Prediction of Stock: BP

Okay, so here is the third stock prediction. I'm pretty sure I will wrong on this. So please, please, go at this full force since I wanna see where I went wrong. As usually, first the intro & rules.
I added another rule, in that I must state a percentage of the prediction happening. This is more for me, since I need to make sure that I go over the events to help increase the accuracy, a.k.a hold myself accountable, and learn from my mistakes.

Intro:

I have been reading some books about forecasting, most notably Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and Misbehaving. Those books gave me an idea, find a stock that is currently going up or down drastically, and see if I can use the tools I learned from those books to make a prediction about it's price 6 months from.

Rules:
1: Can only invest a max of $300 in either a long or short position.
2: Can use either a stock purchase or an option.
3: Cannot long and short at the same time.
4: The prediction can only last 6 month, and at the end of the 6 months, the position must be sold regardless of a loss or profit.
5: If the stock if greater than a 10% loss of value, it must be sold.
6: Any stock in the world is open, not only U.S.
7: A explanation of why the stock prediction went wrong, before the stock was bought.
Stock: BP BP

Background: A oil & gas company, that is involved in both the Downstream & Upstream aspects of oil & gas exploration. The company is head quarerted in London, England. But has projects all over the world. They have a market cap of close to 100 Billion dollars. Their biggest projects are in the Middle East, Gulf of Mexico and Indo China. They suffered a financial setback with the BP Gulf oil spill close to 56 Billion dollars, which from the last conference call, has been written down by BP. BP also has been under financial pressure from sizeable drop in the price of oil, from $100 to roughly $45. This has resulted in a slow down of oil barrel production and to layoffs, I wasn't able to obtain an exact figure, but it could range between 4000-7000. BPs' profit tumbled from a positive annual return in 2014 to a negitive in 2015.
There have been a few rumors, of a big management shift, hence why the dividend remained at it's current price 0,50 per share. And the bonus for the upper execs.

Prediction: I must be perfectly clear why I believe that the price of BP will rise.

1: Dictators. Yes, BP has a very bad history of being involved with the bad guys. But rather from book, The Dictators Handbook, if a leader is remain in power, they must makes sure that main supports are well-paid, otherwise a revival will come along and offer the supports more money. So that is my belief, that the CEO is giving handsome bonus, while laying people off, to ensure that he remains in power. One the best way to give out bonuses is through stocks. If the price of BP does not go up or worse decline below $30, then it will off with the CEOs head, and in with the new guy(s). So right now, CEO Bob Dudley, has to make sure the stock goes up or he's out of a job. I cannot judge his desires to either stay or leave, if some knows please post it.
2: Slow Down. With the exception of a few state run oil & gas companies, 4 as of this post, everyone else is scaling back production, while OPEC failed to reach an agreement, their declining credit ratings will force them to cut/cap oil production, since the leaders need to stay in power, see reason one above. BP, Shell, Exxon, Statoil are all slashing production, while opening up new refiners. This will lead to a higher oil price.
3: Upstream. BP has it's own distribution, i.e. gas stations. The price which consumers pay at the pump, is highly inflated, compared to the cost at which BP extracts, refines, transports and sells the petrol for. That profit margin will likely increase, due to the cost cutting that BP will ensue in the coming months.
4: Bottomed out. The price of oil is the prime driver for profits at BP. With more places starting to ban fracking, and development of Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) plants at a stand-still, the need for oil & gas will rise again. By increasing the demand, so to will the price of oil. As well BP, Shell & Suncor have all predicted that there will be a slow of fracking and GTL production.

Why I was wrong: There are a lot possibilities but they come down to generally three:

1: The Experts. I hate going with the experts that the price of oil has hit bottom, but I do get they feeling they are right. It is that feeling of they are right, which I am afraid of. Maybe that is why I will be wrong.
2: Bob Dudley, had no intention of staying much longer at BP, and it was my failure to fully investigate him to understand his motives/desire to leave BP.
3: The price of oil did not bottom out, but rather kept on falling to below $20 a barrel. This resulted in even further losses for BP, oil & gas companies and OPEC.

Percentage of event happening: For 65%. Against 25%. Uncertain 10%.

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