NFL Playoffs 2017 Thread

Update 1/9: Hawks over Lions, Texans over Raiders, Packers over Giants, and Steelers over Dolphins.

Who do you guys like in the upcoming match ups?

This weekend starts us off on the NFL playoffs for 2017 with the four wildcard round games, and what an interesting weekend it will be.

We have a crippled quarterback who led his team to a dominant season (Raiders) but are likely to get beaten by the Texans who are just terrible.

Nothing good comes from Detroit and that trend will continue as the Lions have never won a wild-card game (0-8).
Second, this game is on the road. The Lions have never won a playoff game on the road in the Super Bowl era (0-10).

I am a Giants fan and am trying to be impartial but really am hoping they pull out a W over Green Bay so they can rematch the Patriots in the Super Bowl (went to school in Boston and all of my friends are Pats fans, and I despise them). However, Green Bay has been unstoppable with Aaron Rogers leading the team to a 6-0 record, 15 pass TDs, and 0 INTs in the last 6 games....

And finally an injured Tannehill makes the Dolphins about as useful as the F1 key when playing the Steelers.

Would love to get any opinions from other sports betters and people who know more than I do!

 

My predications are Steelers and Raiders (tough call against the Texans) in AFC, and then Seahawks and Packers in NFC. I could be all wrong tbh but I feel like the divisional winners currently all have better momentum against the wild card teams

 

I don't think you can be too quick to assume Patriots are going to be in the Super Bowl. I am a KC fan and native, so with my recent baseball euphoria I will try to make a case for another Midwest Miracle:

The Chiefs are 12-4, with an ugly loss to a terrible Texans team, yet they ran the table in what was arguable the most competitive division in the NFL (until Denver decided to not be competitive). Frankly, they've been a boring team to watch at times since Alex Smith is still nothing more than a game manager, and a legacy KC strength, flashy rushing, was not always on until Tyreek Hill got hot. They will not win the playoffs on Offense, but their Defense (if healthy) will bring disruption to both Pittsburgh and New England. They are best when they make turnovers happen, and getting the New England secondary back on the field unexpectedly to then face an offense that has a sudden burgeoning of pass game, could spell upset for Billy and the boys.

I think they can do it...maybe I'm just hoping they can do it...

 

That's the problem for KC, though. New England just doesn't give the ball away (their 11 giveaways tie Atlanta for lowest in the NFL). Admittedly, the Pats had a bit of a cupcake schedule with their waltz through the NFC West, but they still had to play both the Broncos and Ravens when both still wanted to be competitive (and don't forget that win in Pittsburgh).

Besides....I'm guessing there's a just a small touch of desire on Mr. Brady's part to force Roger the Terrible to pose for pictures during the Super Bowl MVP presser.

Here's how I'd BET the weekend, based on spreads today: Texans (-3.5) over Raiders Lions (+8) over Hawks -- I think Seattle wins, but they like to play close games Fish (+10...10!) over Steelers -- I'd even make a small bet the Fish win Pack (-4.5) over GMen

Next week: Pats over Texans....at whatever spread you want. Perhaps this is typical Pats Fans bravado, but if Houston is at Gillette I'd expect to see the Jimmy G. show at some point (I'd actually expect Miami to play a closer game given the AFC East rivalry) Coin flip in KC if they play Pitt; KC by a mile over Houston

Cowboys over Pack Hawks over Falcons

Super Bowl Rematch: Pats over Hawks

Director of Finance and Corporate Development: 2020 - Present Manager of FP&A and Corporate Development: 2019 - 2020 Corporate Finance, Strategy and Development: 2011 - 2019 "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
 

Given the spreads today, I think you are more or less on the money here. Where I disagree, is in the divisional, I see Packers of G-men beating Dallas. I think Dallas had an unbelievable year, but a rookie has never performed to the level they need to in the SB or playoffs even.

I do think you're right it will be a re-match between either G-Men vs Pats or Pats vs Hawks

 

went 2-2 against the spread.

My picks for this week still hold, even given current spreads (http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/ as of 12noon EST 10-Jan-2017):

Pats (-15.5) over Houston...Yes, this is a yuge spread. Yes, the Pats will cover. Write that down. Sea Pigeons (+4.5) over Falcons. Cowboys (-4.5) over Pack...though I'm feeling less confident about this one.

and the coin flip in Missourah. I'm going to take the Steelers again, but the KC defense will show up this time around (unlike week 4). Roethlesberger won't toss 5 TDs, but Alex Smith will only manage his typical 21 points on offense. I think the Steelers cover (+1.5...which is stupid, just call it heads up and be done with it).

Director of Finance and Corporate Development: 2020 - Present Manager of FP&A and Corporate Development: 2019 - 2020 Corporate Finance, Strategy and Development: 2011 - 2019 "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
 

Chill Bob, the only QBs getting embarrassed here are one's playing on Big Ten teams in the bowl games. I didn't say that game was close. We didn't look good to Houston or Pittsburgh, we also laid an absolute egg on Tennessee, and our playoff history isn't one to call home about, so a week form now could not go well regardless of who we draw.

I don't love Alex, but idk if you should love Osweiler or Savage. Chiefs have trended upwards throughout the season, I'd like to think we'd give a much better showing if we got either HOU or PIT again.

 

That is what makes the Chiefs what they are, though. There isn't a huge lineup of superstars. Mid market team on mid market payroll, you cannot have standouts, you could throw in Tony Gonzalez, but our RBS get run so hard they injure.

Anyway, KC wins because they just play their part. No one huge star, just a team that wants to win and a coach [we think] wants to win, too.

NFL playoffs are cool because it's one game and you don't get a second swing at teams...so anything can happen. Sure, Alex can crumble if HOU defense comes to play, but HOU fans HAVE to be worried with their QB potentially going up against the KC defense in Arrowhead could result in not much offense.

We obviously aren't convincing each other and won't. Enjoy the games this Saturday I'm actually wanting HOU to win because I'll never stand Oakland.

 

God damn, thank you, man! The Chiefs aren't my favorite, but they are a heavily favored team (also grew up in the Midwest; dad was raised in KC for awhile and passed along the fandom). I agree 100% with everything you say. Alex Smith is a mediocre QB at best and throws a short ball in the flat 90% of the time. The running game has honestly been one of the standouts in the league, right with the Cowboys, because they have historically had great offensive lines in the last 20 years - seriously, Willie Roaf, Brian Waters, Will Shields, Casey Wiegmann, John Tait...I'll even throw in Tony Richardson, the fullback - those guys paved the way for Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in their prime. Again, look at who blocked for Emmitt Smith; the line is full of pro bowlers, and that's when the pro bowl actually meant something rather than a popularity contest. But I do agree that the defense is where it's at with the Chiefs. They may not have the "all stars" but I don't think you can say that they have a weak link this year either. Gaines, maybe in some games...

I called it that the Chiefs could be contenders in a preseason WSO post. I hope they are, but obviously New England is a tougher team to beat. Not TOO worried about anyone in the AFC other than NE, and I hate hate hate NE.

As for the NFC, I gotta root for Dallas, Atlanta, or NY. They don't seem to be the same team, but if there is any team in the past 10 years that could pull off surprise wins, it has been the G-Men. They beat an awesome Cowboys team twice this year, and I think they could take Brady and the Pats if it came down to it.

EDIT: After re-reading this, I don't know where I was going with the running game tangent. I'm tired as hell. I think I was saying that overall Chiefs and the Cowboys typically have some of the better run games, mostly due to their o-lines.

 

if I had to put money down, it'd be pittsburgh v NE in the AFC championship.

hawks are overrated, sorry AndyLouis. they had 5 games this year that they scored 1 or 0 touchdowns. yes they have a good defense but they are without Thomas and I think Rodgers, Ryan, Palmer & Brees all showed you can put up points on them.

I'm a packers fan so selfishly I hope it's them from the NFC, but if it's not Green Bay, I think it's Atlanta. wisdom dictates not betting on something that's never happened (rookie QB/RB making super bowl), so I'm bearish on Dallas.

if it's not Green Bay (in which case I'd pick them to win), I'm saying Falcons over Pats in a shootout, 35-32.

 

Lions have never won a wild card game, nor have they ever won a playoff game on the road. But would you bet on them to cover a +8 spread?

The fool thinks himself to be a wise man, while the wise man thinks himself to be a fool.
 

May be controversial but I see the Giants in the Super Bowl. Defensive is key in the post season and I think people have a bias towards overrating teams whose main weapons are on the offensive side of the ball.

 

Pats defense is WAY better this year. like #1 in what matters most, points allowed. Oh, and they are #3 in offense... http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/defensive-stats

So basically, if you bet against the Pats straight up, you are a moron.

If you're getting a big spread or crazy odds, sure. Just remember the Pats are 13-3 against the SPREAD this year...it's basically the Patriots and then everyone else.

I wouldn't mind the Giants in the Superbowl...sports are for entertainment / excitement. I think that would be an amazing game with incredible legacy implications.

 

Is Gronk still alive?

I guess I figured he hoped on a treadmill to rehab his back, got his heart rate up above 80, and his heart exploded in his chest and his arteries melted down...

Director of Finance and Corporate Development: 2020 - Present Manager of FP&A and Corporate Development: 2019 - 2020 Corporate Finance, Strategy and Development: 2011 - 2019 "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
 

I'd have to agree with the Giant's part, they've been underestimated all season. As a Pat's fan as well, a Giants-Pats game is going to be fucking intense, unfortunately I don't know if the odds are stacked in our favor in that match up either.

 

My predictions:

Steelers will trounce the Dolphins. Seahawks will beat the Lions. I don't think these two games will be close.

I think the raiders will beat the Texans... Even without their QB. But it could go either way. Whoever wins this game won't go any further though, so it doesn't matter.

I think (hope) the Packers will beat the giants, just based on their current streak. But this will be a good game to watch.

 

Pat's are going to the superbowl. Likely will be steelers - pats in a AFC matchup. NFC is really interesting...If there is one team that hasn't been getting the credit it deserves this season it's the giants. I think if they make it past green bay then they have a solid shot at making it to the super bowl. All they need is a stellar defense performance (likely) and OBJ to have a solid game (somewhat likely) to get past green bay. Dallas has been and is overrated, I'd love to see what half the QBs and RBS in this league could do behind a line like that. Giants have shown what's possible once you shut down the Cowboy's run game.....

 

except giants didn't really shut down the run game, DAK and Co just had a terrible game passing (namely Dez Bryant was way off) - Giants forced turnovers that Dallas rarely gave up this year and it proved to decide the game.

And I don't understand your overrated comment? is the o-line not part of the team? say DAK or Zeke are overrated then, not the team....

 

A team can be overrated and still have a killer o-line, and they shut it down enough to win. Against Giants zeke averaged 3.5 yds per carry for 1 TD, not bad for other teams but not great stats when compared to the rest of dallas running game throughout the season.

 
Best Response

Also a biased giants fan that went to school in boston with hordes of obnoxious pats fans. Seeing the pats crumble against the G-men in the SB and watch their fans literally cry in despair is hilarious (and incredibly stressful). I've been preaching the three-peat matchup all year and it definitely looks realistic.

Is it a high probability? Not really, but if Eli stops having brain aneurysms all over the football field we have a realistic shot to silence the bs once and for all.

The AFC playoff race is a joke. Completely incompetent QBs, Steelers D is trash, and the Chiefs are the only real competition though they haven't looked great as of late.

NFC is going to be a bloodbath and can probably go in any number of directions. While not in the literal sense, I think all of the NFC teams are wildcards and can make it. Cowboys are good but overrated. Rookie has never won a SB and I don't see this changing this year especially after we exposed them twice. Horrified of potentially facing the seahawks for obvious reasons. Packers are tough but have a suspect defense and bipolar offense. Giants offense is god awful but that defense though... Falcons are rolling big time, but defense wins superbowls. History is simply not on the Lions side.

I'll leave off with this little fact: last time the cowboys finished as the top seed, we went on to beat them, the packers and the undefeated pats to win it all. Derpface FTW

 

I love the dream of the three-peat, but realistically I'm not high on our chances this weekend. Mainly because of how bad Eli has been. Not the clutch Eli of the past. Unless Perkins comes in like a boulder Brandon Jacobs style and manages to get the run game going, there is only so much the defense can do if they are on the field for too long. Not great chances against your run D. Also you guys are on fire (mainly Rodgers + Nelson), though the 6 game win streak isn't against particularly strong team.

But this is what makes the NFL playoffs great. Unlike the NBA, NHL, MLB, the best team doesn't necessarily win and anything can happen in the one and done format. And as far as the Giants go, we're a bigger wildcard than Charlie from Always Sunny. Should be a great weekend of football.

 
adapt or die:
Out of this weekend's games I would lay the points with Houston at home. Best defense in the league based upon yardage and they're facing a QB that didn't even dress one game this year. Even better if you get it at 3.5 instead of 4.

If anyone took my 5 dime play for the week, you're welcome.

This week I am liking a teaser with Chiefs (+7.5) and Texans (+21.5). That Chiefs spread is in Wong teaser territory.

 

Took New England a while back to win super bowl at +125 have houston over oakland for this weekend, would have liked to see oakland advance but key injuries late in season may be their demise. Also have seattle over detroit. Packers v NY will be interesting especially as Eli has gone 2-0 away vs them in past, tho Eli looks awful lately IMO

 

So more or less aligned to what the public, the odds, and the posts on this thread figured would happen.

Really the teams expected to lose, did so with little to no struggle, the Lions, Raiders, Dolphins, and the Giants* (Tear) really didn't come to play.

Except Matt Moore... he probably is re-learning to walk after his hit

Now going forward we have some more interesting match ups which could lead to some more interesting games. I would love nothing more than the Texans to upset the Patriots, even though those odds have to be less than 0...

 

Packers and the Steelers looked damn good. Houston looked like trash even with a win and it sucks that Carr wasn't able to lead the Raiders. Still uncertain about the Seahawks, but that running game was impressive.

The "final 8" are all really teams except Houston. I'll say Packers/Falcons (come on, you know the Cowboys aren't making it) and Steelers/Patriots for the conference title games.

Also, lol @ both Joey Porter and OBJ. Complete morons.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

Didn't get a chance to watch Packers, but Rodger's highlights were fantastic.

I still feel KC can bring some trouble to Pittsburgh passing, even after seeing AB's performance. If we can disrupt and make plays, I'm hopeful. I'll recede and watch as a fan now.

Also excited to see Dallas play, lots of hype around two rookies.

 
BobTheBaker:

fuck off, the Texans D was dominant as expected. Handled the opponent 27-14 (due to a garbage time TD by oak) and we looked like trash? Fuck off.

The Texans D was "dominant" against a rookie QB making his first start ever in the playoffs. They play Tom Brady next...

Also, chill

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

yikes Giants! I'd be lying if I said I wasn't on cloud 9 right now though. /gloat

sidebar: I'm shocked at how articulate and composed OBJ was in the postgame press conference after a game where he played like absolute dogshit. cam newton should take notes. OBJ is a true professional, giants are fortunate to have him. headbutts & wall punches notwithstanding of course.

my Packers defense looked strong in the second half yesterday, I think the first half can be attributed to drops, between beckham and shephard giants left at least 3 first downs and 2 TDs on the table. really like our chances against Dallas. we're coming in hot, and we showed we can win without jordy (though I doubt they'll let Cobb get 3 scores next week). I will be on pins and needles until the very end of that game, I haven't felt euphoria like yesterday since 2010.

steelers look dangerous. big ben barely got breathed on until that pick in the 4th quarter, their O line is tops in the league which might be the most underreported story this postseason. steelers LBs and defensive line (granted, against the dolphins) played quite well. would not want to see them in the next round. chiefs d line versus stillers o line will be the matchup to watch. finally, Le'Veon Bell is going to get stupid money this offseason, he deserves MVP consideration, best RB in the AFC easily, perhaps best in NFL (Zeke & David Johnson also great).

did not watch saturday's games but stick by my previous comments that seattle is overrated and if the packers don't go, it'll be the falcons (not betting on a rookie winning SB).

 

Bell is the best RB in the league, not just the AFC. Everyone who has a #1 pick in fantasy next year should pick him, which means that barring injury/ suspension he should've been the #1 pick 3 years in a row.

Array
 

Once we gave up that hail mary, the writing was on the wall. 5 guys within arms reach of that ball, pretty sad. I think it was more demoralizing to the players than us fans watching. Complete 180 on momentum and all (steep!) downhill from there. Abysmal performance from the receivers, playoff Eli stepped up like he usually does, but the drops were just cringeworthy. Would love to see you guys face off with the Falcons, that would be a wild game.

 

regarding 5 guys within arm's reach, the trouble is almost no teams (aside from green bay and maybe detroit & baltimore) practice hail marys, because very few QBs have the arm strength to launch it as high and deep as you need to in order to be effective. because hardly any teams practice it, very few know how to catch or defend it. the one to richard rodgers was just a defensive blunder, he bodied people but he was essentially uncovered. jeff janis's in the divisional round last year was well contested by arizona, janis just got the 50/50 ball, and randall cobb's on sunday just caught the DBs by suprise and happened to be where only randall could get it (in the back of the end zone). before sunday, if you had told me our shortest receiver would've caught a hail mary against one of the best DB corps in football, I would've laughed at you.

the falcons scare me more than anyone. I remember watching the game earlier this year, and we're totally different teams now. they showed over the past few weeks they can put up points without julio, their RBS are versatile, and their defense is coming into its own. all of that being said, matty ice has a 1-4 playoff record and a passer rating sub 90 in the postseason.

still have to get past dallas though...

 

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Director of Finance and Corporate Development: 2020 - Present Manager of FP&A and Corporate Development: 2019 - 2020 Corporate Finance, Strategy and Development: 2011 - 2019 "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
 

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