS big.

Array
 
Hugh Myron:

There's a lot of money to be made off of 90s kid nostalgia now that we have a good chunk of disposable income.

This is it 100%.

All of the pokemon on the app that I've seen so far (from the 10328893951 screenshots - I do not have it although I'm not opposed because the games were a blast) are the originals, not the hundreds since. They know their target demo exactly.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

Haha... I was thinking about it on similar lines... I'm just waiting for there to be an incident with an aspiring summer analyst realizes that he needs to go to the CEO's office in order to catch a Pokemon. That has hilarity ensues written all over it.

 

Top story on reddit a few days back was a banking kid whose superior caught him playing. Since the bank has a no cameras policy, the kid got in a world of shit. Not sure of the legitimacy of this, but google it.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

Nintendo has a small stake in Niantic, the game's developer.

Therefore only a small piece of the profits will belong to Nintendo.

As such, the huge surge in share price has been a mistake by investors who overlooked how much % of the game Nintendo owns in the first place.

 

Popularity doesn't necessarily equate to income. Plus, the game is fucking terrible from a game perspective and not a popular thing everyone is doing perspective. I'm a closet nerd and play more than enough video games, including most of the main series pokemon titles. Pokemon Go has terrible servers, terrible lag, freezes or crashes with regularity, broken features, missing features that define the series, and just generally sucks. Tried it for a week and it's neither fun nor interesting. If it isn't DRAMATICALLY fixed/changed, I expect the user base to drop off.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
CRE:

Popularity doesn't necessarily equate to income. Plus, the game is fucking terrible from a game perspective and not a popular thing everyone is doing perspective. I'm a closet nerd and play more than enough video games, including most of the main series pokemon titles. Pokemon Go has terrible servers, terrible lag, freezes or crashes with regularity, broken features, missing features that define the series, and just generally sucks. Tried it for a week and it's neither fun nor interesting. If it isn't DRAMATICALLY fixed/changed, I expect the user base to drop off.

This happens with a lot of mass-popular games. I do my fair share of competitive gaming, and agree with this. All it takes is time, but eventually you will have a loyal fan base, and people will keep playing it.

The problem with Pokemon Go is marketing it as a platform to profit.

 

One year from now will the same amount of people still be playing Pokemon Go!? What about two months from now? Never be a sucker and get caught up in hype. Especially if that hype doesn't generate sustainable long-term revenue.

Please reference the stock charts of GoPro and Fitbit for examples. Some other fads in the past couple years include SodaStream, and Keurig Green Mountain before they got acquired, and Crocs.

 

If I had to guess I'd say :

1) Primarily short sellers - This is publicly available but too lazy to look up (nevermoind confirmed with 2 second google search) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/short-interest-in-nin…

2) To a much lesser degree, some insight into the poor quality of the game itself (see CRE's post above) provided revised expectations into users (ie revenue)

3) Probably not a market inefficiency and certainly not a market "mistake". I don't think any institutional holders "overlooked" the fact that Nintendo doesn't own 100% of the subsidiary prior to dumping hundreds of thousands (if not millions) in the stock. I mean look, the game has already made like $100MM revenue, and by some accounts is still bringing ~$2MM a day. Add that to the fact that it's like 100% margin and you have a stock pop.

At the end of the day this is a supposed to be a finance board, let's try and come off like we have a quantum of understanding of how the market works (even if you don't).

 

Who has tried it? Is it any fun? I collected the cards and played one of the GameBoy games around 5th grade... Looking back, if I choose to have kids, I am going to get them the electronic game that is a "one-and-done" expense instead of 300+ cards that are completely randomized in packs. My mom's poor bank account...

 

It's going to be the hit thing of mobile gaming for a while, the rest of the gaming industry will be untouched.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

Don't forget that Virtual Reality Gaming is gonna hit soon with Play Station releasing devices this fall.

I do think the gaming industry will change soon but let's see where it will land, there was also a failed try motion & sensor gaming devices such as xbox kinect and playstation move without much success.

 

Personally, Pokemon GO is a fad. People are only downloading it because of the Pokemon brand, and the game is actually pretty horrible IMO. It's buggy, crashes constantly, the mechanics could use a lot of work, and there's no storyline to keep people engaged. The app needed much more time in development, and was released way too early.

"There's nothing you can do if you're too scared to try." - Nickel Creek
 
  1. Mewtwo is obviously the most preftigious Pokemon. It is genetically engineered to have perfect SAT scores.

  2. Ultra Balls aren't cheating. If you have x99 Master Balls, people are going to wonder about you.

  3. Pokemon master is a sliding scale. Kanto is based off of Japan and therefore has has ~130mm inhabitants and there are 4 in the elite 4 + 1 champion, so the odds are slim.

  4. Obviously not if that gym leader is Brock. Both of his Pokemon are ground type and he lost to a Pikachu, although this was caused by a sprinkler malfunction. He's about as preftigious as Lass.

 
Alibabes56:

This game will be the end of human interaction...

I actually observed more kids in large groups yesterday running all over the place. So far we have no reported cases of them having an adverse reaction to sun exposure.

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
 
3200fps:
Alibabes56:

This game will be the end of human interaction...

I actually observed more kids in large groups yesterday running all over the place. So far we have no reported cases of them having an adverse reaction to sun exposure.

It's going to be a challenge for each of them to carry around their case of Coke heavy though.

 

It's just geocaching with Pokemon. The novelty will wear off soon enough (hopefully). Even as an avid player of the original Red and Blue versions of the first Pokemon game way back in the 4th grade, this doesn't interest me in the slightest. I'd rack up data overages like crazy and also look like an idiot just wandering the streets of Manhattan swinging my phone around looking for little digital sprites. I might as well be wearing a sandwich board that says "ROB ME".

 

Meh, it is ok but it is going to have to seriously improve to live up to its potential. The mechanics are absolute bull and it's just a collect-a-thon. However, I have added it to my workout routine by doing high intensity interval training (sprints) between Pokestops.

Plus, it's all Gen 1 Pokemon. What do you mean I can't evolve my Porygon??? Lol

 

I'm really surprised that many people on this forum know so much about Pokemon. I was expecting most people to barely know what a Pikachu is.

Once the fad starts dying down (basically when most people have caught the majority of the 151 Pokemon), I think they're going to add new features and most importantly, the next generation Pokemon.

Regardless of whether Nintendo chooses to put other games as apps, I am pretty sure that Pokemon is their best game that would succeed in the mobile market.

 
Entrepreneur100:

I'm really surprised that many people on this forum know so much about Pokemon. I was expecting most people to barely know what a Pikachu is.

I know next to nothing about it. Everything I know has been through WSO posts and usernames. I know Pikachu is the yellow bear but I don't even know if he's friend or foe. The only other thing I know about Pokemon are some epic troll accounts like Blaistoise and Squirtle. To me, on the surface, it looks like it should only be popular in Asia.
 

I'm 27, when I was in elementary school, every kid had a gameboy and pokemon red/blue/ trading cards. shit was no joke. basically you try to catch and collect fake animals. haven't played this go thing, but I want to watch my kids play it on wife's phone (they will never touch mine)

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 

Hopefully not. I know there's a need to get the kids who never move from their couch up and walking around, but I already go to the gym and work full time. I have time to play video games about once a week and it's 100% relaxation/decompression time. I don't want to be wandering around the city with my iphone, I want to be sitting in front of my flat screen with my PlayStation.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

Meets all the qualifications for what gamers want these days. It has a community to facilitate integration. It's a compelling story with compelling characters. Could be one of those secondary options for gamers. Like, there will still be a story mode, an online competitive platform, then the "Pokemon Go" package such as for the portable PlayStation thingy (you know how it can be linked to the PlayStation, I think it's a vita or something).

Either way, the monetization on this game is crazy and could be the missing key to mobile.

:

Want more impressive numbers from Pokemon Go? The game was installed on 5.2% of all Android devices and 60% of those users were playing the game every day. This translates to 3% of all Android users in the U.S. playing Pokemon Go on a daily basis. Pokemon Go is quickly becoming more popular than even Twitter. The current average play time for the game (43:23) is more time spent on apps like Whatsapp, Instagram, Snapchat, and even Facebook Messenger. Again, time will tell if this demand can keep up, but that is some impressive company Pokemon Go is beating out.

They're spending $1.6MM a day.

Just not sure what other types of games are out there where you can roam for a an actual reason. For any game that uses this gameplay does this attract more gamers?

 

use pokemon go as a way to get laid and you're winning

plus, taking girls on dates to hunt pokemon is a lot more fun than the usual gig, at least for me. and cheaper.

 

Wow. I never expect so much negative opinions on this app from a bunch of future would be IBankers and investors. The app has more concurrent users than candy crush at its peak in the US in just 5 days. It has more DAUs than twitter and tinder. FB wanted to buy snapchat for $3bn back when it generated no advertising revenue with 26m users in the US. Nintendo added +$10bn in its valuation due to this apps success, which only released in 3 countries and so far has almost the same # of daily users when FB made their offer. its arguable that the app will be the turning point for nintendo itself since overhead for pokemon go is seemingly easier to maintain than selling video game consoles at a loss. I don't think that the developers expect older millenials that grew up with pokemon would download this... the TV show and most of the marketing in the US has been always catered to the prepubescent kid (main character never ages, each season main character hits reset, pokemon battle mechanics re-explained). Only the first 151 pokemon have been released, and rumors have it that developers are already slated to release gen 2 by the end of this year, and there are 7 generations of pokemon in total. There are plenty of more content so I don't believe that this is just a fad, and this would definitely bring alot more features to monetize the app even further.

 

Pokemon Go is like the slightly less nerdier version of cosplay.

By that I mean, there are so many hot girls I met at a Pokemon Go block party here in Dallas which I'd love to play with my Poke Balls.

"It is better to have a friendship based on business, than a business based on friendship." - Rockefeller. "Live fast, die hard. Leave a good looking body." - Navy SEAL
 

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