What Role Did Luck Play in Getting Your Job?
What was the #1 factor in getting your job or internship? It's an interesting question. One I didn't really think about until an interview recently where a similar question was phrased along the lines of, " are you good? Or did you just stumble across a bull market while levered up?" Realistically, timing and luck are massive wild cards in your job search and are becoming even more so nowadays.
I wanted to frame this initially by category, but I think that the answer really manifests itself in where you came from background wise. I can reflect on myself, from a semi-target and with meager credentials at best and realize that it took an extraordinary amount of luck. Stupid amounts of it actually. Granted, I worked my ass off once I got a shot and it worked out for the better but at the end of the day luck was really a predominant factor. Of course, networking is probably the second biggest reason for me and as I saw for a lot of people. Having someone vouch for your opens doors that never would have existed and can at least get you a shot at impressing some big wig interviewers. Honestly, I'm probably the exception to the rule as I would never recommend the path I took to most people haha.
What I was really impressed with was that 10% of people said cold networking. I'm not sure if that's just a testament to the will of people who visit this site or just what it takes to get a job in this industry. Either way, kudos to you. Never really garnered the art of cold networking. So maybe, luck is just a culmination of all your hard work and preparation finally being realized or valued by someone else. I'm not sure, but I personally think it plays a larger role than It's given credit for.
Anyway, I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on what got you into the job or internship you are in currently, and maybe whether luck plays a larger role than we would like to admit?
The picture threw me off there for a bit.
yea... i was thinking "what the hell does andrew luck have to do with my job??". took me a while to figure that one out.
For most people I think it's the opposite. They got their jobs DESPITE being unlucky. Most people who are 1-4 years out of college got their jobs despite one of the worst job markets. Especially if you think of the 2006-2007 kids who not only got jobs easily but also got market high bonuses (80-90k) during the height of the market.
If you're mentioning luck in getting a specific role, it's hard to tell. Obviously you did well in interviews so it's not all luck, but sure I guess there's some "luck" in every job you get since there's always someone out there who is more qualified than you but perhaps you just caught someone in a happy mood or you knew of an alum and had an "in".
Whatever the case, who really cares? Just do the best you can and stop worrying about things you can't control.
I think with the amount of graduates who have great resumes, getting to interviews for almost anyone is lucky. After that, I would believe its determined by your abilities. The job I'm in originally was luck and then I crushed interviews and taking advantage of it. But I think years before us as a whole are lucky to have graduated during a strong economy.
I agree with this. Especially being close friends with a few recruiters at banks/financial services company. Once you get the job hard work and competency will usually outweigh luck
As a one T. Jefferson put it: "I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it"
If you're smart, network to get a few solid contacts, and show a willingness to join a particular firm, it's crazy how "lucky" you can get. But why admit it? If you sleep with a girl way out of your league, was it "lucky"? Damn straight it was, but you just play it off like you were really on your game that night.
I got a call from a headhunter one day in late April. If that's what you define as luck, I couldn't have been any luckier. Out of the fucking blue, I will never forget that moment. Still get the chills thinking about it because it put me in an industry I would have never considered otherwise. No idea where the guy found me or my number, but I'm sure glad he did.
100%. But then luck is simply about putting yourself in the right place repeatedly so that when luck hits, you are there waiting.
I think people get this idea that luck is everything in their head and they just stop trying. You don't win the lottery without playing and you don't get the job without emailing, calling and preparing. Even the most prepared person will not get hired all the time, but you cannot show up looking like a slob, unprepared and expect luck to do everything.
Put yourself in the right spot enough times and eventually something good will happen.
How I got the internship with the company that eventually hired me:
Of course Luck had a part. I mean look at him, total stud..
You can call it luck, but it's also improving the probability of getting the spot. That's why people cold call because it improves their chances that when they send their resume in, its not going to be thrown in the large pile of applicant resumes. You have your mind set on a position, then go after it.
Improving odds'Cold call, use headhunters, network alumni, linkedIn, go through family members, build relationships within the industry, increase knowledge on industry/research.
Luck plays a part in everything
A colleague of mine says the other day, "Whenever I get resumes, I immediately throw half of them in the trash can without looking. I don't want anybody unlucky working for me."
hahahaha, on the flipside you could just scoop out 1 resume completely at random from the giant pile and just hire that person. he'll be good because he was lucky.
^You stole that from the famous rumor about that MD. God, that was like 3 years ago.
I didn't say I came up with it, just something someone at the office said I thought was pretty funny...
Huge amount of luck. Networking with somebody in another industry, but they knew somebody who was looking for a research associate with my background. Two interviews later, I had my offer.
Anyone who has ever applied online and got the job owes 70% of it to luck.
im pretty sure thats not even possible...applying online and geting a job in finance!
theres no such thing as luck... THIS: "I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it"
This thread pisses me off.
Luck plays a small role. Being diligent with academics and extracurriculars during your time at school, learning about the industry, networking, getting any kind of experience you can... that's not luck. That's 99% hard work. I got pretty much every interview I applied for and got quite a few job offers out of that pool. I wasn't lucky, I was good. I hate this bullshit about "luck." I was lucky insofar as I had parents that instilled in me a passion for learning and a strong work ethic, and lived in America where many of these opportunities exist, but I paved my way, not some ambiguous element of chance.
Ray Allen is arguably the best 3-point shooter the NBA has ever had (maybe Reggie Miller is better). He gets furious when people say he is "blessed" with touch. He's worked at his skill longer and harder than anyone else ever has.
Luck plays a smaller and smaller role in your life as you grow older. Learn how to work hard. Learn how to spot your weaknesses. And learn how to constantly improve. The rest will take care of itself.
People who say that luck is the reason for one getting the job over another are just trying to find an excuse that doesn't hurt anyone's feelings. What's funny is you'd be better served if you were told you didn't get the job because someone was better than you... at least then you'd work a little harder or know you're not as great as you think you are, but in the participation trophy era we don't get that anymore and it's gonna keep killing kids.
Like you said, I've never felt lucky about getting where I wanted to go. I worked hard, hustled when I had to, and was just a legitimately better candidate than a lot of other people because of that. Sure, at some structural level it's true that "you didn't build that" because you weren't born a dyslexic mute, but past that for whatever reason people are reluctant to give credit where credit is due. There wasn't a single interview I didn't convert into an offer, and as far as that goes I really can't chalk it up to being lucky or something other than being good at what I do. The luck explanation is bullshit and is only going to hurt people who that actually need it.
And to whoever was talking about online applications... I got the interview/offer from the place I'm going to work via a straight up online submission on their website. They rarely interview and even more rarely hire, and when I got the phone call a few days later to interview, the last thing I thought to myself was how lucky I was that they noticed my resume. It's a combination of being a good candidate and being a good fit, and beyond owing my family for not beating my ass as a kid or forcing me to steal shit for milk money, I feel just fine saying I earned it on my own.
Luck - my first hedge fund job. I got a call from a headhunter who found my resume on Monster of all places. He had a position in "industry research" blah blah blah. I told him I didn't think it was a match but he kept saying buzz words from the job description he had. Kinda sorta sounded like an investment research job, so I said I'd come in. Had to meet with headhunter first and it turns out he ran a general staffing agency for temp secretaries.. He had me fill out one of those pages where you put down your last 3 jobs, your education including high school, and what your hourly wages were... I nearly walked out.
Long story short, he was the neighbor of my future HF PM. The PM had asked him for help in finding an analyst but I guess the recruiter had no idea what he was talking about.
My latest HF job - I got news that I had been rejected from what would've been an amazing opportunity. I was talking to a friend who had good success in getting interviews, so I had him send me his resume. I changed my format to match his and found an online job posting (job board) that day. Submitted, got picked out of the stack, and eventually got the job.
Outside of luck, the other intangible I'd highlight is personal interaction. I feel like hiring decisions are based on 1) were you referred to me by someone I know 2) do i like you, then 3) are you smart/talented, etc.
As I've been on the other side of the table, I hate to admit it, but Ivy league school, great GPA type people get dismissed if you can't hold a conversation. If you create personal rapport with the person interviewing, you'll be able to overcome a lot of shortcomings on your resume. If you can't, there's no connection and no reason to hire you over the other 100 applicants that are similarly talented.
Its 10% luck 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain and 100% to remember the name
Its 10% luck 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain and 100% to remember the name
Its 10% luck 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain and 100% to remember the name
lol.
I was born in this country: pure luck.
I was born into a family that wasn't full of crackheads/junkies/convicts and that instilled some sense of work ethic in me: pure luck.
I was born without mental or physical limitations: pure luck.
Without some or all of these things, no amount of hard work could have put me in the same spot in life. However, having these qualities without hard work, would doom you to mediocrity.
The point is this: everyone who is successful has had at least some combination of good luck and hard work. To argue otherwise is just self-serving delusion.
If you think your success was all you since the beginning of your existence, think about this: the hardest working sperm still fails if there is no egg to fertilize.
+1 you nailed it compadre
Doesn't Harvey Dent say he makes his own luck? I don't know if that's more ironic or tongue-in-cheek given he's also two-face!
You greatly increase your chances by playing the numbers game plus, as someone already said, being in places where randomness can help you. Networking is about that - being exposed to random events with high upside potential, and very few downsides, noticing your chance, and taking advantage of it before others will.
This strategy (plus having balls) helped me a lot. Got my IBD internship by randomly bumping into an MD of a boutique bank at an industry panel, then pitching myself on the spot - it just happened that he looked for an intern with my set of skills. Got two VC internship offers - one by cutting in front of a long line at a keynote at a target school I did not attend to bluntly ask the speaker (VC partner) whether he would hire me (while everyone else asked "how it is like to be a VC?" or "what is your opinion on current economic situation?"), another by catching a VC partner at an event, and chatting him up. Then got a transaction consulting assignment for a small company because someone from a random department there knew me, and referred me to HR. After I finished the assignment, I happened to sit next to the Chairman of the Board at the closing dinner - went drinking with him and another Board member after everyone left, in a month got a call from the CEO with an offer. Last week out of the blue I got a call from a headhunter I randomly met at a party some time ago for a position at a multinational corporation almost 2x my current salary. I don't know if I'll get that job, but the fact that I am one of the four candidates they are going to fly in for the interview after confidential search says I have a shot. I got all these chances before a large pool of applicants would compete with me.
Besides this, I was filling hundreds of online applications, and cold e-mailed hundreds of people when I needed a job - some of those also led to interviews. Also, took advantage of free advice/interview prep when it was offered on WSO and other places.
Was this luck? Partially it was, since it was all randomness. However, I worked hard to put myself into positions where I could benefit from random events, and then was able to grab them as soon as they appeared. Most people do not consciously do anything to maximize their chances to encounter positive random events. Moreover, there are many people who waste rare random chances they stumble upon. For example, they would take a business card from someone important they talked to, and then would not follow up. It's like meeting a girl at a club, dancing with her all night, getting her number, and then not calling her. Even though the probability of success is not very high from a single event, it adds up from many attempts. You've got very little to lose and everything to gain in such situations.
I have two answers that I'm split between 50/50: luck and ungodly persistence
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.
Cliche, but true.
The internships I've had are an example of "right time, right place" with a dose of preparation and never giving up.
I find it hilarious that people that pick stocks for a living can't conceive if luck playing a role in someone's success. I don't even know where to begin with that one.
My Success Story - Pure Luck (Originally Posted: 10/24/2013)
I'm writing this from a new account which I will be using from now on. I have, however, been a member for a year and a half on WSO.
This is the first part of my success story. The next part will be written in 2 to 4 years when hopefully I have made bank.
I recently became a first year analyst at a growth equity shop in an emerging market with no previous real M&A experience I had previously interned at this shop and they weren't looking for FT employees.
This company was born out of two of the execs in a leading VC firm in this country, and another exec from another leading VC partnering to create this new company. My company, since inception, took over the entire portfolio of the VC they left to manage it. Effectively, the difference to it being our fund is that it is the investors money, managed by the first VC, which we then manage. Therefore, carried interest goes through one extra avenue, which isn't great. So, I interned with them last year, and they liked my attitude and work ethic. Fine, they told me that and they said I overachieved... all great, but there wasn't a job for me so all that meant was a great reference. Following this internship I went to NYC for four months to intern in a ER/ECM/DCM shop and a $1bn AUM asset manager also, both internships during the same period.
During my time before NYC, at the growth equity shop, I met a lovely girl who I continued to speak to after leaving. She is now my girlfriend and I must admit that she was probably the main reason for me moving here.
Toward the end of my NYC time, I was worrying about where I would find a full time job. One day one of the partners at the growth equity shop wrote to me on skype saying "We were talking about you in the office the other day, we have a lot of business coming in and saying how we wish we had you here to help us with the work." I said, as it so happens I'm looking to move back. Things progressed from there and they basically said:
My full time employment will be entirely dependent on 2 of 3 immediate deals coming through, in order to afford me and in order for my presence to be needed. We will do 3 months on intern salary whilst sorting out my work permit, and then there might be full time employment for me. Currently, I'm on month five and FT. This is why I'm lucky in that I followed my "heart", because I would have seen it as too big a risk if it wasn't for this girl.
Fast-forward; the deals came in and more, I was told I will be employed FT. My firm does quarterly strategy sessions in a mansion by the beach over BBQ and beers/wine. I was invited to one where they explained my contract terms. My salary is very good relatively, but more importantly, they decided to incentivise me for the long term by giving me 10% of all excess money the company makes whilst they get 30% each. Whoa ! Remember, these are famous leaders in the VC industry in this country. What they also said was "We will see you as a partner, it's the four of us as the starting team" and they definitely walk the talk so far. I've never felt so respected by an employer before.
Now, I am even happier as things look even better than before. We have a pipeline of risk mitigated companies with interest from a lot of investors, but they have signed the right of first investment over to us so we control them.
As a result of this programme we run to get these companies, we have now been approached by a lot of investors for our new fund, but the best deal is about to close: This involves merging with a listed investment company that is in restructuring and insanely cheap, whilst also receiving a big chunk of money to manage, now as a listed company, part to buy out the portfolio we currently manage for a small valuation and part to invest in new co's.
What's great about this is two fold:
First, the previous VC that has the portfolio are tired and rich and couldn't care less. The portfolio is valued at $60 million roughly, and we're getting it for $5 million.
Second, my bosses are making sure I get stock options like they will in this listed company, and the plan is to use our reputation and activities to push up the price. This stock is worthless right now so the only way is up.
This is just the short term benefits for me personally. Once the deal happens, I will hire more analysts, and I quote "always be senior, and we will promote you to associate". More investments will be made etc etc, and I can have a pretty good career here. Once I'm ready to leave, if I'm ready to leave, I will go home and do a top MBA and move to European VC/PE.
Experience wise they are looking for me to start leading DD's, deals etc, and eventually probably leave the company to me.
Moreover, they are looking for a way to get me equity in the company.
I find this whole situation highly unreal and it's scary to think that if even one tiny thing had been different, I wouldn't have been in this position, but rather unemployed in London.
By the way, I owe EVERYTHING to WSO. Particularly in teaching me that finance is not for wimps and you need to work very hard to get what you want.
Some people are just legitimately good at what they do. It takes hustle ya know. Hard work too. It's roughly an equal combination of being great and being awesome. I, I, I, I......and I.
great story. i hope it works out well for you. would you mind sharing what industry your VC focuses on, if any?
Thanks ! TMT mostly, but there are exceptions. We are somewhat generalists, but our main focus is still TMT.
Nice story, I think people underestimate the importance of luck in getting dream jobs/offers- I'm sure my IB offer came, in part, because a VP who interviewed me had gone to the same school I had spent time at: a school that was across the world from the place in which we were interviewing. Complete coincidence, and super lucky.
Congrats man, hope it turns out well!
That sounds like your success is less about luck and more about just killing it. Congrats man, sound like you found the dream job!
That's an amazing story OP. You're right that it's lucky, but if you didn't have the interest, drive and attitude, you wouldn't have been able to create this opportunity for yourself!
The story started with you having already interned with this growth equity shop. I'm curious - how did you first land the internship that set everything in motion?
Beast. Congrats man. Luck and timing can never be downplayed.
Congrats OP, sounds like an amazing opportunity. It seems like they really wanted to sell you on joining with that contract. Can you explain more about your attitude/work ethic that made you so valuable to them?
Thanks !
Yes, I believe it comes down to these factors:
No task is beneath me. If someone comes into the office, I'm happy to act like a receptionist and make coffee for them, or if something needs to be delivered to somewhere that requires a 1 hour drive, I'm happy to do it, as long as it's beneficial to the firm, and I will do it with a smile on my face.
I fit in the company culture. These are people that are tired of corporate and like to have fun and joke around, and party. I'm definitely up for that.
I work very hard (as you all do, of course) but you'd be surprised at how many people will take 5 times the time it takes you to get stuff finished because they lack the drive. I was interning without pay but would stay up till very late at night building spotless models and making great presentations and whatever they needed, because I simply wanted a pat on the back. Moreover, they told me that they like the fact that they don't really have to brief me on things, they can give a 2 minute explanation and I will always come back with exactly what they wanted and more. Others need a long brief and then come back with something subpar or something completely different to what they wanted.
I'm just saying how things are, I really don't want to sound cocky. I lack a lot of things that would make me a bad fit at other places, but I filled a gap that they had perfectly and I serve to make their lives easier and the business efficiency better.
These things are over and above the normal requirements of being a pro at excel and PP, being smart and business savvy etc etc. But almost all of us WSOers are this. Another factor is that I'm quick and organised I guess, e.g. today we were at a conference, my boss asked me to write up an RFP, I did a 7 pager in about an hour or less and he said it was perfect. It's my first RFP. What I do lack in slightly is confidence to speak to the CEO's etc, but that has changed now as I've gotten more exposure. I'm expected to conduct meetings on my own with executives, and later on conduct the majority of the deal stuff (DD, model, Memorandum, etc etc) which will be very cool. They said once we've done 10 or so deals, you take over with your (then) team of analysts and we deal only with high level stuff.
The key thing I guess is to identify with the firm and do everything with the mindset of 'I'll to anything for the sake of the company'. It helps of course if your company respects you, which is rare.
Wow, cool story bro.
anyone feel like something bad is going to happen?
I felt that way, but what's the worst that could happen to me? Labour laws are quite strict over here. The contract is signed and there's almost no way out of it. Either I would have to do something illegal, come in drunk all the time and they would have to give me several warnings, and escalate several times if I didn't change to even have a chance to get me fired. Either that, or make my life hell and hope I quit.
How do you think something bad is going to happen?
lucky situation dude. I wouldn't leave for awhile lol if I were you.
Sounds like it's hard work AND luck. Not pure luck. :)
dude, what? 10% of the carry pool as a first year analyst? that's pretty fucking sweet.
Great story! It motivates me even more to work in the finance industry and be part of all that. Hope that one day I will be the one writing a post like this.
awesome story mate, congrats. people that underestimate timing and luck are kidding themselves. Its all about fitting in, luck and then creating more luck by working hard. Luck is severely underestimated. People give up on themselves too easy.
@Orkid , what emerging market are you working in? JW because im thinking of doing M&A in Latin America.
Sorry, I don't feel comfortable divulging but will let you all know once this deal has gone through.
All. Had I not been born into royalty, I believe it would have been very difficult indeed to obtain my current station in life. Now, where's my butler...?
Luck? (Originally Posted: 02/04/2012)
For those of you who know me, know that my adventures in the world of finance have been driven largely by debauchery and luck. My path and the recent rash of threads about target school admissions and job searches has made me think about the world of high finance. Do our backgrounds really matter? Can we really stand out from the crowd or is everything in life just plain dumb luck?
What I mean to say is, in a world where everyone has comperable stats do we really stand out, or are we just picked at random from a hat?
Have you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb, def worth a look if you are thinking about the role of Lady Fortuna in finance.
I was about the say the same thing. Read fooled by randomness, you won't be disappointed
make your own luck
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity
Nice.
My observation is that people have both good luck and bad luck over the span of their careers, much of which is outside of their control. The savvy obviously try to stack the odds in their favor, and a lot of success in this game comes down to risk management, both in the market and from a career perspective (the key question over meaningful time periods is not how much you can win, but how much you stand to lose, including on an opportunity cost basis). That said, luck, both good and bad, tends to normalize over time. Someone may get a lucky promotion or job offer early in their career, but over the span of a career, only the truly skilled can rise to a high level.
A lot of people don't seem to understand that about finance. The minute you take your foot off the pedal, you are losing ground relative to those who don't. People work insanely hard at even the highest levels of this game. It's a lifestyle, and if you don't want that lifestyle, you should do something else instead of relying on luck, because you will be disappointed with a luck-based approach over time. People who say "I'd rather be lucky than good" have no idea what they are talking about.
Mistake or Amazing Luck? (Originally Posted: 12/14/2012)
So I just received an email stating that I got an interview with SEO.
I didn't even complete/submit my online application, yet I was able to set up a skype interview. Is this a bug in their system?
I was waiting for the January deadline to submit my app, but apparently I still got an interview.
I have pretty average stats, so I don't know how I got this. If this is real, I won't mess it up!
Did this happen to anyone else?
No. Idk what to say. dont fuck up. this is a good break. but then again i could be wrong
Making my own luck (Originally Posted: 05/17/2014)
Hi,
This is my first post since I've joined WSO. I've been following it every day and I have to say I love the Sarcasm and the way you guys show you "the Bruh love" to each other.
Now to my question / asking for advice.
I know there must be tons of these question on the forum already but I want to know what else can I do to increase my chances of getting noticed by an recruiter. I'm at a non-target school (I'm not even in the US), my grades are good. I've been trying to network with the people here in my country but I want to step it up more in order to get an Internship at an IB abroad.
So what else can a Bruh do?
Thanks in advance...
Ps. going to use linkedin more to get to other recruiters abroad still need to find out a good way to approach I don't want to be seen as a stalker or anything.
Sorry I didn't mean to disrespect anyone but the way I see most people interacting on WSO seems like that. Well at least that's what I thought, once again sorry and I hope you can also give me some good advice. I already got the first which is, "Bruh" calling.
How much is based on luck? (Originally Posted: 12/26/2012)
I was talking with my cousin today whose a BA at McKinsey, and she was telling me about how big a factor luck plays in the interview process. Some people get a simple profit and loss case, where some people get a case where the number crunching is absurd, etc. Likewise, some people get a question in an industry that they're familiar with vs. those that don't....
Just curious to hear your thoughts.
its prob the biggest factor in most cases... If you get the right person on the right day.. you are golden... same holds true on the other side.. if you get the wrong person on the wrong day... you are DONE
I was interviewed in 2007 by a former baseball player and that alone got me a job which lead to my next job. Rest as they say is history.... if the former baseball player never met me... i would of never got first job... I played baseball in college so it all made sense.
I agree that luck is a huge factor but you also have to put yourself in that spot. If you didn't have the credentials to get through the initial screen and then get an interview you would have never gotten lucky by being interviewed by someone who played your same sport. On the flip side of this I would hate for someone to blame the fact they didn't get a job through their whole job search just on luck. If you give yourself the best opportunity at as many places as possible at least one of those times you will get 'lucky' and get the job. Sure, if you only get an interview at one place and the interviewer hates gingers and you have red hair that is unlucky. But you still should have had more than one interview.
I'd say it's probably close to 10% luck. 20% skill and then about 15% concentrated power and will. Seriously though if you get an easier case they're going to hold you to a higher standard. Let's use some common sense, a company that puts so much emphasis on what the data and analytics say aren't leaving their hiring process up to "luck".
Am I the only one who lol'd at this
I don't fully agree; most of you guys make it sound like there's just one interview round to get the job, which is rarely the case. Getting "lucky" once? Maybe. Getting "lucky" for two first round cases and another three final round cases? Not likely -- it's much more about skill and disciplined habits. I agree that luck might make or break you on an individual case, but the people who actually get the job have a lot more than that.
You get one person on your side and things can roll in your direction. As a group people dont like to go against the tide. If you can get one person pulling from you.. things look bright.
You can affect it slightly. You can try to fight it. But in the end, Luck is everything.
Especially for the Indianapolis Colts.
.
Luck fascinates me. I've come to the conclusion that every one of us was born terribly lucky. Otherwise we would not be debating about the amount of luck necessary to win offers at the top consulting and banking firms. There is huge luck involved in being in the position you are in now, that is well fed, well educated, and (at least) middle class. Luck in every other aspect is fluctuating. Sometimes you will be lucky, sometimes you will not. It doesn't matter though because if you are skilled and have prepared well you will have enough opportunities for it to even itself out. It's a numbers game.
I find you make your own luck more than anything. And you do so by working your ass off to take advantage of even small chances. Let me illustrate: say you only have a 10% chance of landing a job after an interview. Do you take the interview? OF COURSE. Because if you do 10 interviews, you are now likely to get the job. If you do 20, even more. As long as something has a probability >0% (and your opportunities at it are high enough), you can do it if you try enough times.
People who are "lucky" face the same tough odds as everyone, they just have the audacity to go after something where a single incidence will likely fail and the perseverance to keep working until they succeed. Others look at the one incidence where someone won on a 1% chance, but don't see the 99 times that person failed, and say "He had only a 1% chance but got the offer, he's so lucky!". Bullshit.
So keep networking, because one day it will pay off. Keep applying and interviewing, because as long as you have a chance, if you try enough times you cannot fail.
In the short-term, everything is luck (or 'noise' as the statisticians call it). That includes your interview at McKinsey.
Hence the importance of casting a wide net when you're job-hunting.
In the long-run, the 25-50% of your life that you can control should ultimately win out -- assuming, of course, that you're not an outlier (i.e., 'I won the lottery' lucky or 'I got hit by a bus' unlucky).
For the record, I am talking about people within a similar sphere of intelligence, ability, and starting point. The set of opportunities available to the son of a KKR founder is wildly different than the set of opportunities available to you. Similarly, the set of opportunities available to you is wildly different than the set of opportunities available to someone born in India. Unfortunately, that's another type of luck ('the ovarian lottery', as Warren Buffet would call it), and one that dictates a hell of a lot more of your life than the day-to-day noise that you're alluding to.
TL;DR: Do what you can. Results should follow, eventually.
I think about it like this. It's basically mathematically impossible (ie, approaches zero) for the matter and energy in the universe to exist in the relatively stable condition in which it currently resides. With that in mind, it's also mathematically extremely unlikely for the earth to exist with what science has ascertained to be the necessary foundation for a planet to conceive and sustain life. Hundreds of millions of years of evolution have led to humanity.
The chances of you existing as a result of your ancestors reproducing exactly right are also infinitesimally minute. Only 7 percent of the humans that have ever existed are alive right now, and it's not unreasonable to suggest that we experience the highest standard of living humanity has ever known. Out of the humans that are currently alive, half of them live on $2.50 per day. Presumably, because you speak English and are on the internet on a Wall Street forum, you are from the Western developed world. So yes, I'd say you are pretty damn lucky. Enjoy your iPhone.
Oh and I don't know anything about MBB consulting interviews, I'm undergrad at non-target state school trying to break into IBD.
Like Crunch said, you have have to put yourself in a position to be lucky. At the risk of being the platitude guy, you have to "make your own luck".
When I got my offer earlier in April, it was because a headhunter I'd never met before called me out of the blue (en route to Coachella, mind you) with an opening in a dream position. At the time, I was interviewing for unpaid internships with MM PE/IB firms (yes, post-grad unpaid internships), wondering how I was gonna explain to pops that he couldn't put his teet away just quite yet. Eventually made it to the third round of interviews and beat out at least one MBA because of knowledge I'd gained literally the week before studying for L1 of the CFA (what VaR and collar options are). Random recruiter calls? Conveniently studying the derivatives section a week before my interview I didn't know I'd be having? Sounds pretty lucky.
Fact is, the reason I am here now isn't attributable to divine intervention or some cosmic alignment of Saturn's moons with Sofia Vergera's rack. I was called by an energy finance recruiter because I sent my resume and cover letters out to more fims than I realized I even had. Sure, he didn't have to call me, and I didn't have to answer the minute before boarding a plane to California, but I did; and none of that would have happened if I hadn't set myself up for that "luck." Plenty of my friends with higher GPAs and higher bench presses never got that call because they weren't even in the arena. No skin in the game. Similarly, if I hadn't been studying for the CFA, there's no way I would have known what those things were (at least the collar option, caplets, etc). I was lucky, but only because I allowed myself to be.
Particularly applicable and good representation of my opinion
"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." - Thomas Jefferson
Considering literally every IB alumni I've networked with has attributed luck as the main factor to where they got today... despite them having really high GPAs, being super involved, numerous internships... I think luck plays a huge factor
you might think you make your own luck but there's always the factors under the table you don't see. Luck is a huge part of everything. Of course, flipping the coin over and over means you'll eventually land a string of heads - but that is still luck!
Working your ass off will increase your chances, but in the end, it comes down to factors outside of your control. That's not being unlucky, that's just not having enough luck as everyone else...
Coin flipping is actually probability, but I get what you're saying. Some people are certainly more lucky than others--Mark Cuban has referred to himself as the "luckiest man alive" in interviews. To a degree it's about being in the right place at the right time. Being in the right place is up to you for the most part; whether it's the right time is another story.
I've actually talked with my co-workers fairly extensively about this and arrived at the following conclusion (just my opinion). Once you've gotten an interview, the process is ~50% luck. That is to say, if you are the most qualified candidate, don't make any mistakes, and definitely deserve a job, you have about a 50% chance of actually getting the job.
The type of case that you get in the interview matters a little, but that's not what really constitutes the "luck" aspect of the interviews. It's more based on a complex interaction of the personality of the interviewers you get, how that meshes with your personality the questions, and the mood everyone is in that day. The process is tough and is specifically designed to have more false negatives than false positives.
This seems to be the best response in the thread... I'd buy the 50% number. Dorsk, do you find, honestly, that it's something of a crapshoot which candidate you recommend over another, similarly overqualified candidate? Or, that you're differentiating them based on small and fairly trivial factors/impressions?
I ask because I've heard other types of admissions recruiters for highly selective organizations (college, grad schools) express similar sentiments. Would make sense for consulting to follow this pattern, too.
Agree 100% with this and the other response from Dorsk.
I have yet to read all of the comments above but I would say it's a combination of both. I interviewed with a U.S. Navy Seal of 10 years and had recently been selected for a leadership conference with the U.S. Naval Academy. In short, I got the interview. A little stroke of luck there. At the same time, there will always be those interviews where a person is having a bad day or doesn't want to be there. At this point, it will take a very skilled interviewee to impress this person and gain their interest.
Is it luck? (Originally Posted: 05/24/2012)
Your friend was able to get into that prestigious college. The girl who sits next to you in class received the highest grade on the last exam. On the way to work a man sped by you driving a brand new sports car. The guy living next to you is dating the best-looking girl you’ve seen. These people sure are lucky, aren’t they?
But there is no luck, at least not in most everyday situations (unless you’re a daily Russian Roulette player). Yet people are quick to assert that anyone better off than them was simply the “luckier” one. Luck implies good fortune is beyond the control of those who receive it. The people described as “lucky” above simply knew how to develop their own opportunities. They created their own good fortune.
Luck doesn’t fill out a college application for you. Luck doesn’t give you high grades (although during finals many of us end up praying it will). Unless won in a raffle, luck doesn’t take out an auto loan and get you a vehicle. And, unfortunately, luck isn’t likely to find you a date this weekend. Why do the “have-nots” think the “haves” are better at spinning the wheel of luck? Because blaming the eternal cosmos for their own shortcomings is easier than admitting they failed to develop the opportunities for themselves. Most people are not able to recognize the multiple opportunities they are given each day.
Little things take away from our ability to take advantage of these opportunities. Fear, nervousness, doubt, procrastination, other negative emotions and insecurities prevent us from doing things we know could improve our lives. And when others are able to overcome these things, we call it “luck” – and deny the reality that we could have taken a similar path and arrived at the same destination.
Seemingly tiny missed opportunities add up in the long run. These little opportunities pave the way to the bigger ones, the ones you’ll claim other people got through luck. If you want to be in their shoes, you need to start making the most out of each and every day. For example, that pretty girl you’ve been attracted to all semester but you’ve been too scared to make a move on?
Unfortunately, you’ve waited too long and missed your opportunity. She and I started dating last week. Turns out she was just waiting for someone to ask her. I suppose you could call me “lucky.”
According to "Marc and Angel Hack Life", here are ten things "lucky" people do differently:
Thanks for sharing. I am a big fan of "Marc and Angel Hack Life".
"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." - Thomas Jefferson
I'm a have, and most of it has been some product of luck/randomness.
Do the "haves" work harder than the single black mother who is raising two kids on her own who was never given the guidance to succeed? I was told to study, get good grades, fill out college applications, get a job. I'm lucky i was given every opportunity i needed to be successful.
Personally, i find it annoying when the most well off people try to feel superior to other by claiming that they earned it, or they deserve it.
You could've been successful as me if you had just: maintained a relaxed attitude that is open and aware. used intuition and gut instincts to make successful decisions. noticed little things and solve small problems. treated your failures as an opportunity to learn and grow. appreciated what you have right now. worked toward your goals every day without fail. helped when you’re able. tended to see the positive side of your ill fortune. enjoyed new experiences and taken calculated risks. believed you COULD.
Does that seem pretentious to anyone else?
sometimes people are lucky though... jus sayin
yes, it does
I remember a speech by Warren Buffett awhile back, maybe it was at Upenn. But anyways Buffett talked about the things he was born with that gave him the opportunity to succeed. I hate to say it (because I believe in hard work and hate to make excuses) but luck is HUGE. Look at how many people are born into poverty. So many of us on WSO can say we are already lucky, and thats half the battle.
Thanks for the post
Yeah Buffett has mentioned a few times just how lucky it was for him to be born in the US. There are a lot of countries/cultures in the world where his specific skill set wouldn't be valuable.
I know that I am a hard working individual, and sometimes when people say "omg you're so lucky!" I laugh because they don't know what it takes, but I recognize that a lot of things growing up were given to me / provided for by my parents. If I was born into a less fortunate situation things could've easily been different.
It's mostly hard work, but timing does matter, opportunities matter. Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell talks a lot about timing, think of it this way, if you were born in 1910-1915 as you started career you got nailed by the great depression, if you were born in the 1930s you started your career as America was truly coming into its own. That said opportunity is a necessary, but not sufficient factor, at some point it does come down to hard work.
It's always a combination of both--the ratio depending on the context and the will of the person involved.
I didn't get into a good school because I slacked. I didn't get a good intership because I slacked/wasnt aware how competitive finance is. This is 100% my fault.
But to say the rich and the poor have the same opportunities is incredibly naive. Hard work usually trumps all, but having a wealthy family with great connections sure as hell helps.
When and where you were born is a pretty big factor as well.
Just my $0.02
+1, Couldn't have said it any better.
Great post
This reminded me about an article I read about a month ago talking about how the younger generation uses the term "random" all the time to describe things that are not random at all. The article even cited some dumb kids show called "That's So Random." I'm glad these morons are out there so they can continue to believe in this fallacy of luck determining things and I can reap the benefits of them not being smart/driven enough to change their "luck".
Losers whine about doing they're best, winners go home and fuck the prom queen.
To deny that luck can play a humongous factor in some things is just ridiculous. Also, you completely butchered "their".
PS I didn't throw the poo poo
sean connery.. respect.
If Taleb was dead he would be rolling over in his grave.
Luck/Randomness is huge in shaping who you are and what you believe in.
When I was going through my training at my bank they had a motto.
Success= Talent & Skills (What you bring and we teach)+Drive (Hard work)+ Opportunities (Luck)
Its a stupid little formula but it is true. The more you have of one the less you need of the others. However, you need all 3. A very lucky guy doesn't need to work AS hard as an unlucky guy but he still must work hard to be a success. A guy with unmatched drive doesnt need to be the smartest or the luckest to succeed
luck is only 10%.
This is 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain, And 100% reason to remember the name!
Luck and work are both huge factors, and neither should be discounted by the importance of the other. "Successful" people (and i quote that because success is extremely subjective) claim it was all hardwork. "Unsuccessful" people claim it was all bad luck. Id argue they're both wrong. The former most certainly had luck, and the latter certainly could have worked harder.
There is no such thing as luck. I'll buy beers for the first person that can show me empirical evidence of its existence. Being in the right place at the right time? Sure- but that's simply chance.
It goes without saying that I'm not superstitious.
"He's just lucky", to me, is analogous to saying "beauty is on the inside", which is just something invented by chubbers to rationalize their own self-induced sloth.
You obviously have never played tournament poker before.
You were born in the US/Europe or other civilized place in this day and age. If you had been born in the wrong tribe in war time in Africa you probably would have been killed. If you had been born in Zaire and your parents and family had died after your birth I don't care how hard you are willing to work you would be dead right now. If you had been born with down syndrome or other serious condition or mental impairment you wouldn't be having the great life you are having. If you had been born in Sparta in 700 BC with short legs they would have literally thrown you off a cliff. So if you take in account all the people who have been born since humanity exists you are an extreme outlier event, so yeah, you're lucky. I do agree however with the general idea that this doesn't apply to 99% of the people who complain about luck. Anyone born healthy today in the US or Europe has the possibility to provide a great life for himself, no matter how poor he is born. For some it will be harder than for others, but they all have the possibility. Or people born in horrible situation but who are not willing to put the means to come out of it.
If you consider it globally, luck accounts for 99% of your life.
If you are born from a starving somalian mother, and can only drink poisoned water, I don't think that hard work can help. If you are born in North Korea, your life is a failure before it even starts. If you are born with a big ailment or handicap, you are forced to depend on other for the rest of your life. If you are born in a War zone, chances are that you will die for no reason after being raped and reduced to slavery.
And this is not "exceptional". Actually most of human beings are born in absolute dire conditions.
Hard work becomes a huge factor only to go from being in the top 30% to the top 1% or 0,1% of well-being. If you are born in the bottom 30% of human conditions, only a miracle or a fabulous streak of events can save you from a miserable life. If you are in between, you need a bit of both.
That said, 80% if not more of the US citizens are already in the top 30% of humanity on a "well-being scale", so "bad luck" isn't really a good reason for failure.
lifes a normal distribution. we can control where we direct our mean. its just like golf. every one will be at the tail end of their normal distribution and make a few 30ft puts and miss a few 1ft puts, but in the end the best golfer (the highest mean) will be on the podium the most.
The point of this post wasn't to argue that hard work can achieve anything. In fact, this post has very little to do with hard work at all. Instead it was to argue that those commonly perceived as "lucky" have typically found ways to maximize the potential "lucky" opportunities they could find themselves in.
We can all agree that the winner of the lottery is a lucky man, but if he hadn't bought a ticket he could have never won. In a more practical sense, the post is about overcoming any personal obstacles (fear, doubt, insecurity, etc) that prevents us from things like asking for a promotion, applying for our dream job/school, or asking out the girl you see in the elevator every morning.
Much of the dissent here seems to confuse "luck" with "chance". Chance tells us a coin will land on heads roughly half the time. Luck tells us Person X is able to change that. Neither is possible without flipping the coin, and a lot of people metaphorically refuse to do just that.
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