How to value a startup?

I am currently in corporate acquisitions for a summer internship, how would you guys value a startup acquisition ?
I see that most of the times it's about Sales multiples for the company itself, for comparables and transactions too. Since DCF doesn't make much sense (usually startups are private so it's tough to get data except for general revenues and normally CashFlow is always negative for a startup)

Are there other multiples or more complex ratios ?

Thx

 

Thanks but usually if you want to acquire a startup it's private firm so you don't have any idea of its profits. Moreover there are usually very few comparable public companies since a startup should come up with proprietary technologies or some niche to be efficient. Think about Ebay, Skype, Vontu (anti data leakage), VMWare (which is now public at 10% but before was private and without a real competitor), ...so comps are not working usually in that case...

 

A DCF can be used assuming you are semi-comfortable with the firm and the company eventually reports positive cash-flows. precedent transactions/exits should give you also a sense of what to expect.

I'm sure others have a more refined approach. I'd also google how VC firms value start-ups it should give you a sense of where they come up with their pre-money valuations.

 
yig:

Maybe look at some comps.

Comps analysis only useful when you have like-for-like comps data publicly available, which is generally not the case for start ups.

And, at start up stage when EBITDA is deeply negative, you're usually then comping price to UVs, price to sales multiples or some other useless bullshit that TMT bankers love to pretend have meaning.

Those who can, do. Those who can't, post threads about how to do it on WSO.
 
Rhys da Vinci:
I’ve come to the same conclusion that it seems everyone else does. The numbers, in the end, don’t tell the whole story, though hopefully these figures give you a frame of reference. It’s a trite expression at this point, but a startup is the right choice if it’s something you love doing – not necessarily for the intrinsic happiness it gives you from day to day, but the value of being convinced that you need to do what you are doing every day in order to make the world a significantly better place.
Not even that. The YCombinator experience is not going to "set you back" if your startup tanks. People in the Valley respect the name. Some probably see it as a helpful resume booster. Fast forward 15 years and I doubt that person is financially hurting because he originally passed up an entry-level job for YC.

Similarly, running numbers on the IB-->>PE-->>MBA path is way shortsighted. Look at that person's earnings at age 35 and THEN compare. A senior banker would laugh at this comparison of junior-level bonuses. Most of those 24-year old guys in NY blow through that money anyway. We're talking pennies versus what the partners make.

 

People in the Valley (and elsewhere) might respect the name, and if you're an engineer it probably doesn't matter that at your last company the salespeople couldn't sell the product you built, or the finance guys couldn't get the next funding round to pay your salary. You'll be hired easily, and the Y Combinator name will be a boost to your resume.

On the other hand, if your background is finance or consulting (i.e. the intended audience of this site and my post), if you want to get back on that career track after your startup - which you likely will, as the startup experience is unlikely to give you any more lucrative career options - you will be starting over at the level at which you left, in the best case scenario. It's also highly likely you'll have to take a lower position than from when you left. If you left straight out of college, your chances of getting into IB/PE/HF/consulting at that point will be very low.

I somewhat agree with your second point, though - that's the general point of the "Terminal/Exit Value" section. I do think it's helpful to have these numbers as a point of reference. If data were available on people who took the two different paths a decade ago, that would be nice, but it isn't. (Or at least I'm too lazy to go do the data collection myself.) What I can do is have a better understanding of where each path may leave me in the short term, which better positions me to assess how my future earnings and career will be impacted. If I understand where I might be five years into the future, I can make much better predictions about where I might be 10 - 20 years in the future, which should be my primary consideration in this whole dilemma, as you point out.

 

I really don't think YC is as special as you make it out to be. I have three friends who did YC. I only know one Rhodes Scholar. Please let's not pull a Brady4MVP, here. It is good experience but not moreso than two years in the front office at a large bank.

The one value of YC is that it is validation that your startup may be closer to that upper tail. I would not compare it to doing all of Harvard undergrad, GS, HBS, KKR. The two are completely different. Prestige does not exist in tech or in the startup world. Especially in an industry where two kids in the back of a garage can build a better social media business than you.

 

You're kidding, right? The YC guys have mad swagger...

But seriously - to clarify, what I am saying is that YC and the other top 2 or 3 accelerators provide a degree of validation, connections, funding, etc. that is an order of magnitude greater than those provided by the dozens of other decent accelerators in existence. I certainly don't mean to say that a few months in YC is as "prestigious" as any of those examples; I'm only trying to illustrate the structure of the startup world in terms that the audience here will quickly comprehend.

Having said that, I do disagree about prestige not existing in the tech or startup world. It might not be quite as all-encompassing as in the investment banking world, but it's much more important than in your average industry. People from Stanford get into Google, people from YC get investments from the big name VCs... it's really not that different.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

I really don't think YC is as special as you make it out to be. I have three friends who did YC. I only know one Rhodes Scholar. Please let's not pull a Brady4MVP, here. It is good experience but not moreso than two years in the front office at a large bank.

You can't be serious. I agree that YC (and most other accelerators) are hyped beyond reason, but there's simply no comparison between FO BB roles and going to YC. There are thousands of FO positions at BBs every year; YC is more selective, more interesting, more demanding and will build your network far more valuably than working in IB.

I'd take someone who sent a company through YC and seed capital before failing over a Rhodes Scholar any day. Let alone just another FO BB analyst.

"For all the tribulations in our lives, for all the troubles that remain in the world, the decline of violence is an accomplishment we can savor, and an impetus to cherish the forces of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible."
 
IlliniProgrammer:

I really don't think YC is as special as you make it out to be. I have three friends who did YC. I only know one Rhodes Scholar. Please let's not pull a Brady4MVP, here. It is good experience but not moreso than two years in the front office at a large bank.

The one value of YC is that it is validation that your startup may be closer to that upper tail. I would not compare it to doing all of Harvard undergrad, GS, HBS, KKR. The two are completely different. Prestige does not exist in tech or in the startup world. Especially in an industry where two kids in the back of a garage can build a better social media business than you.

I think it is funny that people take as a given that "prestige" has infected wall st to such a degree that it is used as a a baseline of snobbery to judge other industries...i dont want to get off on a tangent but the belief that that one has to have XYZ background to succeed on wall st is really something that is much more ingrained in the minds of 22 year olds on this site then it is in reality. Textbook example of a "limiting belief".

 

It is true that many startups will fail, but so will many financial careers. I don't think anybody made that point yet, but it is of course naive to believe most WSO members will end up as partners at anything finance-related.

One must beat the odds either way

 

There is totally prestige in Tech, probably just as much if not more so than IB. All the big tech firms hire at "target" schools for the good entry level jobs. For VC funding, one likely needs to have gone to a "target" to get a meeting or worked at a top firm to get a meeting. Yes, it is possible to be a kid in a garage that is the next big thing but that kid likely went to Stanford/Harvard/MIT.

Tech is just a current cycle of the same type A personalities that go into leading fields.

EDIT

On that note, I just scrolled though about the first 15 companies from YCs latest class. Almost everyone was either 1. had gone to a "target" school, 2. had successfully already been an entrepreneur, 3. worked top tech firm in a non entry level capacity - or all/mix of the above. These weren't undergrads rather mid career level people that have already proven to be very successful making into YC.

 

The tech firms also hire at non-targets. Sergey Brin said that UIUC is Google's most prolific source of tech talent.

When a list of the best CS schools, when a list of where people at a top tech firm like Google or Facebook is either dominated or at least has a fairly strong plurality from flagship state universities, there's no "prestige" in tech. I say that as someone who has a tech role and has had recruiters from Palantir and Facebook offering jobs without an interview.

Seriously we need to prevent the same shit that happened to banking from happening in tech. This is most likely to happen if a bunch of douchey bankers start fawning over the industry. The lifeblood of this industry is some lonely fat kid who reads comic books and is great at programming thinking he has a chance here, getting that chance- and then becoming the next Mark Zuckerberg. If you have a good idea, and it can make money, there are few barriers to entry in tech. We are not a prestige business. We are not an exclusive business either, provided you have something to offer in the STEM department. If you are decent at coding (most people aren't) and you like (A) D&D (B) Star Trek (C) Final Fantasy (D) Comic Books or (E) LARPing there is always a place for you in this business.

 

I'm a huge Sergey fan, but if he really said that, he desperately needs to spend some quality time with his HR director. UIUC isn't even in the top five: http://goo.gl/9uhJwN. I would guess it's top ten, but doesn't that match up exactly with UIUC's computer science school's national ranking? That seems to prove the point that prestige matters, not the opposite.

The top five feeder schools for Google are exactly the five most of us would guess: Stanford, UC Berkeley, UCLA, CMU, and MIT. Sure, plenty of state school kids are going to get into Google, just like plenty of state school kids are going to get into Goldman Sachs, but for the most part they're going to get the equivalent of the back office jobs, not the IBD TMT gigs.

Like any industry, once you've proved yourself through performance in the tech industry you can get hired anywhere - that doesn't say anything about the role of prestige.

The tech industry loves to pretend that it's still the geek's paradise it was in its early years, and hasn't fallen prey to the "corporation mentality". That ship sailed decades ago. Every industry needs an efficient mechanism for optimal identification and distribution of resources, including talent, and the tech industry has now passed through those early stages when that mechanism is still being built. Like I said, it's not quite at the level of ruthlessness we see in the finance industry, and it probably never will due to the nature of the industry (barriers to entry, capital requirements, etc.) but it is definitely there.

I have tremendous respect for @"IlliniProgrammer"'s contributions to this forum, but I have to respectfully disagree on this point.

 

They deleted a lot of posts after Brady4MVP quit the site. It is possible that the "HBS students have MAD SWAGGER" comment might have gotten removed.

But seriously the more we all hype tech- the less we make it seem like it is a safe and comfortable and dark corner for geeks to hang out in, the more we undermine the whole business. YC is not prestigious- it is a safe place for geeky people to hang out and start a business.

 

Bingo. Not a single one of Google's top five schools is an ivy and three (UC Berkeley, CMU, UCLA) are non-targets. Google's top five list includes as many state schools as targets for banking.

We work in a prestige-free, competence based industry. Anybody with a computer and a GED can build a startup that becomes the next twitter. Let's stop worrying about prestige and let's start worrying about what people actually accomplish. Building a startup that gets funded by YC is an accomplishment. It is not prestige.

 

The target/nontarget bifurcation we typically discuss on WSO is assumed to be in the context of the finance and consulting industry. The classifications are different in this discussion. Every industry has different "targets", and the tech industry's targets aren't Ivies, they're tech-focused schools like CMU and MIT.

 
Rhys da Vinci:

The target/nontarget bifurcation we typically discuss on WSO is assumed to be in the context of the finance and consulting industry. The classifications are different in this discussion. Every industry has different "targets", and the tech industry's targets aren't Ivies, they're tech-focused schools like CMU and MIT.

But if you ask the average student at UC Berkeley or UCLA or even CMU whether they go to a prestigious school, most will say no. If you ask the average engineer at MIT if he goes to a prestigious school, the answer will be "No, fuck you. Harvard is that way, asshole." (At Stanford people will probably agree with you)

People and industries are only as prestigious as they are willing to see themselves. And tech does not want to be seen as prestigious. This is what destroyed finance in 2008. People who did not know what they were doing got hired on prestige and made decisions that they were not capable of understanding.

You are free to claim that someone is elite or prestigious, but if they don't agree with you, they're kind of the experts on this. Go into tech if you want to be a geek or if you want to create stuff. Don't go in because you want prestige.

There are a number of structural barriers to tech becoming a prestige industry. The biggest of which is the fact that techies are actually negatively resistant to being the cool kids. The second biggest is the fact that we are smart enough to realize that as soon as you add prestige as some sort of magnet to this industry, we start hiring idiots who are attracted to prestige. In 20 years, we go the way of finance.

So please stop acting like tech is prestigious. It isn't prestigious, we don't like it when you call it prestigious, and calling it prestigious hurts the industry. The only reason tech is prestigious is that it is one of the last industries that hasn't been completely ruined by douchebaggery (which is 20 years away the moment people see tech as a prestigious place to work).

Screw it, I'm quitting my job as a quant to be a motorcycle mechanic if this is what happens.

 
Best Response
IlliniProgrammer:

But if you ask the average student at UC Berkeley or UCLA or even CMU whether they go to a prestigious school, most will say no. If you ask the average engineer at MIT if he goes to a prestigious school, the answer will be "No, fuck you. Harvard is that way, asshole." (At Stanford people will probably agree with you)

People and industries are only as prestigious as they are willing to see themselves. And tech does not want to be seen as prestigious. This is what destroyed finance in 2008. People who did not know what they were doing got hired on prestige and made decisions that they were not capable of understanding.

You are free to claim that someone is elite or prestigious, but if they don't agree with you, they're kind of the experts on this. Go into tech if you want to be a geek or if you want to create stuff. Don't go in because you want prestige.

There are a number of structural barriers to tech becoming a prestige industry. The biggest of which is the fact that techies are actually negatively resistant to being the cool kids. The second biggest is the fact that we are smart enough to realize that as soon as you add prestige as some sort of magnet to this industry, we start hiring idiots who are attracted to prestige. In 20 years, we go the way of finance.

So please stop acting like tech is prestigious. It isn't prestigious, we don't like it when you call it prestigious, and calling it prestigious hurts the industry. The only reason tech is prestigious is that it is one of the last industries that hasn't been completely ruined by douchebaggery (which is 20 years away the moment people see tech as a prestigious place to work).

Screw it, I'm quitting my job as a quant to be a motorcycle mechanic if this is what happens.

You're just parsing the definition of "prestige" here.

I know dozens of techies at the likes of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter, etc. and others who are founding members of VC-backed start-ups. I can assure you that they are just as keen to judge someone based on their credentialing as are finance folk.

Sure, they don't care about Harvard; but you'll have them drooling if you have a CS degree from Stanford. They toss around brands like FB, Airbnb, Uber, etc. as analogues to GS, MS, BX, etc. They turn a supercilious brow to finance and consulting grads, whom they view as less intelligent (probably accurately). They would kill to be accepted into YC and treat its alumni as royalty.

That's why every start-up has the same hopelessly trite HTML5 scrolling splash landing. It's why each one has a page devoted to detailing which VC firms back them, the accelerators in which they participated and the hipster-vague bios for their "team", meant to portray how "cool" they are for not listing where they worked and throwing a bone to their yoga instructor.

If Silicon Valley isn't just as superficial as Wall Street, it's worse. And, for the most part, my techie friends who work there are happy to admit as much. Gideon Lewis-Kraus' No Exit is a nice introduction to the Valley. Two hard-working programmer-entrepreneurs, living in Hacker Houses, clamoring to put Google Ventures on their cap structure, bowing to the gods for their MIT PhD team addition, lauding their Persian rug angels for their notable successes with high-flying social media investments.

Tech is undeniably more meritocratic, competitive and technical. It attracts some of the most intelligent people I know. They may measure their prestige in a different currency, but that currency is just as valuable in the Valley as it is on Wall Street. It's not "prestige" in the "traditional, old money, burgundy upholstery, Harvard men" sense, but in the "new money, Sean Parker, f*** establishment, my-bio-is-about-my-kickboxing-instructor, 30-under-30, Stanford brigade" sense. But don't fool yourself, it's prestige all the same.

"For all the tribulations in our lives, for all the troubles that remain in the world, the decline of violence is an accomplishment we can savor, and an impetus to cherish the forces of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible."
 
IlliniProgrammer:

Bingo. Not a single one of Google's top five schools is an ivy and three (UC Berkeley, CMU, UCLA) are non-targets. Google's top five list includes as many state schools as targets for banking.

We work in a prestige-free, competence based industry. Anybody with a computer and a GED can build a startup that becomes the next twitter. Let's stop worrying about prestige and let's start worrying about what people actually accomplish. Building a startup that gets funded by YC is an accomplishment. It is not prestige.

Illi are you in tech now? Did you join a startup? What does your firm do?

Too late for second-guessing Too late to go back to sleep.
 

"50% of the companies are either operating or were sold at valuations below $40M, which to me is a break-even for a few years in finance or consulting."

Are you stupid? You're comparing a few years of banking/consulting to selling a business. You're fulll of shit. Esp if you come off YC you're spending 1-2 years of your life at exit most likely at a decent technology company ie. TWTR, FB, LNKD, GOOG etc or somewhere else waiting through your earn out. That will land you some kind of senior title in a technology company, the kudos of that brand oh and of course cash and stock from a public market company.

I can tell with absolute certain even after your earn out finishes you will either get 1) picked up by a fund 2) run another company or 3) go work in a fairly senior role for another firm. You're not gona starve or be considered a failure or in anyway comparable to some pussy that went into investment banking/consulting for the so-called "prestige".

Comparing an exit to a few years at a startup what an absolute LOON.

 

Again, please read the post before commenting next time. Nobody is comparing an exit to a few years at a startup. The comparison that is being made is an equivalent time period as a founder of a startup that reaches a successful exit vs. the same amount of time with a position in management consulting/investment banking/private equity/hedge fund/other high-paying finance position.

Since it doesn't appear you have the ability to do this yourself, I'll break it out. Assuming the median valuation is right in the middle of that range ($20M - this is being a bit generous to the startup track, as a quarter of that category is actually below $5M), assuming that the median exit time is in the middle of my stated range (7 years - again, being a bit generous to the startup track, as the median for this valuation range is a bit higher by most studies I've seen), and assuming that your share of equity by exit stays all the way up at 15% (again, generous), you're getting an average of $400k a year from equity and $100k for salary, for $500k/year total. A post-MBA associate at a megafund private equity firm, as a point of reference, will make $525k/year on average (per WSO's PE guide). That number, of course, will be lower for the overall industry and for lower-level positions, and higher for VPs, directors, principals, etc.

Like I said in my original post, the assumptions I make are quite subject to debate. Both sides of the equation are highly variable, and the consulting/finance side is especially variable based on what level you are during that time period. However, I would ask that you present your own assumptions so that we can at least understand how and why you disagree before making broad, sweeping conclusions and hurling insults.

 

A few thoughts.

This prestige/meritocracy debate is a circle jerk. At the end of the day, it's all about achieving a big exit. And that's where Silicon Valley shines. If having mostly pedigreed engineers on board makes that easier, then that's what's going to happen. http://blogmaverick.com/2014/03/19/the-back-to-the-future-arbitrage-of-…

I think a budding entrepreneur with a background in finance/management consulting would be better served by starting something (perhaps an actual business) outside of the usual SV-backed app startup sector.

This is subject to change, but I'm currently a much bigger fan of the Mark Cuban sales-oriented bootstrap style entrepreneurship than I am of app roulette. AirBNB gets touted a lot nowadays, but the founders sought out to build a profitable business from day one. And they're not Stanford CS dropouts, they're graduated designers from a no name school.

 

^^Agreed. I don't know how you can say that there isn't prestige in tech. It may not appear to be the same because finance types tend to be on average more "douchy" and tech types more "nerdy", but that doesn't mean that it isn't there. I recently graduated and I know a few kids who chose positions at Google and Microsoft over roles at less-known companies where they would have been doing more impressive and interesting (at least to them) work. Instead they chose the better known names because it looked better on their resumes, was more well known and respected, and would provide more opportunities down the road and something tells me this isn't exclusive to my school. If that isn't prestige than I don't know what is...

 

I did some contracting for a startup for a few months. They were funded by YC and one of my friends was one of the cofounders.

.

I studied CS in undergrad but I am heading to a quant fund upon graduation. We do have some overlap with the tech community. .

At worst, tech may create prestige, but it certainly doesn't require any. Same with any sort of geek role in finance. You are only as good as your current project. .

Back to my rusty honda. . Edit: @"WallStreetOasis.com" WSO stopped honoring paragraphs!!! This severely interferes with readability. I am replacing my extra lines with periods in protest.

 

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