Prediction of Stock: Luxottica

I have been reading some books about forecasting, most notably Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and Misbehaving. Those books gave me an idea, find a stock that is currently going up or down drastically, and see if I can use the tools I learned from those books to make a prediction about it's price 6 months from.

Rules:
1: Can only invest a max of $300 in either a long or short position.
2: Can use either a stock purchase or an option.
3: Cannot long and short at the same time.
4: The prediction can only last 6 month, and at the end of the 6 months, the position must be sold regardless of a loss or profit.
5: If the stock if greater than a 10% loss of value, it must be sold.
6: Any stock in the world is open, not only U.S.
7: A explanation of why the stock prediction went wrong, before the stock was bought.
Stock: Luxottica (LUX)

Background:
The stock of Luxottica has been falling from a high of 70$ to it's current value of 55$, primarily due to having three CEOs depart in the span of 18 months. As well the recent "correction" has caused the stock to adjust. Luxottica designs, produces & retails Eyewear products(Ray Ban, Lenscrafts, Burberry, etc...) Which allows them to control a strong market share and have a monopoly.

Prediction:
The company has almost a monopoly on the eyewear industry. By owning the most popular brands and the most popular retailers, the company is able to charge hefty prices for cheap products to make and sell. They have enjoyed continued year over year growth. People have speculated that the company may face competition, however after reviewing their competition, there has been little to slowing growth of Luxottica's competition.
Luxottica, is also going to start establishing an online business to ensure that it has a growing market of the worldwide Eyewear industry, right now it sits between 3--40%. When the Quarterly report is released on April 26, 2016. The company will show an increase in revenue and sales due to a stronger market for eyewear in Asia, causing the stock price to rise above 55$.

Why the prediction went wrong:
I saw that, a majority stack holder was selling their positions in LUX, not only because the CEOs, but because the stack holder was sustaining massive losses on their other investments. In essence, the stack holder was trying to get back as much money, otherwise they feared lossing even more.
And there are were a few small stack holder trying to increase their positions as much as possible.
As well, the fact that the founder is in charge of the company, it was widely known that though he let go of the CEO reins over a decade ago, he still was a big part of the business every day. So he is simply going back to have full control. He will likely let leave the CEO position in a box, and leave it, to one of the co-CEOs, who he has personally trained for the job.

All of those factors made believe that the people selling/shorting the stock were wrong. I should have reviewed the evidence in a different manner, and taken them more with a grain of salt.