8/4/11

I am out. Market has decided to go on a skydiving trip this month. Unemployment numbers arent even out yet.....

Comments (97)

8/4/11

I knew everything was gonna go to hell when they passed the debt ceiling. I pulled out a few days ago (last Friday) because I sawa looming downgrade. I was also watching the S&P 1,260 for a break in the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. So happy I got out- I would have lost almost $30k today. (Needless to say it's not all my money)

Reality hits you hard, bro...

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8/4/11

Whats the guess for tomorrow? I am looking to make a good entry point, but feel there's too much downside risk still.

8/4/11
txjustin:

Whats the guess for tomorrow? I am looking to make a good entry point, but feel there's too much downside risk still.

Stay liquid and wait 2 or 3 weeks

8/4/11

agree the fuck is going on atm were we that over bought ?!?! what news brought dow down 250 ish ?!?!!?

8/4/11
blastoise:

agree the fuck is going on atm were we that over bought ?!?! what news brought dow down 250 ish ?!?!!?

No news is bad news. That's sort of the mantra right now.

8/4/11

Its time to buy, agree with txjustin.

8/4/11

DJIA Short
S%P 500 Short
Euro Stoxx 50 Short
DAX Short
EUR/USD Short
Brent Short
WTI Short
Silver Short

SELL ALL, thats the motto at Wall Street

Cant wait for Q3 Reports of the BBs...

And of course QE3 !

8/4/11
HedgeTed:

DJIA Short
S%P 500 Short
Euro Stoxx 50 Short
DAX Short
EUR/USD Short
Brent Short
WTI Short
Silver Short

Just do it !

8/4/11
HedgeTed:

DJIA Short
S%P 500 Short
Euro Stoxx 50 Short
DAX Short
EUR/USD Short
Brent Short
WTI Short
Silver Short

Good strategy for the next two weeks

8/4/11

It's not even that. Peope are looking at the debt deal, they are looking at the stagnant job market, they are looking at Europe, and the BOJ intervened BIG TIME on the yen so the dollar strengthened vs. the yen. All fundamenta factors= down.

On top of that there are mad bad technical signs with the economy. We are not overbought. We are 100% oversold. Look at this chart, you can easily see that both the RSI and Willliams%R are in oversold territory (for the Dow). Double Dip anyone? The problems also lie in Head and Shoulders pattern that has been emergent in the S&P fore weeks now. If you follow ZeroHedge, you can see that last week (or the wek before) they were kinda cheerleading t- since they love bad news it seems. The neckline was at 1,260 on the S&P. The Nasdaq and Dow also broke through key technical levels two days ago and yesterday's inability to capitalize on the gains further accelerated the downward pressure. The patterns, fundis and especially the lackluster debt deal with possibility of an S&P downgrade all put huge pressure on the market. Some people are saying we're gonna see S&P 1,120...I doubt it. The S&P is showing support at the -27.2% retracement line, but I dont know how long that's gonna last. But until I see some sort of sense or mitigation in the down side, I'm gonna stay out.

For some humor...Triple Dip anyone?

Reality hits you hard, bro...

Best Response
8/4/11
8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

Thanks, great vid

8/4/11

Italy prosecutors seize Moody's, S&P documents
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/us-italy...

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

Italy prosecutors seize Moody's, S&P documents
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/us-italy...

If that's not the sign of a country in trouble idk what is.

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11

^^^ lol

"Fool me once....Shame...shame on you....Fool me twice...Won't get fooled again..hehehe"

I love GWB quotes. Mainly because I love the man on a personal (not political) level.

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11

HAHAHAHA!

Which one of you pikers is long DNDN?

C'mon, fess up.

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

HAHAHAHA!

Which one of you pikers is long DNDN?

C'mon, fess up.

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

8/4/11
NorthEastIdiot:

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

You mean you KNEW of a fund that had a position in DNDN

8/4/11
zeropower:
NorthEastIdiot:

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

You mean you KNEW of a fund that had a position in DNDN

Holy Sh*t...it's down 66%

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11
NorthEastIdiot:

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

They're updating their resumes as we speak.

But the gang over at Rodman & Renshaw is still shotgunning the Kool-Aid:
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-co...

How does anyone take your research seriously when you have to revise a price target down from $63 to $17 but the company is still an OUTPERFORM?

Seriously, what the fuck?

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:
NorthEastIdiot:

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

They're updating their resumes as we speak.

But the gang over at Rodman & Renshaw is still shotgunning the Kool-Aid:
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-co...

How does anyone take your research seriously when you have to revise a price target down from $63 to $17 but the company is still an OUTPERFORM?

Seriously, what the fuck?

And I was pissed about TEVA....

This makes no freaking sense. I mean, I guess in a vacuum going from the current price of $12 to $17 would definitely outperform the market. When did they issue this report? DNDN closed ~$36 yesterday.

I know nothing about DNDN, but I may start doing my research because I love buying stocks that get beaten to hell. My biggest money making trade to date is still OSK.

8/4/11
accountingbyday:

This makes no freaking sense. I mean, I guess in a vacuum going from the current price of $12 to $17 would definitely outperform the market. When did they issue this report? DNDN closed ~$36 yesterday.

They issued it a couple hours ago, in light of this carnage.

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:
NorthEastIdiot:

I might know a fund that had a sizeable position in Dendrion until this morning.

They're updating their resumes as we speak.

But the gang over at Rodman & Renshaw is still shotgunning the Kool-Aid:
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-co...

How does anyone take your research seriously when you have to revise a price target down from $63 to $17 but the company is still an OUTPERFORM?

Seriously, what the fuck?

R&R cover the company quite heavily, and one can only assume they need to keep recommending the long to their clients.

8/4/11

Had a chance to get out even this morning in a position.... position is now down 7% ...ffffffffffffffffffffffffff

8/4/11

Weird price estimates of the BBs concerning Gold, $1690-----$2000 arent that realistic.

Buy Greek Bonds, best thing you can do now, thats a safe haven. Jean Claude Trichet ( JCVT, the finance JCVD) says betting against the euro will fail.

The EU has more money to spend/burn than the USA, Germany pays and lucky speculators collect the cash.

8/4/11

hahah

8/4/11

how about YOKU? it's dropping and i want to get it at it's lowest... good idea or no?

8/4/11

holy shit everything...Jackson hole will be quite interesting

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8/4/11

I'm gonna call -400 today (S4)

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11

Down 408 as we speak. Do I hear -500?

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

Down 408 as we speak. Do I hear -500?

Was just -408 5 min ago, now -472 and falling. I'll say close at -530

8/4/11
ampelmannchen:
Edmundo Braverman:

Down 408 as we speak. Do I hear -500?

Was just -408 5 min ago, now -472 and falling. I'll say close at -530

HAHA -514.61 close close

I want a lady on the street, but a freak in the bed,

Go Bucks!!

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

Down 408 as we speak. Do I hear -500?

Do you remember these books called DOW 20.000, DOW 50.000 and DOW 100.000

Maybe we'll gonna see some books called DOW 10.000, DOW 9000 and DOW 8000

8/4/11

do you guys think DNDN is a good buy right now? or should I wait a couple weeks?

8/4/11
oldmansacks:

do you guys think DNDN is a good buy right now? or should I wait a couple weeks?

I actually looked at the calls, but they're way too spendy on this volatility. Honestly, if I just wanted a crapshoot I'd buy some of the August $10 puts for .45 each.

8/4/11
oldmansacks:

do you guys think DNDN is a good buy right now? or should I wait a couple weeks?

Read the conf call transcript. Went over it myself but wasnt too impressed. Depends if you believe the people running the firm. Though job cuts and complete lack of fiscal guidance (well, removal) say otherwise.

8/4/11
zeropower:
oldmansacks:

do you guys think DNDN is a good buy right now? or should I wait a couple weeks?

Read the conf call transcript. Went over it myself but wasnt too impressed. Depends if you believe the people running the firm. Though job cuts and complete lack of fiscal guidance (well, removal) say otherwise.

What I get from it is that DNDN thinks doctors are too stupid to use their vaccine. Yea, that's the way to reassure investors.

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11
8/4/11

It's a reimbursement issue for the doctors who aren't prescribing the medicine as much as Dendreon anticipated and sales are taken off MUCH more slowly than projected. Sales will pick up over time, as the formulation works.

8/4/11

This is madness.

8/4/11

No, this is SPARTA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

8/4/11

I'll look into DNDN after this crazy stuff ends. Eddie's -500 call might be right...

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/4/11
MMBinNC:

I'll look into DNDN after this crazy stuff ends. Eddie's -500 call might be right...

The big issue I got off of the call is that the ramp of Provenge is now obscured. We don't know what the ramp looks like now. The fact mgmt took guidance off the table is also completely disconcerting, considering the last time I heard management here they were super pumped.

Their patient dosage has dropped "at least" by a factor of 2 and now it's really impossible to determine what the next few quarters will look like from an earnings standpoint.

If you're deciding on whether to take a flier on these guys, ask yourself this: when has management ever gone from being giddy about their products to stone sober within weeks and then suddenly had a huge turnaround?

8/4/11

Gotta think the mkt is pricing a miss on the jobs number tomorrow. Any chance the market rallies nicely tomorrow on even a modest beat?

8/4/11
ampelmannchen:

Gotta think the mkt is pricing a miss on the jobs number tomorrow. Any chance the market rallies nicely tomorrow on even a modest beat?

ROFLMAO!

Hope much?

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:
ampelmannchen:

Gotta think the mkt is pricing a miss on the jobs number tomorrow. Any chance the market rallies nicely tomorrow on even a modest beat?

ROFLMAO!

Hope much?

Hahaha, someone's gotta try to stay optimistic I guess.

8/4/11

I remember DOW 36000 lol
Still possible with QE7 :P

8/4/11

-500.

Seriously, what the hell is going on today?

I'm wondering if this is either an over-panic or the beginning of a double dip..

8/4/11

BOOM.

-512.76 at the close.

Who called it, bitches?

Who wants to see another -500 tomorrow?

8/4/11
Edmundo Braverman:

BOOM.

-512.76 at the close.

Who called it, bitches?

Who wants to see another -500 tomorrow?

I do I do!!!! Then it will be buy buy buy

8/4/11

I am sitting on cash now. The gambler in me wants to jump on some of these cheap buys, but I honestly dont see the market coming back strong anytime soon (I want to say we are looking at another recession). How are you going to play this?

8/4/11

Eddie-

You predicting another -500 tomorrow?

8/4/11
go4it:

Eddie-

You predicting another -500 tomorrow?

I think I am.

8/4/11

QE3 to the rescue... FAS will roll!

8/4/11

well if unemployment is high..... Then I could see -500

I want a lady on the street, but a freak in the bed,

Go Bucks!!

8/4/11

I'm seriously looking to buy ETF short SP 500...maybe do 20-30% of my current portfolio? thoughts?

8/4/11

I suspect NFPs will be awful, possibly negative. My grad school tuition (in euros) needs it.

The sad thing is that QE3 is becoming quite likely, despite the fact that QE2 bears much of the blame for today.

8/4/11

How low is it gonna go?? Where do you guys think it'll be on Jan 1st

8/4/11
FlySoHigh:

How low is it gonna go?? Where do you guys think it'll be on Jan 1st

Thats the ultimative question

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO ???
http://youtu.be/Fz6b3amsoz8

8/4/11

bloomberg got a pretty good rotation of face palm pictures on the home page

8/4/11

I don't know who Dow Jones is, but he better get his shit together.

8/4/11
design:

I don't know who Dow Jones is, but he better get his shit together.

The new question to ask folks will be "Where were you when Dow Jones got his balls smashed?"

8/4/11

edited

8/4/11

Sorry I am late gents...

8/4/11

^^^^^^^^ haha

I want a lady on the street, but a freak in the bed,

Go Bucks!!

8/4/11

This reminds me of '08. If it is like '08, then this is just the beginning. It's only going to take one default to set the whole chain.

Weakest developed countries:
- PIIGS
- Japan
- US
- UK

If Japan's exposed to PIIGS, we could see some crazy shit as a result. Japan's got 225%+ debt to gdp, high interest payments, strong yen, slowing exports, aging population, unfunded off balance sheet liabilities. Banks are probably building up a ton of non-performing loans as a result of economic conditions + natural disaster. I think the trigger would come from Japanese companies with exposure to PIIGS. This would be Lehman x100

8/5/11

Waiting for next week...

I expect a bear market in equities

8/5/11

this forum still ceases to amaze me....how is anything in the market a surprise to anyone?! just tells me that most here cannot or do not read fucking charts.

8/5/11
mfoste1:

this forum still ceases to amaze me....how is anything in the market a surprise to anyone?! just tells me that most here cannot or do not read fucking charts.

People in the business knew. The head and shoulders formation from Jan - Aug in the S&P was pretty apparent, textbook even.

I mentioned it to my portfolio managers early last month and they knew. Firm wide we saw massive de-risking of funds.

But, apparent or not, it still sucks to see it happen.

8/5/11

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43988195/

Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Partners, biggest dumb ever, he says stocks gonna rise in the next months up to 10%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44028591

El-Erian comments on the Thursday Crash
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44030919

Jim Rogers says Government continues in making horrible mistakes. Debt crisis cannot be solved through Quantitative Easing

8/5/11

This forum is further proof wall street is fully of panicky stupid retards. Just see what the market does today.

8/5/11
shera:

This forum is further proof wall street is fully of panicky stupid retards. Just see what the market does today.

Enlighten us, Nostradamus.

8/5/11
shera:

This forum is further proof wall street is fully of panicky stupid retards. Just see what the market does today.

non sequitor much?

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford

8/5/11
shera:

This forum is further proof wall street is fully of panicky stupid retards. Just see what the market does today.

Who are you

Nouriel Roubini Jr. or what ?

8/5/11

US Payroll data has no doubt saved the markets. Well done lads.

"After you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side." - David Tepper

8/5/11
Oreos:

US Payroll data has no doubt saved the markets. Well done lads.

Yeah if payroll had missed its already low expectations then it would have been another bloodbath today.

8/5/11
Cardinal:
Oreos:

US Payroll data has no doubt saved the markets. Well done lads.

Yeah if payroll had missed its already low expectations then it would have been another bloodbath today.

Not like it's that great right now anyway.

No one wants to hold positions over the weekend...

8/5/11

^ LOL.

8/5/11

good prediction.. a little off.. one thing I would suggest to every young investor.. don't let scare make you unload.. hold until it comes back or buy more when its down really low if you truly have faith in your investment.. im not talking day trade, I'm talkin just standard portfolios you plan to keep around... also the money is a gone, theres not a whole lot to be made in certain industries but you will still be able to be profitable with the right picks.. currently im liking tech stocks and they seem to be pretty immune (not 100 percent though)

8/5/11
hookedup:

good prediction.. a little off.. one thing I would suggest to every young investor.. don't let scare make you unload.. hold until it comes back or buy more when its down really low if you truly have faith in your investment.. im not talking day trade, I'm talkin just standard portfolios you plan to keep around... also the money is a gone, theres not a whole lot to be made in certain industries but you will still be able to be profitable with the right picks.. currently im liking tech stocks and they seem to be pretty immune (not 100 percent though)

That's what I thought during 08. Kept holding, holding, holding... next thing you know, I was wiped out.

8/5/11
8/5/11

^^^

hahaha

Reality hits you hard, bro...

8/5/11
8/5/11
whatwhatwhat:

unreal....
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downg...

I honestly checked this link about 3 times to make sure you weren't sending me to a prank site.

People are going to make their fortunes next week.

8/7/11
cjohn09:
whatwhatwhat:

unreal....
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downg...

I honestly checked this link about 3 times to make sure you weren't sending me to a prank site.

People are going to make their fortunes next week.

How's that?

8/8/11
bortz911:
cjohn09:
whatwhatwhat:

unreal....
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downg...

I honestly checked this link about 3 times to make sure you weren't sending me to a prank site.

People are going to make their fortunes next week.

How's that?

Gun store and bar owners are going to clean house.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

8/8/11

I'm just longing gold. Otherwise, I'm out of the market.

8/9/11
Walkio:

I'm just longing gold. Otherwise, I'm out of the market.

Put options on banks and oil companies are safer than investing in gold

8/18/11

Here we go again.

"After you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side." - David Tepper

9/23/11

I think we should get this thread going again. What are you guys buying now? I've bought some oil co's hand over fist yesterday. Gonna double/triple down today I think.

9/23/11
txjustin:

I think we should get this thread going again. What are you guys buying now? I've bought some oil co's hand over fist yesterday. Gonna double/triple down today I think.

Definitely agree on oil - I just went straight into oil when it hit $80 yesterday.

Steel industry has been getting killed lately (for valid reason) but it's getting to the level where I think you have decent downside protection and a lot of upside potential.

Pretty big fan of Mosaic.. at <$57 this morning after lackluster earnings after trading above $70 at the beginning of the week.

Some of the out-of-favor tech names such as Cisco, HP, and RIM are looking pretty interesting.

My big question is at what price are the big banks too attractive to pass up? Don't want to touch BoA right now, but what about Citi, JPM, Wells Fargo, Goldman?

9/23/11
Golfer][quote=txjustin:

Don't want to touch BoA right now

Everybody feels that way and that is when it is the best time to buy it

"One should recognize reality even when one doesn't like it, indeed, especially when one doesn't like it." - Charlie Munger

9/23/11
9/23/11
9/23/11
9/23/11

Reality hits you hard, bro...

9/23/11

My name is Nicky, but you can call me Dre.

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