Jasmine Revolution?

So with all of the events going on in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Jordan, Bahrain, and potentially Saudi Arabia, some have also pointed to the growing calls of revolution in China, a movement better known as the "Jasmine Revolution"

Curious if anyone on these boards is currently working/living in China or knows several people over there. Is this movement a legitimate movement from disenfranchised and unhappy Chinese people or it this a fringe movement that is being overblown by the international media?

Reports have been thrown out there that an overwhelming majority of Chinese residents are happy with the direction of the government and their increasing prosperity and many in fact are also content with being ruled under an authoritarian government.

 

I think many Chinese are complacent under the current regime. One of my Chinese friends (who reads this site and knows my SN...hope you read this) is under the impression that China's recent expansion in economic power would have not been possible w/o the authoritarian government. IMHO this is complete BS. But it does give a good insight into how people who have a sense of national identity feel about the regime. aka It sucks that we are oppressed, but it could get worse if we throw off the shackles. ...And I wonder why there has never been a true democratic government in China or most of the SE Asian countries...complacency.

Reality hits you hard, bro...
 
MMBinNC:
One of my Chinese friends (who reads this site and knows my SN...hope you read this) is under the impression that China's recent expansion in economic power would have not been possible w/o the authoritarian government. IMHO this is complete BS. But it does give a good insight into how people who have a sense of national identity feel about the regime. aka It sucks that we are oppressed, but it could get worse if we throw off the shackles.

This is typical nonsense that is drilled into their heads everyday, it's also the number one recurring theme on TV since the 1990's. If you dig deep enough you will eventually find a few Chinese that have a deeper, more mature view on the subject.

 
Best Response
rebelcross:
MMBinNC:
One of my Chinese friends (who reads this site and knows my SN...hope you read this) is under the impression that China's recent expansion in economic power would have not been possible w/o the authoritarian government. IMHO this is complete BS. But it does give a good insight into how people who have a sense of national identity feel about the regime. aka It sucks that we are oppressed, but it could get worse if we throw off the shackles.

This is typical nonsense that is drilled into their heads everyday, it's also the number one recurring theme on TV since the 1990's. If you dig deep enough you will eventually find a few Chinese that have a deeper, more mature view on the subject.

You are correct, a few, but the above logic is the case there. My uncle was a missionary in China, and he was shocked at 1. How totally subservient the average person was [publicly at least] 2. How brutal punishment was for dissenters

Chinese history points to beaurocratic gridlock at the top end and the resulting chaos as ushering in periods of change, and we're not there yet. I'm thinking in another decade +/-

Saudi Arabia will be pressured to change by external forces, and the royals there are a bit more world wise, so they have already begun making concessions. They are more likely to end up with a constitutional monarchy similar to UK.

Get busy living
 

I just wrote a paper examining social networking websites, and found out that they are blocked in many parts of china as a reaction to their assistance in organizing riots.

If you examine the cause of the rev in north africa and mid east you know that the same is not gonna happen in China. Imo its not gonna happen in Saudi Arabia either.

 
<span class=keyword_link><a href=/company/sac-capital target=_blank>SAC</a></span>:
If its not broke, why fix it ?
Pretty much. Attempting to destabilize China would only cause them to pull together and dig in - there's nothing to be gained from such an endeavor. There are much more pressing matters, such as the Middle East. The logic driving dictatorships tends to break down once a period of stability comes along: there's no justification for the heavily militarized way of life. At this point, even the 'Jasmine' protests are giving the government justification to crack down [but they have my sympathy]

The Chinese will continue to import western technology but at some point their political structure will prove itself too rigid to effectively manage what they've set in motion. That is when the fractures will appear. Add to that the legion of smart, upwardly mobile, YOUNG kids they've sent here to be educated who will at some point look around and think: WOW, I totally hate the fact that I know how to run all this better than the wise old masters.....

Get busy living
 
UFOinsider:
<span class=keyword_link><a href=/company/sac-capital target=_blank>SAC</a></span>:
If its not broke, why fix it ?
The Chinese will continue to import western technology but at some point their political structure will prove itself too rigid to effectively manage what they've set in motion. That is when the fractures will appear. Add to that the legion of smart, upwardly mobile, YOUNG kids they've sent here to be educated who will at some point look around and think: WOW, I totally hate the fact that I know how to run all this better than the wise old masters.....

But who are the legion of smart, upwardly mobile, young kids? There's a certain sampling problem. The students who can afford to come to the United States would generally not be from families hostile to the Communist Party; their families have succeeded financially under the current regime. The Communist Party has done an excellent job of co-opting most of the educated classes in its programs; I doubt there will be the likes of a Zhou Enlai in the legions of returning students.

At the same time, not EVERYONE is doing well in China. That's a false impression a lot of people might have. For all the economic development in the last few decades, it's hard to keep in mind that life hasn't really changed for over 500 million people in the rural inland provinces. The coastal provinces and a few others might be huge beacons of economic development of modernity, but the incessant flow of migrant workers into those areas should tell you that the coastal provinces are the exception rather than the norm.

 

The cultural and historical dynamics are completely different in China. The Chinese Communist Party was founded as a party FOR the people. Also, keep in mind that China, throughout it's 5000 year history, has never experienced a true democratic system of government. They didn't read Rousseau, Hobbes, Locke, or Adam Smith who advocated for free-market reforms and democratic liberalism. They read Confucius, who taught the Chinese to be docile and community oriented. Therefore, the mindset of the average Chinese person is COMPLETELY different than the mentality in the west and even the middle-east. Remember, for more than 5000 years of history, China has only truly been exposed to the Western world for the past 200, and for most of history, China was much more wealthy than any country in the west (under imperial rule).

Why would an uprising NEVER happen in modern China, or at least in the next 30-50 years? Because everyone is doing so well. The numbers and progress made under the CCP really speak for themselves. I remember when my parents immigrated from China 20 years ago - it was a bicycle army, NO ONE had a car. Go back today to my hometown, and you see BMW's, Porsche's, Audi's everywhere. And despite whatever western media is peddling nowadays, the furthest thing from the average Chinese' minds is whether or not they can post a status updated on Facebook or Twitter. They're too busy enjoying their newfound wealth.

No one wants to rock the boat, and no one will rock the boat. Also, people talk about the CCP like they're a bunch of dumbasses. That is far from the case. Whereas in the US, we have community organizers and former movie stars being elected President, in China, only the most capable are promoted to the highest ranks of government. Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, and Xi Jinping all at one point or another started from the lowest ranks of government (rural villages), and all worked their way up through an intensely competitive process. All of them are extremely intelligent and capable - and you know all those "fobby" chinese kids you see at Ivy league universities? A lot of them are going back to China to join government think-tanks. The Chinese government has access to everything it needs to know about how other political systems work, and adapts its own system to incorporate the merits of other systems.

No one can predict the future of China - but, it is entirely conceivable that within 30 years, the average upper-middle class Chinese will live better off and have better infrastructure access than the average upper-class American.

 

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People like Coldplay and voted for the Nazis, you can't trust people Jeremy

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