My Beloved New York City

The men who made this town the center of the universe, culture, finance, and capitalism are weeping in their graves!

I weep at the thought of Bill de freakin' Blasio leading my beloved town!

I am only 21, or I would have run for mayor. We cannot let this catastrophe occur!

I am worried as Hell that Rudy and Mike's tremendous progress will be reverted.

De Blasio is a lunatic with no economic understanding. He wants to raise taxes so everyone can attend pre-K for crying out loud!

 

So DeBlasio wants to create another income tax bracket at $500k+. This isn't that much worse than the current situation giving the already very high tax rates in NYC. Thou the universal pre-schooling rationale is rather ludicrous and can easily lead to a slippery slope. I am more worried about what Cuomo might do at the state level, that is where the really big increases in marginal rates would come in. In any case NV is looking more attractive every day:

No state income tax, check year round warm weather with no humidity, check no open container law/ability to drink freely or take drinks out of bars, check

Plus CA is only an hour away.

Too late for second-guessing Too late to go back to sleep.
 

My biggest fear is that more New Yorkers will come to Northern Virginia looking for an escape from high taxation and economic malaise only to vote for the same assholes who f*cked up their state. Case in point--Terry McAuliffe.

 

The New Yorkers are invading everywhere. Can't tell you how many I met that moved out to Denver. Probably a quarter of them are cool, the rest just bitch about it and talk about how great NYC is.

"You stop being an asshole when it sucks to be you." -IlliniProgrammer "Your grammar made me wish I'd been aborted." -happypantsmcgee
 

I'm not in NYC, but I've followed this race.

I assumed that when de Blasio pulled ahead in the primary, it was a lock for Lhota. The Democrat equivalent of Santorum winning a primary...

But then I saw that de Blasio was ahead 65% to 22% among likely voters. WTF New York?! He is literally a communist sympathizer. How is this ok? He can't even deliver on his promise to raise taxes - that has to go through the state, and Cuomo won't budge.

 
West Coast rainmaker:

I'm not in NYC, but I've followed this race.

I assumed that when de Blasio pulled ahead in the primary, it was a lock for Lhota. The Democrat equivalent of Santorum winning a primary...

But then I saw that de Blasio was ahead 65% to 22% among likely voters. WTF New York?! He is literally a communist sympathizer. How is this ok? He can't even deliver on his promise to raise taxes - that has to go through the state, and Cuomo won't budge.

I'm going to deliver some shocking news to you: NYC is a town full of Democrats.
 
Best Response

But I assumed these were sane Democrats e.g. the Bill Clinton variety. This is well beyond what I would expect even in San Francisco - Berkeley, maybe.

This is a man that honeymooned in Cuba and aided socialist revolutionaries in Nicaragua. Democrat or Republican, have people forgotten that we spent most of the 20th century fighting communism / socialism? And these were not European "democratic socialists" - these Nicaraguans were nationalizing private entities.

...New Yorkers must realize that the financial industry is the only way the city functions, right? It's not like the fashion industry is generating enough tax revenue to keep the MTA running and school running. And law firms are only in NY due to all the financial activity.

Playing class warfare is not smart. Connecticut is more than happy offer incentives for companies to relocate to Stamford. And that's assuming you have to stay in the North East. I could easily see some firms relocating to Florida / TX.

 

de Blasio is going to be a boon for NYC's regional competitors. He's not going to destroy NYC over night, but if he's successful at implementing his ideology, he'll incrementally push the financial industry out of NYC and into surrounding geographies. Over time, he'll erode the wealth of NYC if he's successful, and he'll turn many other people off with his Chicago-like police department (a totally ineffective one). It's too bad many NYC voters don't remember NYC prior to Rudy Giuliani--it was the armpit of America.

 

I'm scared as well. NYC before Rudy was an absolute nightmare where women would get raped in broad daylight. Most parts of Manhattan were actually unlivable due to the high crime. I'm less worried about crime than I am about DeBlasio's socialist economic policies and how that will affect the financial sector. The top tax rate in NYC is already around 50%, and once it goes above that I predict people will start fleeing in droves.

I'm not sure though which cities can overtake NYC as the financial capital since the city has been the center of finance for such a long time.

 

why are you guys pissing yourselves over a mayoral election? mayors don't wield anywhere near the kind of power and influence many of you seem to believe.

"job creators"/corporations will relocate the way alec baldwin moved to canada after george bush was elected. bill de blasio will come and go and new york will hardly notice the difference. exodus to virginia and florida? what a fucking joke.

 
DoubleBottomLine:

why are you guys pissing yourselves over a mayoral election? mayors don't wield anywhere near the kind of power and influence many of you seem to believe.

"job creators"/corporations will relocate the way alec baldwin moved to canada after george bush was elected. bill de blasio will come and go and new york will hardly notice the difference. exodus to virginia and florida? what a fucking joke.

Are you kidding? There's been a 20-year exodus from the Northeast and California to the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and western states. Do you really live in such a bubble that you don't realize that people in the U.S. have absolute geographic freedom and have been using this freedom a lot? NYC lost $46 billion in taxable income between 2000 and 2010 and $79 billion between 1993 and 2010 (due to net migration), and the high tax states of California and Illinois lost $29 and $20 billion, respectively, in taxable income between 2000 and 2010.

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/monday-map-migration-personal-income

Also, do you really not think the NYC mayor has a lot of power? Ask NYC residents who lived in NYC during the pre-Giuliani years if the NYC mayor has no power. Giuliani single handedly cleaned up the mess that NYC was.

 
DCDepository:
Giuliani single handedly cleaned up the mess that NYC was.
Incorrect. His 'broken window theory' put into practice was started when crime rates were plummeting across the nation. He was in office when good stuff would have happened anyway. What you're saying is the same thing as saying Bill Clinton was the cause of a great economy during his Presidency.

Coincidence of timing? Yes. Cause and effect? No.

 
DCDepository:
DoubleBottomLine:

why are you guys pissing yourselves over a mayoral election? mayors don't wield anywhere near the kind of power and influence many of you seem to believe.

"job creators"/corporations will relocate the way alec baldwin moved to canada after george bush was elected. bill de blasio will come and go and new york will hardly notice the difference. exodus to virginia and florida? what a fucking joke.

Are you kidding? There's been a 20-year exodus from the Northeast and California to the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and western states. Do you really live in such a bubble that you don't realize that people in the U.S. have absolute geographic freedom and have been using this freedom a lot? NYC lost $46 billion in taxable income between 2000 and 2010 and $79 billion between 1993 and 2010 (due to net migration), and the high tax states of California and Illinois lost $29 and $20 billion, respectively, in taxable income between 2000 and 2010.

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/monday-map-migration...

Also, do you really not think the NYC mayor has a lot of power? Ask NYC residents who lived in NYC during the pre-Giuliani years if the NYC mayor has no power. Giuliani single handedly cleaned up the mess that NYC was.

firstly, you keep referring to New York state as NYC. secondly, nobody makes major life decisions like moving across the country, uprooting family and changing jobs simply to save a few points on their income tax rate. the only people who really think about things like this are the ultra wealthy with massive incomes or those facing liquidity events and rest assured they aren't moving to Orlando. instead of regurgitating a couple statistics that conceal as much as they reveal, just use your head and imagine the thought processes of the various migrants.

there are many reasons why people move out of NYC: job-seekers leaving the most competitive job market for less competitive markets either voluntarily or involuntarily, more retirees than ever moving south, people leaving a high cost of living area for a lower cost of living area (keep in mind both are determined by market forces), etc. And all the while the city's economy and population are growing? yeah, i'm not too worried.

and no, i do not think the mayor of NYC has the power to turn the city's economic value proposition upside down. can you provide a concrete example of what Bill de Blasio can and will do that will tank NYC's economy triggering an exodus? your reaction suggests you expect nothing less than this outcome.

 

All this talk of an exodus from NYC is ridiculous. Who in their right mind would move to some place like Charlotte from NYC unless they were from there originally? End of the day, NYC beats those places on every metric other than cost of living, and it costs so much to live here because everyone wants to live here. U mad?

Not everyone makes their political ideology rule their lives. In fact, only a really small portion of people give that much of a shit, they just happen to be the loudest. And, unless you're making some serious dough, you're not going to be affected.

Calm down.

 

LOL basically. Deblasio has already said that going after banks is pointless and that encouraging job creation is going to do more for the poor than charity. My guess is that he'll basically offer support to anything that benefits the middle income workers of NYC (aka $30K -> $300K)

The GOP wants to keep encouraging the building of concept projects and tourist traps but the fact is that those things are already overbuilt.

Get busy living
 
DCDepository:

Who in their right mind? $46 billion in net income migration between 2000 and 2010. Obviously the overwhelming expense of NYC is turning a lot of people off.

The problem with this story of net income migration is that perhaps 100K college kids move here every year and get $70K-120K jobs.

They then leave after 5-10 years. Not because NYC taxes them too much but because all of these fricking college-aged kids are moving there every year and are willing to take a 200 square foot apartment for $2K/month and it's a lot cheaper to raise children in the suburbs.

Honestly, I'm surprised that the Yuppie Factory is only producing $4.5 Billion/year in income in late-20s Yuppies leaving for Pittsburgh and Seattle. That's only 45,000 $100K/year jobs/year, promptly filled by 22-year olds. And for NYC to produce more yuppies (higher "net migration") may actually be a good thing for NYC as well as the city. NYC becomes an even bigger magnet for young people, it draws more middle-class people funding NYC's social welfare state and paying $5K/year in social welfare benefits, paying rent to help cover property tax revenues, and providing large benefits to the city.

The term "net migration" is misleading. "Yuppie Production for the rest of the country" is more appropriate. For every Yuppie produced over 5-10 years, NYC gets about $50K in income and property tax revenues, not to mention sales tax. So for every $1 Billion of net income migration, NYC has probably collected $500 million in net tax revenues over 5-10 years. So higher net income migration figures for NYC are a very, very good thing.

The far right fiscal conservatives need to calm down about NYC's tax rates. Yes, they're high. Yes, people still tolerate them. No, the city is expensive and unlivable for parents for reasons other than liberal policies. Yes, DeBlasio's election as mayor is probably bad for the city. No, it's not a catastrophe. And yuppie production- err net income migration is a better measure of the city's health than the city's problems

 
IlliniProgrammer:
DCDepository:

Who in their right mind? $46 billion in net income migration between 2000 and 2010. Obviously the overwhelming expense of NYC is turning a lot of people off.

The problem with this story of net income migration is that perhaps 100K college kids move here every year and get $70K-120K jobs.

They then leave after 5-10 years. Not because NYC taxes them too much but because all of these fricking college-aged kids are moving there every year and are willing to take a 200 square foot apartment for $2K/month and it's a lot cheaper to raise children in the suburbs.

Honestly, I'm surprised that the Yuppie Factory is only producing $4.5 Billion/year in income in late-20s Yuppies leaving for Pittsburgh and Seattle. That's only 45,000 $100K/year jobs/year, promptly filled by 22-year olds. And for NYC to produce more yuppies (higher "net migration") may actually be a good thing for NYC as well as the city. NYC becomes an even bigger magnet for young people, it draws more middle-class people funding NYC's social welfare state and paying $5K/year in social welfare benefits, paying rent to help cover property tax revenues, and providing large benefits to the city.

The term "net migration" is misleading. "Yuppie Production for the rest of the country" is more appropriate. For every Yuppie produced over 5-10 years, NYC gets about $50K in income and property tax revenues, not to mention sales tax. So for every $1 Billion of net income migration, NYC has probably collected $500 million in net tax revenues over 5-10 years. So higher net income migration figures for NYC are a very, very good thing.

The far right fiscal conservatives need to calm down about NYC's tax rates. Yes, they're high. Yes, people still tolerate them. No, the city is expensive and unlivable for parents for reasons other than liberal policies. Yes, DeBlasio's election as mayor is probably bad for the city. No, it's not a catastrophe. And yuppie production- err net income migration is a better measure of the city's health than the city's problems

Is this post serious? So California, New York and Illinois, all left wing bastions with high tax rates and terrible governance, just so happen to have the worst net income migration in the country the last 20 years? To you this is a positive thing and just, ya know, coincidence? Do you really believe half the things you say?

 

Some comments here are showing obvious city ignorance and bias. By this I mean people who live in the city living in a state of denial that their beloved city is not an invincible fortress they believe it to be.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne
 

I think I've had discussions like this with DCDepository before. He never gives up. He could argue for hours and hours that Dallas is a healthier place to live than New York City despite being shown facts to the contrary.

He could argue for hours and hours that we've had 40% inflation for the past 5 years if someone out there in the loony bin was able to substantiate it.

He could argue anything and never give up.

So we can listen to DC Depository all we want about why 25-35 year old yuppies have been leaving NYC for the past seven decades while the proportion of that age group has gone unchanged, or we can listen to a group of NYC Yuppies explain that income migrates out of NYC when it wants to have kids or when it has gotten the boost it wanted for its career.

An improvement in the tax situation in NYC might help keep yuppies a little longer, but this pattern of "hit NYC for 5-10 years, then go somewhere else and settle down" has been around since our ancestors arrived at Ellis Island over 100 years ago.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

I think I've had discussions like this with DCDepository before. He never gives up. He could argue for hours and hours that Dallas is a healthier place to live than New York City despite being shown facts to the contrary.

He could argue for hours and hours that we've had 40% inflation for the past 5 years if someone out there in the loony bin was able to substantiate it.

He could argue anything and never give up.

So we can listen to DC Depository all we want about why 25-35 year old yuppies have been leaving NYC for the past seven decades while the proportion of that age group has gone unchanged, or we can listen to a group of Yuppies explain that income migrates out of NYC when it wants to have kids or when it has gotten the boost it wanted for its career.

You have zero facts to back up your side. You have a theory about "yuppies". That's it. I have facts that show that a net $79 billion in taxable income walked from the state of NY between 1993 and 2010.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

But the problem DCDepository is that non-income keeps migrating into NYC, keeps becoming income, and then migrates out.

This economic has been around since your ancestors and my ancestors worked in NYC for 5-10 years before moving to Iowa to claim their 40-acre farm.

Right, so I guess that coincidentally just happens to be going on in Illinois and California, too? People move to Illinois when they're 22 and then leave for Booneville, MO when they're 30 to pursue private equity jobs in local farming communities? Right.

 

I think what I need to do here is create an autoresponder for DCDepository that comes up with random quotes from Obama for him to respond to and call garbage. This is basically what DCDepository does.

I have facts that show that a net $79 billion in taxable income walked from the state of NY between 1993 and 2010.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-12.pdf

See table 5. NYC somehow manages to attract all of these young single college educated people. Then, as suggested by Figure 1, they get married, have kids and move to the suburbs.

Really, this isn't that complicated.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

I think what I need to do here is create an autoresponder for DCDepository that comes up with random quotes from Obama for him to respond to and call garbage. This is basically what DCDepository does.

I have facts that show that a net $79 billion in taxable income walked from the state of NY between 1993 and 2010.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-12.pdf

See table 5. NYC somehow manages to attract all of these young single college educated people. Then, as suggested by Figure 1, they get married, have kids and move to the suburbs.

Really, this isn't that complicated.

How do you explain a population loss of 1.6 million people through net migration in the last decade? For your theory to hold--which it clearly doesn't--New York should have replaced its lost residents with younger residents seeking out work. The State of New York did not--they lost 1.6 million people. Your theory can't explain that away. The logical conclusion is that the state of New York is not a desirable place for people to move to for opportunity.

 

For your ridiculous theory to hold up means that states like New York, Illinois and California have not been losing population to net migration, but that isn't true. Between 2000 and 2010, New York lost a net 1.6 million residents and has lost 7.3 million net since 1960.

So New York lost 1.6 million residents and $46 billion in net taxable income between 2000 and 2010. Explain that one away with one of your yuppie theories. You can't because the math doesn't work!

http://www.empirecenter.org/pb/2011/08/migration1080311.cfm

And you still haven't addressed California or Illinois.

 
DCDepository:
And you still haven't addressed California or Illinois.
This is a post about NY. He has the yuppie theory of NYC, which is actually pretty reasonable if you know anything about NYC. Most people move out when they have kids because having kids in NYC is such a terrible idea for most people. Why should he have to respond to something about IL or CA or RI or any other random state?

By the way, have you ever considered anger management classes?

 
DickFuld:
DCDepository:

And you still haven't addressed California or Illinois.

This is a post about NY. He has the yuppie theory of NYC, which is actually pretty reasonable if you know anything about NYC. Most people move out when they have kids because having kids in NYC is such a terrible idea for most people. Why should he have to respond to something about IL or CA or RI or any other random state?

By the way, have you ever considered anger management classes?

Because the states of New York, Illinois and Chicago all lead the pack in lost population and net taxable income losses because they all employ the same fiscal and economic policies. IlliniProgrammer is incorrectly explaining away these losses in population and income to the state as simply young people coming and going. That's simply false, and provably false. For his theory to hold, population would have been approximately replaced by net in-migration. It hasn't in any of those states. Those are the hard facts!

 

Again, the census report I posted also supports that. Net in-migration by Young, Single, College educated from 1995-2000 according to this 2003 study to both Chicago (Chicago metropolitan area dominates IL population). The net inmigration of recent college graduates is even larger for SF and LA in this study.

Yes, it's a bit old, but it's also completely within your sample period of 1993-2010, and I can't find a similar newer study.

You'd think that with the loss of $80 billion in income (probably from people in their '30s), NYC would be screwed. But these people simply get replaced by new young, single, college educated kids who also go through the Yuppie Factory.

I wouldn't worry about NYC. This has always been the model. You look like a 10 year old kid with a bowtie arguing that finished product leaving the factory is a sign of NYC's weakness rather than health.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

Again, the census report I posted also supports that. Net in-migration by Young, Single, College educated from 1995-2000 according to this 2003 study to both Chicago (Chicago metropolitan area dominates IL population). The net inmigration of recent college graduates is even larger for SF and LA in this study.

Yes, it's a bit old, but it's also completely within your sample period of 1993-2010, and I can't find a similar newer study.

You'd think that with the loss of $80 billion in income (probably from people in their '30s), NYC would be screwed. But these people simply get replaced by new young, single, college educated kids who also go through the Yuppie Factory.

I wouldn't worry about NYC. This has always been the model. You look like a 10 year old kid with a bowtie arguing that finished product leaving the factory is a sign of NYC's weakness rather than health.

No, you're wrong, and provably so. We are talking about the STATE of New York--not the city. The state of New York has lost 1.6 million people net and $46 billion in net taxable income in the last decade. For your theory to hold, those 1.6 million losses would have been replaced by in-migration from out of state. That didn't happen. New York state's revenue losses are clearly and provably through population loss that isn't being replaced.

 
How do you explain a population loss of 1.6 million people through net migration in the last decade? For your theory to hold--which it clearly doesn't--New York should have replaced its lost residents with younger residents seeking out work. The State of New York did not--they lost 1.6 million people. Your theory can't explain that away. The logical conclusion is that the state of New York is not a desirable place for people to move to for opportunity.
NYC's GDP has never been higher. I don't think NYC really cares so long as its gross metropolitan product is up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP

Upstate also hasn't been doing as well as downstate.

 

This thread is about NYC and its new kooky mayor, not New York State. If you're asking me to comment on the parts of NY State that aren't in NYC, you're kinda off-topic.

Look, you wouldn't like it if a socialist showed up in your thread about Dagny Taggart to talk about how US infrastructure was crumbling and we needed to repair the interstate highway system even if railroads like Taggart Transcontinental were doing just fine.

 
IlliniProgrammer:

This thread is about NYC and its new kooky mayor, not New York State. If you're asking me to comment on the parts of NY State that aren't in NYC, you're off-topic.

The topic was NYC, but I'm pointing out the fact that New York State is a complete fiscal and demographic mess, and it's flagship, anchor city has not been helping it. The state employs the same backward fiscal and economic policies as the People's Republics of Illinois and California and as a consequence they are all fiscal basketcases.

And yes, a left wing NYC mayor will exacerbate this problem.

 
DCDepository:
IlliniProgrammer:

This thread is about NYC and its new kooky mayor, not New York State. If you're asking me to comment on the parts of NY State that aren't in NYC, you're off-topic.

The topic was NYC, but I'm pointing out the fact that New York State is a complete fiscal and demographic mess, and it's flagship, anchor city has not been helping it. The state employs the same backward fiscal and economic policies as the People's Republics of Illinois and California and as a consequence they are all fiscal basketcases.

And yes, a left wing NYC mayor will exacerbate this problem.

But liberal NYC is doing just fine. And this thread is about NYC. You were trying to make a point about NYC by citing data for NY State, and that data got refuted. So you're now trying to make this about NY State, but that's now off topic.
 
DCDepository:
IlliniProgrammer:

This thread is about NYC and its new kooky mayor, not New York State. If you're asking me to comment on the parts of NY State that aren't in NYC, you're off-topic.

The topic was NYC, but I'm pointing out the fact that New York State is a complete fiscal and demographic mess, and it's flagship, anchor city has not been helping it. The state employs the same backward fiscal and economic policies as the People's Republics of Illinois and California and as a consequence they are all fiscal basketcases.

And yes, a left wing NYC mayor will exacerbate this problem.

A mayor is not a dictator. They just don't have that much power. When you stop pretending they do, your blood pressure should fall to relatively normal levels.
 
DCDepository:

NYC had pretty high net out migration in the 2000 to 2010 years as well. They aren't exactly tearing it up.

Sure. Some of this can be explained by the financial crisis or the dot com bubble. I'd like to see data from 2000 to 2007 or 2003 to 2010.

Data from 2003 to 2007 would skew this in my favor; data from 2000 to 2010 skews this in your favor. So the fairest way to do it is to look cycle to cycle.

Sorry but the best indicator for the health of NYC is its G.M.P., and that's also been going up.

 
IlliniProgrammer:
DCDepository:

NYC had pretty high net out migration in the 2000 to 2010 years as well. They aren't exactly tearing it up.

Sure. Some of this can be explained by the financial crisis or the dot com bubble. I'd like to see data from 2000 to 2007 or 2003 to 2010.

Data from 2003 to 2007 would skew this in my favor; data from 2000 to 2010 skews this in your favor. So the fairest way to do it is to look cycle to cycle.

Sorry but the best indicator for the health of NYC is its G.M.P., and that's also been going up.

Maybe if you picked out 4 years somewhere. I could pick out decades going back to at least the 1970s to show net out migration.

BTW, NYC council is 46-4 Democrat. If you don't think de Blasio is going to be a problem for the city with unchecked power, think again.

 

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