Nice Capitulation Indicator: This Website!

So I haven't posted in awhile, although some may remember me from my post of August 2007 when I said both Bear and Lehman might go out of business and was roundly mocked for it. Anyway, I think that a nice indicator that perhaps we are near a bottom in this financial mess (although not near the bottom of the lay-offs on Wall St or the real economy mess) is how dead this website has become. I would love to see a chart of something like the 20 day moving average of posts to the investment banking board vs. the S&P 500. I bet they both peaked at the same time and when this site finally shuts down I bet it we will have seen the lows in stocks. I am quite certain that a website which sells advertising based on the idea that college kids who are interested in banking are numerous and wealthy enough to be worth having a forum for will not survive this crisis. This website will be like the tons of magazines about tech venture capital that sprung up and died around the dot com boom. Hope the creators of this site have a backup plan/second career lined up!

 
Best Response

Bondarb,

I'm flattered you think that we have enough overhead that we could actually "go out of business." Lets see...I have a total of...1 employee - me. Also, I hate to break it to you but traffic has not dropped off dramatically like the S&P -- actually, quite the opposite. In September / October when shit was hitting the fan our traffic saw a spike. See Edmundo's free 2008 Year in Review in our Guide section for a refresher: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/page/wall-street-interview-guide-page

Hate to burst your bubble but WSO and myself aren't going anywhere. We started 2008 with 10,000 registered users and now we're at ~18,200. Would I call this a full-time job yet? no way (I can dream)...but I am passionate about it and I am confident that continued growth in our member base will continue to help our community thrive. Both young finance professionals and prospective monkeys continue to gain valuable information through the community -- both private messages that you can't see and in the forums.

But welcome back anyway! I love to see old users returning. Do you remember the title of the thread you created that talked about Lehman and Bear going under? would love to give it a read to see how dead on you were...

Thanks, Patrick

 

Bondarb, I think you misunderstood the economics of WSO a bit.

However, you were so dead right in your two earlier posts (the initial one and the comeback to gloat) that I'm going to have to insist you make some more predictions.

It seems as if a lot of sunshine and rainbows (optimists) guys are now joining the fire and brimstone (pessimist) camp. I think they're the predicting equivalent of momentum jockeys so I want to know what the original fire and brimstone types think.

 

I joined this site under another username in September 2006, and now more than two years later, and 18 months after graduation, I'm still a regular reader/contributor. I think you underestimate a user base, namely wall street professionals. I have no idea of the exact ratio of college kids to wall street professionals on this site but I don't think its as lopsided as you think it to be. My point is that users like me will continue to visit and post on this site because I think its an excellent forum to exchange viewpoints with like minded professionals.

 

i just looked back at the thread: you were right in your predictions, but perhaps worse with your reading skills.

most of the posts I saw in that thread didn't "roundly ridicule" you--a lot of them agreed with you, or had no opinion but thanked you for your opinion (which was clearly well-informed) and asked for your opinion on at least 4 other topics.

in particular, the senior people on the board especially seemed to agree with your analysis (a lot of whom i don't see around much anymore...smuguy97, ideating, etc). were there some who disagreed...sure. but not very much ridiculing from what i saw.

and don't paint yourself to be any more clairvoyant than you were. you called bullshit in august of 07--after the Bear Stearns hedge fund fiasco. it was a good call definitely and i imagine you made A LOT of money if you put your money where your instincts took you in the next 1.5 years. but still not quite John Paulson quality there.

and i have to agree with SAC...in 6 months i'll be in this industry full time, and while i'll probably spend less time on the website, i'll still be around. if for no other reason than that it helped me, and i wouldn't mind helping others.

of course, in 12 months, i'll probably be working at barnes and noble.

 

are you really gloating and criticizing on an anonymous message board...you're a clown

While I think that the content of the website is sometimes a bit watered down and misinformed overall I think the forum serves as a reliable source of information and a nice distraction from work

I think Patrick and the other contributors are continuing to do a great job

 

...like with all the other posts, only time will tell. If traffic on this site is up you wouldn't know it by the posting volume (or lack thereof). As for my opinions on markets now, I am light on conviction. I think the economy will stay bad longer then current consensus which is that the recession will be over in Q3 2009, but markets have an awful lot of doom and gloom priced into them so its pretty hard to be bearish and its certainly not a no-brainer like it was in 2007. I also think that Wall St. like it was "in the old days" is over for good. Firings will continue en masse this year...Merrill and BOA for example are just getting warmed up sending out the pink slips. We may not get the big headlines like "Citi fires 50,000 employees" but head-counts are going to keep slowly and steadily declining in hedge funds, PE, and of course on the street. Bottom line is that incoming analyst classes are going to be much much smaller and young people on Wall St. are going to be paid much much less for so there is really no need for a message board to discuss strategies on getting into the industry. I don't see any message boards out there discussing how to get a job as a white collar desk jockey in any other segment of corporate America and finance is not going to be any different. Again, only time will tell. No need for such defensiveness from the WSO staff of 1 BTW, its just my opinion...

 

Bondarb, I definitely hear you but I still have to disagree: "I don't see any message boards out there discussing how to get a job as a white collar desk jockey in any other segment of corporate America and finance is not going to be any different."

haha, are you serious? There are about 5 huge message boards for lawyers, auto-admit probably being the largest, nicube.com is one in the UK that targets all of these "white collar professions."...and there are countless other examples, many which are very successful.

The fact is that Wall Street positions will still pay undergrads more than most other white collar jobs. As long as attractive compensation exists, finance jobs will remain some of the most desirable for UGs out there. the fact that there will be fewer jobs to be had in the next few years may deter some prospective monkeys, but I still think there will be thousands trying to break in each year. will the pool be smaller in the next few years? obviously. will it disappear? unlikely. will it grow again when we come out of this recession? likely.

sorry if I came off as defensive -- just giving my opinion right back :)

 

Veritatis qui expedita cum eum cumque occaecati et. Eveniet qui voluptas iure voluptatibus. Neque aut rerum maiores sapiente.

Voluptas temporibus dignissimos sapiente dicta. Exercitationem ipsum impedit nesciunt maiores. Quis maxime natus neque aliquid quam. Expedita odio pariatur architecto. Aspernatur minus placeat at repellendus rem aut ea.

Magnam itaque ut voluptates suscipit ratione hic rerum beatae. Dolores vitae modi est rerum similique iusto. Sed placeat veritatis deleniti et laudantium ipsam.

Necessitatibus modi dolor omnis occaecati aut voluptatem consequatur. Eum consectetur consequatur ab vitae. Vel quibusdam et mollitia enim voluptatum. In perspiciatis et est omnis earum illo.

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
6
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
7
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
8
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
9
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
10
numi's picture
numi
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”