Dealing With Uncertainty
I think one of the great challenges of life in general, and especially the finance arena, is learning how to deal with uncertainty. It is an essential ingredient to almost all problems. I know it is easy to talk about being cool-headed and detached and very zen about things, which might be easily achievable in calmer waters. But when a stressful catalyst is coupled with a dearth of sleep, it is sometimes difficult to prevent the mind from wandering to every possible future scenario, and settling on the worst one to be the most likely.
So folks, what are ways you deal with uncertainty? Have you trained your mind to embrace it? Do you distract yourself to ignore it? Do you so thoroughly plan as to attempt to overcome it? Would love to hear your thoughts.
I guess the only certain thing in life is that it's uncertain...aside from death and taxes.
not doing too well with the current uncertainty, that's for sure
I love uncertainty. Isn't it boring to know exactly what will happen in a situation? Spice of life, yo
While I agree that a world without any uncertainty would lack excitement and be quite dull, the paradigm I'm more referring to involves possible outcomes that would be devastating if they came to fruition. It's easy to love uncertainty when you know you will still be fine at a base level no matter what will happen in a given tree of events.
Like, there's nothing looming in the shadows in my life that could seriosuly fuck me up. I'm a white male in good health living in the U.S. I mean, obviously there's tons of shit, but none of it is foreseeable by me is what I'm trying to say. Like, I might do bad in a class or not get a job or get in a fight with my girl, but all of that shit is unimportant if you zoom out the timeline. Or I could get hit by a bus and die, but so could anyone. What are you guys so stressed about? Now, I'm single. If I had dependants and money problems, I'd be stressing. So I can only speak for myself.
Bring that shit on. Uncertainty ain't nothin' but a peanut.
^^^^^ Heard that.
The best thing you can do is have a good support system around you. One or a few people that you can count on to be there for you no matter what and push you in the right direction. If it weren't for my gf I'd be in a downward spiral reminiscent of Frank the Tank of Old School fame. That girl kicks my ass in gear too often and cares more than I could ever understand why.
I'm stressed because now because I'm being treated unfairly during the recruitment process. I've led a perfect life - I have a top-notch resume, I have near-perfect grades and I've been told that any employer would love to hire me. Despite the fact that it's taking me an extra 2 years to get through my business degree, I know I'm better than most other students my age. However, I got in a little tiff with the son of a MD at an investment bank - who happens to be one of my peers at school. I told this kid that it wasn't okay to plagiarize our business group case, because that doesn't sit well with me. I then complained to our professor about his dishonesty - but nothing happened because this kid gets treated like royalty at school because his MD dad is an alum who recruits students from our school. I then left the group halfway because I'm not cool with plagiarism and I'm too risk-averse to do that. The group then did poorly on the project and accordingly, the kid's dad blackballed me from the investment bank that I really wanted to work for. I then (unfortunately) acted out with another investment bank, due to sheer frustration and because the Faculty/admin at school are covering up the situation and pushing me into another direction. And now I'm blackballed from 2 investment banks. And I seriously feel like it's the end of my life right now because my entire life plans are falling through - I can't even seek gainful employment in the city that I call home. So the only way I'm able to move forward is to transfer to another business school for this Fall - because I have absolutely no voice in this situation anymore and nobody's going to advocate for me. And that really sucks because I really liked the school I'm at and I especially wanted to attend this university because I love the city that it's in and the class sizes are really small.
Don't know if it get's much stickier then that. It's extremely unfortunate and frustrating...but I feel there's nothing I can do anymore. But such is life...and I'm going to try my best to move forward - one day at a time.
You should call a wahhmbulance.
So you think I'm acting like a little girl for feeling slighted? Or this other kid is a little girl for getting his daddy to fight his own tedious battles?
@"Going Concern"
What exactly are you so stressed about? I'm surprised to read that from you because you generally seem like someone that realizes that life is somewhat meaningless in the long run. Stressing out about meaningless things seems kind of pointless. If all else fails, sex and alcohol (or both) are pretty good stress relievers. Honestly, everything is uncertain...sometimes it works in your favor and sometimes you're steering the ship of the largest bankruptcy in the history of the world.
pinkclouds, many thanks for hijacking the thread and posting all of your specific problems, but that was not the point of the OP.
Sometimes I wish I was a moderator.
Preparing for career uncertainty (Originally Posted: 01/22/2017)
This summer I will be starting a full-time role as a Credit Analyst at a BB Commercial Bank. I interned as an SA last summer and enjoyed the experience as well as the team. With that being said, I'm not so sure it is something that I want to do long-term. I do have some interest in IB and PE, but not an overwhelming urge.
I have a strong academic record at a semi-target (> 3.8 GPA) and have high interest in pursuing an MBA, but without a career path chosen, I'm hesitant to devote the money and time into pursuing that MBA.
Being that it is my last few months at undergrad, I'm deciphering whether I should take the GMAT/GRE before starting work. I have also looked into possibly taking Level I CFA. I'm conflicted as to what would be the best path at this point. Anybody with ideas or similar experiences would be extremely helpful.
you're welcome and i'm sorry that you're not the moderator.
bump
I can't remember who originally said this, but it is funny. “The optimist believes his future is uncertain. The pessimist is always right.” -- Robert Downey Jr.
Value in the eye of the storm: Why you should welcome uncertainty! (Originally Posted: 11/27/2013)
One of the responses to my last post on valuing young companies was that even if you can value companies early in the life cycle, you cannot do so with any degree of confidence. I concede that point, but that is exactly why I would try to value them! I know that statement makes little sense, but to solidify my argument, take a look at the following list of five assets/entities and rank them on the basis of the confidence you will feel in valuing each one (I have provided my rankings and the reasons in the table).
Now that we have dispensed with that formality, I think it is worth asking a more complex question. If valuation is designed to find investment bargains, what is the payoff to doing valuation in each of these settings? Note that the game is now different, since your advantage does not come from the precision of your valuation but in its relative precision: How much more precise is your estimate of value for a given asset is than the estimates of others valuing exactly the same asset? Here is my attempt to look at my potential differential advantages (and I would encourage you to do the same).
Wielding Ben Graham’s tome on security analysis as a weapon, old-time value investors will probably take issue with this argument, pointing to the efficacy of the time-tested value investing conventions, where you are told to stay focused on companies with solid earnings and cash flows, with superior management. I would be inclined to concede the argument, if active value investing, as practiced today, actually worked, but there is little evidence that it does, at least in the aggregate, as I argued in this paper. In fact, there is evidence, albeit weak, that the average active growth investor beats a growth index more frequently and by more than the average active value investors beats a value index. That does not surprise me in the least, since it is in keeping with my thesis that the best investment opportunities are in the volatile, growth sectors.
I think that Ben Graham, if he were writing his book today, would be much less rigid in his view of value than the classicists. The real lesson that I get from reading Graham’s writings is that value is determined by fundamentals and that markets sometimes misread or ignore those fundamentals. My addendum is that investors are more likely to misread and/or ignore fundamentals, when they are faced with large uncertainties than with small ones.
In closing, there are three general propositions about valuation that flow from my view of uncertainty.
Link to the original article: Why you should welcome uncertainty!
Brilliant article - as always!
Can't argue with that
many thanks for another great post!
[In uncertainty] you are just as likely to be wrong as you are to be right. The prospect of outsized losses shadows that of the gains.
Ever had career uncertainty? (Originally Posted: 01/21/2012)
Hey there.
I've been a longtime lurker here and I just wanted to pose a few questions.
Most of you, I'm assuming, have always wanted to get into IB and Finance in general. Have you ever had career uncertainty and not known what you wanted to do exactly in your career?
Just to provide some background, I'm a junior at a non-target with a Finance major. Currently, I intern at ML and once had an internship at BNYM, both of which I didn't/don't exactly enjoy (doing grunt work most of the time).
I've been getting more interested in Finance, but after research, I still don't know what I want to do.
So the main question: Have you ever had any doubts about your college major/job/career? And how did you solve that situation?
I'd love to hear your input. Thanks.
Where do you think you won't be doing grunt work as an entry-level employee? Even NFL rookies have to carry the pads*.
*Unless you're Dez Bryant.
Uncertainty/risk are a fact of life. Security is an illusion and noone is safe from bad luck.
^ Thanks for the replies, guys. I definitely agree.
I should've been clearer: What attracted you guys into IB/Finance? Are you passionate about it? And how'd you know exactly what you wanted out of a career?
The overwhelming response from the alumni I've contacted is do what you love, but there's also the fact that you have to pay bills, etc. somehow. The security of a paycheck is something I've seen a lot in my bank internships. Coming from nothing, I can understand how life isn't fair, but damn, I'm truly inspired by most of the members on these forums when they talk about HF/PE/IB as if they lived for it (besides the pay).
Take this with a grain of salt, as this is coming from someone that worked really hard to break into banking (think extreme non-target, subpar grades, lots of cold-calls, severe lack of self-confidence at first), broke in, and then ended up turning it down. In and out within a year. I'm switching over to entrepreneurship very soon.
I have a couple of friends that went through the BB IBD--> Megafund path; one is at Blackstone Hong Kong, and the others at KKR and Silver Lake. These guys are actually some of the most down to earth guys I know. They aren't gods or superhumans; they're just regular folks like you and me that were honest with themselves earlier and whose passion just happened to be finance. in fact, when I told them that I was quitting, they actually applauded me for it as they personally thought banking was overrated. Too many kids stay in for the wrong reasons, they said.
Look at people actually successful within the profession and compare yourself to them. How similar are you to them? Do you have similar interests? Would you mind spending the majority of the rest of your life working with these people? Are you, deep down inside, these people?
Me? I have a lot of successful friends in finance and I respect what they do, but I've realized I have a completely different set of interests and skills than they do. They actually enjoy studying accounting and learning how the numbers flow; I'd rather learn how people think and how I can market a product to them. They take pride in building an LBO model from scratch; I take pride in having the audacity to cold-call anyone in the firm and winning them over in 30 seconds. They hate interviews; I love them. They hate risks; I love them.
Cliche as it is, I say try your hardest to find your passion. Don't internalize any self-justifying rationalizations spewed on this board (my post included) without considering what you, yourself, really think.
Also, I would recommend not falling into the trap of creating an artificial binary between "doing investment banking" and "being able to pay the bills". There are plenty of other ways to make money (and I'm not just referring to consulting or biglaw). Just gotta find them.
i agree with your points. most of millionaires in U.S. are small business owners. what that says is that to make big bucks, you gotta know how to sell stuff and start a business in some niche area.
my buddy's dad owns a construction/ real estate development business. he's the richest man i know. that guy didn't even go to college, however. my buddy's family live in 10 million mansion + own 2 islands + own a large hotel in London + own a golf course in California + drive Rolls, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, and Bentley. (yes, his family owns all these vehicles)
Do you mean false dichotomy? :)
Everyone should have doubts, worry about mistakes they made, wish they had done something different...but really thats life. Its completely normal. Just think about what is most important to you in life and for your career and then live by that my friend.
Thanks for the replies, guys. Over these past few months of lurking, I've been getting much more motivated by this subforum, specifically the more uplifting topics.
In response to Culcet, at these finance-related events, I feel out of place, despite my (limited) knowledge of markets, etc. I lean more to the creative side (according to almost all my professors, I'm an effective writer), but there's no hope in an English major (nor have I ever considered it).
I wonder what attracts you guys to Finance/IB/etc. I don't like comparing myself to others and their success, but I'd love to hear what about Finance makes you tick?
Just an update, I got a reply from a non-profit for this semester about interviewing.
I'm currently interning at a BB, but what are your guys' thoughts on smaller non-profits? At this point, I'm more worried about getting a summer internship.
I'll happily PM any of you the name of the company that wants to interview me (+ an Excel test).
I rarely have career certainty. Every day I think of something else to do.
I've been interviewing at a couple of places and I'm crossing my fingers for 2nd rounds, but I also don't like putting all my eggs in a a few baskets.
I feel I've missed the deadline for most places.
And I've also been offered a position at a HF for this semester. What to do, what to do?
just wondering, but what did you do at bnym? How was the pay/work life?
I just got offered to do a superday for a Japanese bank in Ops.
Most here would say Operations = no no, but this is the only superday I got (or 2nd round, for that matter). Any thoughts on that?
.
I still have no idea. I know it's probably not what i'm doing currently. Then again, I doubt i'll feel that much different at the next job.
Dealing with uncertainty. (Originally Posted: 02/02/2015)
I am in my final year at university in the UK and I have no idea what will happen once I graduate in the summer. I want to do a masters but may have failed a paper which means I will have to retake in the summer and postpone graduation or I may not get an offer for masters. I may get an internship over the summer at a top hf/pe firm through a contact. I may get a summer job somewhere decent or I may get a job offer for after summer. Or I may be unemployed. This is really worrying me and I am prone to anxiety. How do you deal with uncertainty in general?
I usually take one thing (or two but never more) at a time and set my priorities straight.
Judging from your post, you value Masters more than Summer Internships, so...
"You may have failed a paper?" Are you going to fail or are you not?
Stop being anxious and just wait for the result. Or if there's still something you can do to help you pass, then go ahead.
>If you fail, then well you have to retake it anyway right? Since you prioritize Masters. So, forget about internships. >If you pass, then good for you happy graduation and start applying for Masters.
Then, if you think you have some time until your Masters, just make up your mind about getting summer internships.
>If you got nothing to do anyway, call your contact and gain some experience. >If you want to take a break before your Masters, well go around the world.
I hope this helps.
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