Morgan Stanley- Buy or Bust?
It's obvious that many BB bank stocks have taken double-digit declines since the start of 2011. The banks are downsizing, deleveraging, selling off unprofitable assets, and raising capital, which explains why earnings haven't been impressive. Gone are some of the toxic investments made during the real estate bubble. The Volcker Rule will place a significant amount of restrictions on banks and will abolish most prop trading.
Morgan Stanley traded below book value throughout all of 2011. It took a hit on fears of its potentially high European debt exposure. It turns out that they had no more than 3.6% of exposure to five troubled countries-- Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. However, investors remain skeptical about CEO James Gorman's ability to restore confidence. Citi has stated it wants to sell its stake of the joint venture MS Smith Barney, and Morgan Stanley has made clear it wants to own it outright. Morgan Stanley seems to be doing much better than its stock, but the only thing that seems to convince investors is earnings.
Morgan Stanley Revenue
2006...................................2011
13%.........Discover cc...........0%
8%...........Asset Mgmt..........6%
14%.....Investment Banking...13%
29%........FICC** Trading.......19%
20%.....Equities Trading........21%
16%........Wealth Mgmt.........41%
So with Morgan Stanley headed toward retail banking, do you think it's a safe investment?
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