If I expect to be graduating into a recession, how should I adjust my career path starting out?

You're going to have two BB summers under your belt and you're seriously worried about this?

To be honest I think this is a really good question and can actually serve a general purpose in informing other monkeys.

Rising freshman at target this fall that is nervous about this as well and interested in answer

I graduated in 2009 with majors in Finance and Real Estate. Talk about nailing it.

I accepted an unpaid internship following the summer after graduation, and tended bar up the street from my parents, where I was living, in the evenings. Following the expiration of the internship, I took another unpaid role as a Trader Trainee. Eventually landed a full time job at a commercial bank via networking. Long story short - prepare your network, because its going to be a life-saver if the economy sucks when you graduate. I did pass on a lot of sales-type roles during my search, so definitely don't take a job to take a job (unless of course you absolutely need the money), but be prepared to get creative. I preferred to be in a flexible position (unpaid roles, bartending) to have some income and be prepared to jump at a FT opportunity.

Whilst it would be a concern, I assume whether we're in a recession or boom won't change your long term career path? Therefore it makes sense to still take the same route. Admittedly it might be harder to get that full time IBD offer (or whatever) but it should still be what you aim for. That being said, certainly plan for some contingencies in case this doesn't pan out - plan alternative routes. Always be thinking 3 years ahead absolute minimum, ideally 5-10. Every job / career move you make should take you 1 step closer to the 5-10 year target.

Back in '09, the guys with oil/gas backgrounds seemed to weather the storm (someone can correct me if this is wrong). Of course, today that does not sound safe.

I was once told by an alum/the CIO of a LARGE lbo fund (one that everyone on here would recognize) that if everyone is going into XYZ area, go the opposite direction. If everybody is going to the west coast to work for software startups, go to the east coast and work for an old economy business. That sort of sentiment. Kind of a bullshit thing to say, though, and not easily applicable to real-life circumstances when you really think about it.

I graduated in 2011, so the economy was beginning to rebound by that time, but still nothing ideal. For me it came down to being geographically flexible. The city I moved to after college was a secondary market that I never really had on my radar, but I had a good job opportunity so I took it. Then 1.5 years later, used that experience to jump to a job in a primary market (again, another city that if you asked me in 2011 I never put much thought into) and things have worked out really well, and my career hasn’t missed a beat.

So my advice is do not get too caught up working a certain job in a certain city at a certain company. Definitely aim for it, but keep an open mind.

I grad in 2006 and landed on a top BB energy trading desk... 10 years later i seen the highs and lows but i would not change a thing. if i was in your shoes - i would also not change a thing for one reason.

what you want today and think you want tomorrow could change faster than the economy.....

you are taking all the right steps and i strongly 2nd the person above who said to work on your network - you should be doing that in an up or down market.. small example - I use to grab a weekly lunch with two fellow interns during my junior summer internship - 10 years later... i started my own biz and sold, 1 is a up and coming re developer and other just made MD at the bank(investment banking) he is at. your peers are your business partners in 10, 20, 30 years.. also it was a trading internship and only i entered trading.. you just never know how life will work out

so write that business plan for your career but use a PENCIL... not for the economy to change but YOU!!!!!!!

Really good question. In addition to what others above said, I would consider some RX prep if that floats your boat.

Someone else asked a similar question a few months ago, plenty of decent responses: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/beginning-your-career-in-a-recess…

Here's my answer from that one. 1) How does a recession impact the Summer Analyst/Analyst experience? Hours will likely still be bad, but your workload will shift, so much less deal work and much more pitching, as banks and MDs become more desperate for business. On the deals you do manage to win, success rate will decrease because of the weakened financing environment, buyers become nervous/risk adverse, underlying businesses aren't as good as you weren't as picky up front, etc. This typically means lower fees, lower bonuses, etc. not to mention if you're at a BB, then anything IBD does make is likely offsetting losses in other departments (e.g. S&T). If you're at a spot with a good restructuring practice, you're hedged against a downturn.

2) How does a recession impact advancement within the bank to Associate and exits to PE? The hardest part during a downturn is getting the initial foot in the door vs. advancement. During a recession there may be a few less associate spots to move into, but banks will always need analysts and associates to do the grunt work, and with the banks now starting to favor A2A promotes vs. MBAs, I'd be far more worried about getting into a bank vs. moving up within one. The real worry during a recession is at the VP level, as that's the first level to get culled, as they cost the most of any non-revenue generating employee, and an SVP/Director combined with any good associate can run the day-to-day of a deal.

PE is a different story. It's a much smaller field at the junior level, and funds always need associates for portfolio monitoring (which becomes a real issue during a recession), add-ons, etc. regardless of whether or not new deal flow drops off. It's also far more stable than banking as instead of relying on advisory fees, you're getting your 2% on committed capital to keep the lights on and keep everyone paid, so while some funds may hire 1-2 less associates per year when deal flow falls off a cliff, it's never going to be as bad as banking.

3) Does a recession, and likely smaller Analyst classes, create opportunities to more rapidly advance in IBD or PE to senior levels? It won't necessarily speed up advancement, but it will provide more opportunities down the road. Graduating in 2008/2009, the hardest part was getting the initial foot in the door. There were hiring freezes at most places across the street, and the banks that were taking on new analysts had drastically reduced their class sizes, and so really only the top candidates could break into the top banks and groups. However, fast forward a few years and suddenly there was a supply constraint for associates as there were now far fewer experienced analysts on the street than normal to direct promote, and other candidates (e.g. MBAs) had become disillusioned with banking after the recession and went into other fields (e.g. tech). Those that got in the door ended up seeing associate roles from almost every BB, elite boutique, and MM shop out there over the past couple of years.

You should become an accountant

You have the potential to be a good investor, if you are already thinking about where you are in a business cycle. I wish I had that kind of thinking when I were you age.

In addition to cyclicality, I would also think about some long-term trends that are changing the financial industry. IB will be around as long as companies need to raise money and same goes for some form of Asset Management because not everyone is Warren Buffet, but if you are a little forward-looking, the Fintech space offers a lot of interesting paths that can prove to be revolutionary down the road (payment and personal lending come to my mind for now).

Go into RX instead of M&A. It's counter cyclical so business will be booming during a recession and you get what some on this board would argue is a better experience.

I graduated in 2009...ended up working in operations, then going to business school. Sucked at the time, but was a blessing in disguise.