6 Free Financial Modeling Lessons...and More.

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 4:28pm

HedgeHog:

Oh you mean since QE has begun which inflates the price of assets, both physical and financial. Yeah, thanks Obama for that one.

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So you're saying corporations

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 4:39pm

So you're saying corporations are not in much better shape 4 yrs later? Yes, all smoke n mirrors.

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HedgeHog: So you're saying

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 4:45pm

HedgeHog:

So you're saying corporations are not in much better shape 4 yrs later? Yes, all smoke n mirrors.

Much better shape? Yeah, sure. Laid off tons of workers, rung efficiencies, delevered. All things that happen in a recessionary environment. How has Obama had anything to do with this?

I really wouldn't consider them to be even in great shape. They are just pared down and leaner, which happens when you have to operate in an economy like this. People aren't employed and businesses aren't expanding because there is lack of demand. Input prices are rising and those costs are either compressing margins or hurting end consumers. Wouldn't call this an ideal situation.

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Rescued the banks, reopened

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 4:50pm

Rescued the banks, reopened the capital mkts, allowed companies to retire or reduce massive amts of debilitating debt, facilitated what's now becoming meaningful housing recovery via refinance programs. All in face of a massively obstructionist GOP house. Markets speak for themselves....

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The economy has improved,

OkComputer

(Senior Baboon, 210

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:04pm

The economy has improved, that's a fact. But it's not yet good, and still has the potential to get worse again.

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." --Abraham Lincoln

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HedgeHog: Rescued the banks,

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:13pm

HedgeHog:

1) Bush started the bailout. Obama continued it. One could argue that the banks weren't "rescued" but merely propped up.

2) How did Obama allow companies to retire debt? They simply cut back on capex, laid people off and made people do more with less. And they used those funds to pay down debt. No expansion, no growth, no jobs created of boost to GDP.

3) Housing is rebounding, very slowly. One could argue all the excess supply is simply being sucked up by big funds instead of individuals. Refinance programs haven't impacted a large percent of home owners.

Lending standards are tight. Credit scores are down. People are underwater. Refinancing and home buying is simply trundling along.

And the stock market doesn't lie? How about the tech bubble. or the housing bubble? The market lies all the time. It is not a reflection of the overall economy. We have minimal GDP growth, low labor participation, high unemployment, housing and consumer spending are low and bumping along. Businesses are not expanding and are still laying off. Commodity costs continue to increase.

So how is everything just fine?

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So you're massively short, I

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:23pm

So you're massively short, I take it. Happy to keep making money being long. Same arguments were even more compelling coming into 2012 and we've had huge rally. Plus, amazing that the "socialist" Obama let all the free market things you mention. Just saying, Obama is much more business friendly than the haters give him credit for, and it's made for a fabulous time to make money (if you weren't too busy complaining about non-existant problems with Obama's policies)

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I guess we have a different

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:30pm

I guess we have a different opinion on what constitutes a strong economy and healthy businesses. You think stock prices are the end all be all. I think companies expanding, growing, hiring, with consumers who are spending, saving and investing, is ideal.

Not what we have here.

I'll let you get back to your cheer-leading session.

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It's because Obama hasn't

(Senior Neanderthal, 5,340

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:48pm

It's because Obama hasn't done a single fucking thing while in office except age 4 years. Just wait until all these regulations and tax hikes kick in. You're gonna be cryin' like a bitch.

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

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In reply to BTbanker

Yes, bc future tax rates and

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 5:54pm

Yes, bc future tax rates and regulations are completely unknown and not priced into stocks or models. Either your hatred is irrational or you need a serious lesson in capital markets.

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HedgeHog: Yes, bc future tax

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:07pm

HedgeHog:

Yes, bc future tax rates and regulations are completely unknown and not priced into stocks or models. Either your hatred is irrational or you need a serious lesson in capital markets.

I still don't understand how you can say that just because the market is up the overall economy is fine.

Was the economy fine when the market reached its heights during the RE bubble? Was the economy strong during the tech bubble?

Are you saying that QE 1-3 and beyond have nothing to do with the inflated equity prices and commodity prices?

Companies continue to lay off and are reluctant to hire. Consumer demand simply isn't there. Mortgage rates are at all time lows, along with housing prices, yet housing, one of the major drivers of the economy, limps along.

How about you lay your thesis out on why things are great and caused by Obama. Beyond just pointing to the Dow and saying "it is up, things must be fine".

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HedgeHog: Yes, bc future tax

(Senior Neanderthal, 5,340

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:16pm

HedgeHog:

Yes, bc future tax rates and regulations are completely unknown and not priced into stocks or models. Either your hatred is irrational or you need a serious lesson in capital markets.

I don't recall the market ever going up when bad GDP numbers come out, no matter what initial expectations are... but what do I know?

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

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I wouldn't have been long the

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:16pm

I wouldn't have been long the market then. I'm saying (forward looking) I'm long the market now. If you're bearish on economic prospects, come out and say it's time to get short risk and let's talk in 4 yrs. Otherwise, pls stfu

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HedgeHog: I wouldn't have

(Human, 13,710

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:22pm

HedgeHog:

Ok, we got it, you are long the market. We are talking about businesses and the economy. I already said that QE will inflate asset prices. Lets talk about the fundamental health of the economy and how Obama impacted it greatly.

De-leveraging is great. But de-leveraging because of fear and/or shell shock, with funds you took from capex or got by laying people off, is not positive de-leveraging.

Considering how low the cost of capital is you'd think companies would be re-levering and deploying these funds in positive return ventures. Yet they are not.

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If both the Google and

(Senior Neanderthal, 5,340

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:39pm

If both the Google and Starbucks CEOs each sold over $100MM of their own stock in December, what does that tell you?

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

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I think people are less

rogersterling59

(Senior Orangutan, 480

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 6:53pm

I would agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

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OP, you VP of Lumina

(Senior Neanderthal, 5,340

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 7:24pm

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

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The economy is the least of

moneymogul

(Senior Orangutan, 464

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 7:45pm

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HedgeHog: Since Obama took

orangejulius

(Senior Baboon, 237

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 7:49pm

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TNA: HedgeHog: I wouldn't

orangejulius

(Senior Baboon, 237

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 7:52pm

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In reply to BTbanker

BTbanker: OP, you VP of

rogersterling59

(Senior Orangutan, 480

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 7:53pm

I would agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

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I'm the sheep, yet everyone

In reply to SirTradesaLot

(Baboon, 130

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 8:06pm

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Who's up for a lesson in the

SirTradesaLot

(Senior Neanderthal, 4,780

Points)

on 1/10/13 at 8:14pm

I'm a lover, not a fighter, but I'm also a fighter, so don't get any ideas.

My WSO Blog

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SirTradesaLot: Who's up for a