Market Crash - Brushing off job data

What the hell is going on guys?!?! They're just brushing off job data, and if S&P downgrades US, another freaking selloff.

All the news media are on bay street - they're probably looking for people jumping off the roof!

 

The job data didn't mean much. It doesn't count people who are out of work but no longer looking (the 'government cheese' set). It was barely a beat on expectations using rigged data. I mean if it has missed that would have been worse, but a tiny beat wasn't going to do much.

Eurodebt, global secular growth slowing. These are the bigguns on the table.

 

It's not really a crash or a panic until you lose 30% in a single week.

This is a mere correction. It's also very good news for savers under age 45. The cheaper stocks get, the higher dividend yields get, the more money you kids are going to have in 20-30 years.

Wait for P/Es in France, Italy, and Spain to hit 7-8. Then it's time to start picking up cheap, well-capitalized companies with strong dividends that sell into an international market. If they are paying 5-10% dividends, that's just icing on the cake.

 

Volatility is a normal part of this business. Dow was down 200 just an hour ago; now it's up 100. When people are frightened, they don't think rationally. And the people with cooler heads will prevail.

Metal. Music. Life. www.headofmetal.com
 

I was having a conversation yesterday with my mate in Australia yesterday who probably puts the D in doom merchant at the moment...

This though was a 'gem' of a paragraph from him.

It went...

When European countries begin to collapse, the forces of human nature and capital markets will take over. Greed won’t go away, it’ll accelerate and eat its own arse right up to its own ears before it dies. First, the rich and wealthy will flee the dying states, to their islands, their super-yacht's, their hidey-holes, gouging their money out of everywhere and anywhere, and hording it in gold, oil, harems, or other such convertible securities. Eventually, when say Greece is little more than a discarded piece of toilet paper (possibly by close of business Tuesday), some wealthy oligarth will eventually decide to buy the country, privatise it, and run it like a sweatshop, thereby restoring peace and competing against China. They will do this by legal slavery (aka ‘hiring through scumbag recruitment agencies’) and effectively , the capitalist market will turn itself into a communocapitalist shoppingcentre, where the citizens are no longer nationals, they are ‘kaisha-in’ (japanesey for ‘company people, for life’)

Made me smile , and believe you me...I haven't had a lot of chances to do that recently.

 
GloballyRelaxed:

It went...

When European countries begin to collapse, the forces of human nature and capital markets will take over. Greed won’t go away, it’ll accelerate and eat its own arse right up to its own ears before it dies. First, the rich and wealthy will flee the dying states, to their islands, their super-yacht's, their hidey-holes, gouging their money out of everywhere and anywhere, and hording it in gold, oil, harems, or other such convertible securities. Eventually, when say Greece is little more than a discarded piece of toilet paper (possibly by close of business Tuesday), some wealthy oligarth will eventually decide to buy the country, privatise it, and run it like a sweatshop, thereby restoring peace and competing against China. They will do this by legal slavery (aka ‘hiring through scumbag recruitment agencies’) and effectively , the capitalist market will turn itself into a communocapitalist shoppingcentre, where the citizens are no longer nationals, they are ‘kaisha-in’ (japanesey for ‘company people, for life’)

Made me smile , and believe you me...I haven't had a lot of chances to do that recently.

Why did it make you smile?

 
GloballyRelaxed:
I was having a conversation yesterday with my mate in Australia yesterday who probably puts the D in doom merchant at the moment...

This though was a 'gem' of a paragraph from him.

It went...

When European countries begin to collapse, the forces of human nature and capital markets will take over. Greed won’t go away, it’ll accelerate and eat its own arse right up to its own ears before it dies. First, the rich and wealthy will flee the dying states, to their islands, their super-yacht's, their hidey-holes, gouging their money out of everywhere and anywhere, and hording it in gold, oil, harems, or other such convertible securities. Eventually, when say Greece is little more than a discarded piece of toilet paper (possibly by close of business Tuesday), some wealthy oligarth will eventually decide to buy the country, privatise it, and run it like a sweatshop, thereby restoring peace and competing against China. They will do this by legal slavery (aka ‘hiring through scumbag recruitment agencies’) and effectively , the capitalist market will turn itself into a communocapitalist shoppingcentre, where the citizens are no longer nationals, they are ‘kaisha-in’ (japanesey for ‘company people, for life’)

Made me smile , and believe you me...I haven't had a lot of chances to do that recently.

Interesting. I'm sure that will go over very well with the people who were firebombing banks earlier this year and the thug beating immigrants now. Importing security is expensive, look at what we pay in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 
Best Response
GloballyRelaxed:
I was having a conversation yesterday with my mate in Australia yesterday who probably puts the D in doom merchant at the moment...

This though was a 'gem' of a paragraph from him.

It went...

When European countries begin to collapse, the forces of human nature and capital markets will take over. Greed won’t go away, it’ll accelerate and eat its own arse right up to its own ears before it dies. First, the rich and wealthy will flee the dying states, to their islands, their super-yacht's, their hidey-holes, gouging their money out of everywhere and anywhere, and hording it in gold, oil, harems, or other such convertible securities. Eventually, when say Greece is little more than a discarded piece of toilet paper (possibly by close of business Tuesday), some wealthy oligarth will eventually decide to buy the country, privatise it, and run it like a sweatshop, thereby restoring peace and competing against China. They will do this by legal slavery (aka ‘hiring through scumbag recruitment agencies’) and effectively , the capitalist market will turn itself into a communocapitalist shoppingcentre, where the citizens are no longer nationals, they are ‘kaisha-in’ (japanesey for ‘company people, for life’)

Made me smile , and believe you me...I haven't had a lot of chances to do that recently.

Doubtful. Populism always finds a way to take precedence over assets. And right now, if there were a rich and powerful group of people to blame for the world's travails like they did in the French Revolution or in Germany, who do you think it would be? Your friend is going to be one of the first with his head at the Guillotine. Don't worry, we'll probably all be in line behind him.

 

We're finally trading a valuations that are realistic. To me it's a breath of fresh air. All this Quantitive Easing & 'shakeoffs' had a lot of investors really believing we were coming out of recession. The truth is that we're really not that far from where we were a year ago. It just so happends that instead of gradually correcting, we had a snap back due to a lot of negative current news ATM..

 

12.5x Earnings on the S&P ain't cheap- at least relative to 2009, but it's not expensive either.

Long-term secular bear cycles tend to end with the S&P around 7-9 x earnings, but if we follow the 35-year valuation cycle, we've still got at least 4-7 years of dividends, inflation, and (yes, meager, but still) economic growth until we hit bottom. This could very well be a good buying opportunity. At the very least, there have been much worse times to buy

In particular, there's some nice dividend-paying tech stocks out there. Europe also looks pretty darned cheap.

 

I think he was very much being tongue in cheek when he made those comments , I only reposted them here as they were so left-field and made me smile with the outlandish view.

I kind of realise though that most of us here have been bombarded with every man and his dogs comments and thoughts about what is happening and what will happen that even the most outlandish of views , even when made in jest, suddenly can become a tad plausible and rational.

Stay lucky gents and good luck.

 
GloballyRelaxed:
I think he was very much being tongue in cheek when he made those comments , I only reposted them here as they were so left-field and made me smile with the outlandish view.

I kind of realise though that most of us here have been bombarded with every man and his dogs comments and thoughts about what is happening and what will happen that even the most outlandish of views , even when made in jest, suddenly can become a tad plausible and rational.

Stay lucky gents and good luck.

Please stop tiptoeing away from your troll. Admit it; you wanted to post something outlandish and awful and catch folks' reactions. And our reaction is probably going to be to look up your IP address and call our friends at the Hague.
 

Molestiae facere placeat expedita quia maiores exercitationem fugit. Dolor blanditiis blanditiis nam veritatis. Sit sunt cumque laborum reiciendis. Cum sed sit reprehenderit natus exercitationem.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (145) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
3
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
6
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
7
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
8
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
9
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”