NFL MVP Watch: Can Anyone Stop Aaron Rodgers?
While other sites and analyses may look at standard statistics like yards per carry and completion percentages to determine the best player in the league - the MVP - we like to dig a little deeper here at numberFire. We like to use our favorite metric, Net Expected Points (NEP) , and its position-specific variations.
Since common numbers such as yards, completions, and touchdowns don't tell the whole story about a player, we can use NEP to see who is truly separating himself from the pack and adding value to his team.
Because this advanced metric alters depending on the position being analyzed, we'll look at each of the skill positions individually through the first 14 weeks of the season to determine the most valuable player at each position. You will see higher NEP values for quarterbacks and receivers than for running backs due to the nature of their production.
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After his poor performance yesterday, Aaron Rodgers pretty much confirmed he will not win the MVP. I'd really like MVP this year to be a player no one would really expect, yet is more than deserving of it. If it were up to me, I'd be looking at: JJ Watt, Tom Brady, Demaryius Thomas, Demarco Murray, or Leveon Bell. Carson Palmer as comeback player of the year, Connor Barwin as defensive player of the year, and either CJ Anderson, Odell Beckham Jr. or Jeremy Hill for rookie of the year.
How could a bad game derail Rodgers MVP but a bad start not hurt Brady? JJ Watt is hands down the DPOY, no questions asked and he should be in the MVP talks. Demaryius Thomas? He is not even the top WR in the league this year, how about Antonio Brown. CJ Brown, ROY? No chance, OBJ, Mike Evans are probably the top two right now. Jeremy Hill is the leading rookie RB's and hell, Isaiah Crowell is on par with Anderson. Zack Martin is also having a hell of a season but I don't see an OL winning ROY. How is Palmer the come back player of the year, what did he come back from? I'd put Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jone and Jeremy Maclin as some top candidates.
I think you also have to make it through more than half of the season to be the comeback POTY. Who knows, maybe he could win it twice in a row?
The Packers won't even finish top of their division and a loss to the Bills late in the season, especially with 2 int and 0 td's is the least clutch thing any "MVP" can do. Antonio Brown has been scary good, but look at his schedule, they've only played the league's worst teams and he's cooled off a bit too. CJ Anderson has had a bigger impact on his team than OBJ has had, considering the Broncos actually win games. Palmer had an unimpressive season last year and this year led the Cards to the best record in the NFL while under center.
The Packers won't even finish top of their division and a loss to the Bills late in the season, especially with 2 int and 0 td's is the least clutch thing any "MVP" can do. Antonio Brown has been scary good, but look at his schedule, they've only played the league's worst teams and he's cooled off a bit too. CJ Anderson has had a bigger impact on his team than OBJ has had, considering the Broncos actually win games. Palmer had an unimpressive season last year and this year led the Cards to the best record in the NFL while under center.
Tony Romo, anyone?
Romo's season is, more so than other top QBs, a product of his top weapons and his o-line. Romo can't, in my opinion, carry his team on his back to the same extent that Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers can.
I wish Texans make the playoffs next week, since that could perhaps give JJ Watt a chance of winning MVP. He's been by far the most dominant player in the NFL but I don't think he will win MVP because if you take him out of the Texans they would still be a mediocre team that didn't make the playoffs. If Aaron Rodgers turn in a dominant performance and clinch the division next week I think he will get the MVP nod. If not, I'll reluctantly have to admit that Tom Brady probably deserves it given how shitty his team is (outside of Gronk).
The same can be said about Rodgers though. The best receiving pair in the NFL, top 5 RB in the league and then an A-grade line. Additionally, their defense is better than the Cowboys when it comes to personnel. Romo has had awful teams in the past, no running game, no O-line. Felix Jones at RB? Miles Austin/Roy Williams at WR? Worst defense in the league. He is the best undrafted QB since Kurt Warner and one of the best undrafted players of all time, an incredible talent.
Rodgers probably has it slightly better and I would say Rodgers is the better QB, maybe best in the game currently but Tony is beating him in QBR and a lot of other stats. Also, with the same line and weapons, people thought the Cowboys were gonna win only 5 games at the beginning of the season. Romo may not win but he definitely had a MVP type season.
JJ Watt unfortunately is going to get crushed mostly because he doesn't play QB or on offense(well he sort of does). Though he is a very valuable player without a doubt. Brady is great but the Pats are a better team in 2/3 departments of the game. Though I can see him winning.
Thought he could be candidate and he is having one of his best seasons of his career. But maybe DeMarco Murray would be the MVP of the team, he has been their workhorse and they have relied on him. A dominate O-Line and run game has allowed the cowboys to limit Romo and throw the offensive burden on him.
JJ Watt would in "best player" or "most dominate player" but I cannot see him winning the MVP. Texans with JJ Watt -- No playoffs, 21st ranked Defense
Agreed. He leads all QBs in the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. If you're going to consider Brady, you cant overlook Romo.
DeMarco Murray has a lot to do with that
Tony Romo isn't even the MVP of his own team. Ppl talking about JJ, Texans have 8 wins, will probably go 9-7, a winning record in the NFL is not mediocre, period. Also, without him Texans would probably be the Titans, not saying he should win MVP but u have to look at their record in context, they are on their 4th QB...
Murray should prob win MVP but because QB's are always the sexy pick more than likely will be Rodgers. Brady, Watt, and Russell Wilson should be in conversation as well.
lynch
Richard Sherman?
russell wilson?
p.s. did you see the stat, sherman is 1 interception short of tying record for most interceptions in first 4 years of his career.
Wilson, Brady, Rodgers...
And Wilson is looking like a winner if he's able to close this last game w/ a strong performance. (I still think Luck >>> Wilson, though)
The only thing that will hurt Romo/Murray is the fact that they play with Romo/Murray... Kinda like a "who's more important" type deal.
There is no way in holy hell JJ Watt wins MVP. Lol.
Sorry.. But a DE will not ever win in today's QB driven league. ESPECIALLY if they miss the playoffs.
And I am a fan of JJ Watt... But this league is about offense and QBs.
Luck is obviously a once in a generation kinda guy, Colts need to put a team around him instead of a bunch of plastic cups. That team is awful and Luck can only take them so far.
Though Rodgers has it in the bag I am fairly certain. And JJ Watt just happens to play on the wrong side of the ball. I hope some day he wins a ring. Looking at the Texans right now, that is hard to imagine.
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