I have already averaged down when it hit 530 :S... let's hope january works out....I was hoping for a TV annoucement as a hard catalyst but we'll have to wait a long time for that apparently....

 

You could smell trouble in Apple by the fact they have started releasing protective products rather than innovative ones. Apparently they are throwing money at R & D but they have definitely slipped up in terms of direction.

When the iPhone was released, it was revolutionary, there was no competition anywhere near it for two years. The iPad, revolutionary again, but the tech gap was a lot smaller. For those who like to play the dips, it has dropped an awful lot and there may be some distance in a rebound but in the long term Apple will slow into a semi mature tech profile.

1percentblog.com
 
redrut:
You could smell trouble in Apple by the fact they have started releasing protective products rather than innovative ones. Apparently they are throwing money at R & D but they have definitely slipped up in terms of direction.

When the iPhone was released, it was revolutionary, there was no competition anywhere near it for two years. The iPad, revolutionary again, but the tech gap was a lot smaller. For those who like to play the dips, it has dropped an awful lot and there may be some distance in a rebound but in the long term Apple will slow into a semi mature tech profile.

exactly...there is nothing left to innovate. was only a matter of time until oversaturation and consumer exhaustion hit.

from a strictly common sense approach, almost all digital media channels have been covered - phone: iphone music: ipod tablet: ipad desktop: imac laptop: mb tv: apple tv (debatable)

look around...what's left for first mover advantage, if any? gaming - casual mkt (microsoft), higher-end (also debatable, sony), outside the box (Nintendo). apple entering this themselves, creating something revolutionary...though could happen, not realistically given how entrenched the gaming community is these days

apple expects to throw $ and pop out the next thing, but it really isn't that easy anymore. the #s will still be there, but the catalysts won't be driving anything fwd anytime soon

 
BanditPandit:
redrut:
You could smell trouble in Apple by the fact they have started releasing protective products rather than innovative ones. Apparently they are throwing money at R & D but they have definitely slipped up in terms of direction.

When the iPhone was released, it was revolutionary, there was no competition anywhere near it for two years. The iPad, revolutionary again, but the tech gap was a lot smaller. For those who like to play the dips, it has dropped an awful lot and there may be some distance in a rebound but in the long term Apple will slow into a semi mature tech profile.

exactly...there is nothing left to innovate. was only a matter of time until oversaturation and consumer exhaustion hit.

from a strictly common sense approach, almost all digital media channels have been covered - phone: iphone music: ipod tablet: ipad desktop: imac laptop: mb tv: apple tv (debatable)

look around...what's left for first mover advantage, if any? gaming - casual mkt (microsoft), higher-end (also debatable, sony), outside the box (Nintendo). apple entering this themselves, creating something revolutionary...though could happen, not realistically given how entrenched the gaming community is these days

apple expects to throw $ and pop out the next thing, but it really isn't that easy anymore. the #s will still be there, but the catalysts won't be driving anything fwd anytime soon

I'm sure somewhere on this site it has been discussed before, and I digress from the original topic, but has the magic of innovation left with Jobs? I would argue its too early to tell. The iPhone 5 was a let-down to many, and the maps app didn't help either, but I think it will take a few years before we know if it was purely Jobs fueling the innovation flames. As I understand, they do have great designers.....

But, without doing any due-diligence of chronological product releases, I do agree Apple needs another innovative product in the next 1-2 years to keep up the past decade of excitement they have provided the world with.

Array
 
redrut:
in the long term Apple will slow into a semi mature tech profile.

It already has. Trading at 11.5x earnings, versus 14.5x for MSFT

How can people say it has reached it's peak? While it is the market leader in terms of market share, it still has plenty of room to expand. Growth doesn't have to come from new products. To the person pointing out that they've already hit every media outlet, ipod for music, iphone for phone, etc. That has been true for years now, but it hasn't prevented them from attaining huge double digit growth

 
MFFL:
redrut:
in the long term Apple will slow into a semi mature tech profile.

It already has. Trading at 11.5x earnings, versus 14.5x for MSFT

How can people say it has reached it's peak? While it is the market leader in terms of market share, it still has plenty of room to expand. Growth doesn't have to come from new products. To the person pointing out that they've already hit every media outlet, ipod for music, iphone for phone, etc. That has been true for years now, but it hasn't prevented them from attaining huge double digit growth

I agree that growth doesn't have to come from new products. But the rate of growth that everyone expect from Apple does. Without new products they will never continue double digit growth.

 

Hanging on, at some point the $120 billion in cash, the P/E of like 12 forward earnings and a relative realistic growth rate of 15-20% makes this price laughable. It is trading like a dead value stock, I expect earnings to be better than expected and start the uptick once again, they just need some good news from someone to help them out right now.

 
ct banker:
Hanging on, at some point the $120 billion in cash, the P/E of like 12 forward earnings and a relative realistic growth rate of 15-20% makes this price laughable. It is trading like a dead value stock, I expect earnings to be better than expected and start the uptick once again, they just need some good news from someone to help them out right now.

This brings up my other question. Is anyone considering options?

Array
 
ct banker:
Mel Clark:
July 13 otm vertical call spread bought 700 @ 9.20 sold 715 @ 7.85, cost per trade $135, delta 1.7, vega 7.5.. hoping to cash these out sometime before expiration up 50% on the trade

For the options inclined individuals, can you explain in basic terms

I purchase 1 call option contract with a strike of 700 for $920, write a call w strike of 715, sold for $785. The trade costs me the difference in premiums, $135. For that $135 I now have a position that will make me roughly $1.80 per $1 increase in AAPL's stock price. This is because my 700 strike option will increase in value by more than the 715 strike I sold... Worst case apple falls off the map and never recovers over the next 6 months and I can lose the $135... I havent done the math out for what apples price would need to be to make a 50% return, but it would be roughly $575.. With all the volatility though ill have sometime

 
ct banker:
Mel Clark:
July 13 otm vertical call spread bought 700 @ 9.20 sold 715 @ 7.85, cost per trade $135, delta 1.7, vega 7.5.. hoping to cash these out sometime before expiration up 50% on the trade

For the options inclined individuals, can you explain in basic terms

This is called a bull call spread ct banker.

Considering doing this as well. Haven't looked much but trying to see if I can leg into ITM put spread.

Yahoo is quoting Dec515Put for 15.3 and Dec510Put for 16.35. Unless my phone is fucking up this would make a nice arb.

 
West Coast rainmaker:
I bought a few thousand today. It is worth $650, even if a credible threat to the iPhone/iPad emerges. I feel very secure at 510.

The Ipad is still the best tablet out there but it's been a long time ago that a "credible threat to the iPhone" has appeared. Apple is not any more at the top in the smartphone market, and the iPad margin is thinner than the iPhone one. Probably a strong Q4 but the company has reached its peak.

 

Here is a link to an article on WSJ overviewing the future prospects of an Apple TV set with a few one-liner quotes from Tim Cook. It sounds like its still very far away, if it happens at all:

Sorry, link didn't work. Here's the article in-full:

"Apple Inc. AAPL -3.76% is working with component suppliers in Asia to test several designs for television sets, people familiar with the situation said, suggesting that the company is moving closer to expanding its offerings for the living room.

After a year that included the launch of the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini, what does 2013 hold for Apple products? How high will its stock go? Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster and Steven Russolillo join digits to discuss. Photo: Getty Images.

Executives at some of Apple's suppliers said the company has been testing designs for a large-screen high-definition set.

Two people said Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., 2317.TW -4.69% which assembles the iPhone and iPad, has been collaborating with Japan's Sharp Corp. 6753.TO +7.60% on the design of the new television for several months. "It isn't a formal project yet. It is still in the early stage of testing," one of the people said.

Apple typically tests and develops products internally before doing so with outside suppliers. But while working with suppliers indicates that a project has moved further along, such movement doesn't always bear fruit. The Cupertino, Calif., company has been testing TV prototypes for several years and still could decide not to proceed with the large-screen set.

Competitors such as Google Inc. GOOG -0.10% have been making software for TVs and set-top boxes, but no one has gotten much traction. Apple's move into TV sets would intensify competition with some of its biggest suppliers, such as Samsung Electronics Co. 005930.SE -1.17% The South Korean company supplies components to Apple and is the world's biggest TV-set maker by shipments.

"The potential for consumer lock-in that the television creates will likely drive platform companies to continue exploring the space," Goldman Sachs said last week. "As such, while the battle is just getting started on this front, we see it as having the potential to either further entrench current winners, such as Apple, or completely disrupt the market once again."

Consumer-electronics contract manufacturer Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, has been expanding into large high-definition TV sets this year. Chairman Terry Gou's investment firm in July took a 37.6% stake in a liquid-crystal-display factory owned by Sharp.

The Sakai, Japan, plant, is particularly suitable for making LCD panels 60 inches or larger for TV sets. Taiwan-based Hon Hai this year began assembling 60-inch sets for California-based Vizio Inc. using panels from the Sakai plant.

How a large-screen TV would fit with Apple's TV strategy remained unclear. Apple has been talking to cable-television operators about building a set-top box that would carry live television.

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook recently suggested that the company's interest in television has progressed beyond a "hobby."

Turning on a TV today to going "backward in time by 20 to 30 years," he told NBC News. "It's an area of intense interest. I can't say more than that."

Apple shareholders are anxious about the company's plans. The company's iPhones and iPads sell briskly today. But their popularity could eventually peter out, and many shareholders believe that TV sets could help fill the void.

Apple shares closed at $539 on Wednesday, down from a high of $702.10 in September amid concerns about the company's growth.

Apple has been trying to make its way into the living room for several years. The company has been talking with cable operators in the U.S., including Time Warner Cable Inc., TWC +0.27% about letting consumers use an Apple set-top box for live television and other content.

Plenty of hurdles remain. Apple doesn't appear to have any deals with operators to sell such a device and getting them on board is likely to be challenging. The relationships between Apple and cable companies and content owners are tense.

Apple has had only limited success over the past few years to persuade entertainment companies to grant it rights for TV offerings.

Sales of Apple's current television hardware, the $99 set-top Apple TV, are picking up but remain small. The company sold 1.3 million in the quarter through September.

The device lets users view some Internet video on large screens but doesn't offer traditional channel lineups. Apple has struck deals with video providers such as Netflix Inc. and Hulu LLC to offer content for the Apple TV."

Array
 
Best Response
adapt or die:
Android is going to slaughter Apple long-term. This iPhone 5 is such a flop. Everyone I know who has it is so dissapointed, especially when they see people around them with the Galaxy and Note II.
Really? I know a ton of people who are still in love with their iPhone 5. Maybe not people who upgraded 4 -> 5, but people who recently switched to an iPhone (from BB or Android) or upgraded from 3GS are happy as a clam.
BanditPandit:
exactly...there is nothing left to innovate. was only a matter of time until oversaturation and consumer exhaustion hit. from a strictly common sense approach, almost all digital media channels have been covered - phone: iphone music: ipod tablet: ipad desktop: imac laptop: mb tv: apple tv (debatable) look around...what's left for first mover advantage, if any?
Word on the street is Apple is looking to get AR up before Google does. We'll see how that plays out.....
Currently: future neurologist, current psychotherapist Previously: investor relations (top consulting firm), M&A consulting (Big 4), M&A banking (MM)
 

Hanging on for dear life as well...

Slimmed half of my position around the peak @ 700 but also bought in again on the way down around the high 500's and low 600's.

Honestly, the fundamentals are strong and it doesn't make sense that it's so cheap right now besides the fact that expectations are out of this world. And who knows how much of the dip is attributed to the fiscal cliff.

 
FutureBanker09:
blackthorne:
Shorted around 750 shorted again recently, going to buy to hold at some point. I've made more money shorting this stock than holding it

Wow shorting at 45 points higher than AAPL's peak, do you work at SAC?

Woops, meant 650. Damn phone. I'll leave it unchanged so your comment is still relevant.

 

Ugh, I'm holding on. I initially bought shares at 520, sold at 570 ish before it went on a huge climb to 700. Repurchased some shares at 568 and holding for the long haul.

The error of confirmation: we confirm our knowledge and scorn our ignorance.
 

I recently added some Feb. 2013 call options with a strike of $600. I also have kept my AAPL long positions. I think Apple will rebound strongly after the fiscal cliff is solved and the January earnings show the iPhone5 has sold 50+ million. Apple does not needs a new product in 2013 to keep its 20% year growth. The emerging markets are enough to keep the party going. Now, they would need a new product to continue the exponential growth. But, if they don't come up with something new, they just need to keep their iPhone/iPad product ahead of the curve to keep the stock growing. Let's face it, Apple products have one of the most loyal customers. I have an Android phone and also an iPod touch and I have to say, I like my iPod much better. Why? Apple keeps the OS of their product up to date. My Android phone has not been updated in a year. That is because the updates in Android are the responsibility of the carrier. Just recently I wanted to download an app to my cellphone and Google Play said the app does not work with the version of Android I have. I'll have to root my phone by hand, which I can do. But not everyone is tech "savvy". My iPod touch got updated with iOS6 the next day after Apple announced it.

 

I've been selling 16%-20% weekly otm puts on it for the past three weeks. It's been very profitable.

Because when you're in a room full of smart people, smart suddenly doesn't matter—interesting is what matters.
 
blackthorne:
ricky212:
I've been selling 16%-20% weekly otm puts on it for the past three weeks. It's been very profitable.

Wow are you short also or doing this naked?

Naked. I was not smart enough to short it also. Sure, I have been making pennies but there is less risk than owning it outright, as long as you don't get carried away of course.

Because when you're in a room full of smart people, smart suddenly doesn't matter—interesting is what matters.
 
Zafrynex:
ricky212:
I've been selling 16%-20% weekly otm puts on it for the past three weeks. It's been very profitable.

Except selling puts makes you LOSE money when the stock goes down as it did...

hurr...

LOL, good catch!

Snootchie Bootchies
 
Zafrynex:
ricky212:
I've been selling 16%-20% weekly otm puts on it for the past three weeks. It's been very profitable.

Except selling puts makes you LOSE money when the stock goes down as it did...

hurr...

What? You don't lose money on the puts if they expire worthless.

There is a great tutorial on options on WSO. You should check it out

Because when you're in a room full of smart people, smart suddenly doesn't matter—interesting is what matters.
 

below 500 in pre-market....where is it going from here? based on pure technical analysis it could get really ugly from here, on the other hand it doesn't make much sense given the good news from China...PE net of cash looks ridiculous now, I really don't get the sellers...

 
f4tality:
below 500 in pre-market....where is it going from here? based on pure technical analysis it could get really ugly from here, on the other hand it doesn't make much sense given the good news from China...PE net of cash looks ridiculous now, I really don't get the sellers...

Yeah..Citi downgraded late Sunday so pre-market is getting dragged down. Looks dirt cheap from a fundamental standpoint, but you're right, the technicals look really, really bad.

Still holding onto my position although I think I should stop looking at it for awhile since its recent short-term movements cause me stress...

 

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I hate victims who respect their executioners
 

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Because when you're in a room full of smart people, smart suddenly doesn't matter—interesting is what matters.

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