ROIC when stockholders' equity is negative
I wanted to pose this to the group to hear others' thinking on a real-life and theoretical issue.
NOPAT = $100
Debt = $500
Stockholders' Equity = $500
ROIC = 10%... simple.
If all of the SE is dividended out
NOPAT = $100
Debt = $500
Stockholders' Equity = $0
ROIC = 20%... simple
What if more than all of the SE is dividended out?
NOPAT = $100
Debt = $500
Stockholders' Equity = -$100
ROIC = ?
What is your answer and WHY? Does this make sense?
BTW, the answer is not "this isn't possible" or that this is a trick question. I'm looking at a company right now that has (essentially) this balance sheet and their reporting of ROIC stood out to me.
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What?
Nontarget, you are incorrect. When calculating ROIC you want to use book value of equity and debt, as these are measures of the dollars of investment that debt and equity holders have put into the business (whereas market value is the assessed valuation of those investments). For an alternate measure, one can also use tangible capital (PP&E + Net Working Capital + [other relevant investments]), which will not include (as much of) an impact from acquisition adjustments. I could go on for hours about the various potential issues that can affect even clean-looking ROIC calculations, but it isn't directly relevant for grosse's (excellent) question.
To grosse: this can certainly happen, and in fact should happen with any capital light business (think: tobacco, consumer staples, franchisor restaurants). Really the only thing that should keep these businesses' book equity positive are deals, which create new book equity.
The issue is that ROIC simply isn't that relevant a concept for capital light businesses. Return on invested capital is a useful model when your growth depends on putting more capital in the ground. For instance, opening new physical restaurants, building new factories, etc. But when a business does not actually use capital to grow (e.g., price increases, new franchise licences, etc.), the ROIC approach just isn't that relevant. The amount of capital "in the ground" has only the loosest of relationships with the size of the business, and thus the accounting system just doesn't give you very meaningful answers. The classic example: if the fund you work at bought new office space and equipment with retained profits, doubling the book equity invested in the fund, would you expect its profits to double as well?
To walk through what is technically happening: debt holders care about cash flow, which is growing without new capital investment (or with trivial capital investment). As the cash flows grow, the business can take on more debt, of course, but the book value of equity does not have to rise, as no earnings need be retained. However, the accounting statement "thinks" that the business has not grown, and thus "interprets" the payout of the dividend as a liquidation, rather than a distribution of gains. For this reason, the accounting statements just can't "handle" the situation. Accounting statements were born in an era of heavy industry; the idea of "capital light" just wasn't that relevant, and thus we have an accounting system that isn't well calibrated for such businesses. It is a limitation of accounting that you have run into, and one that might not ever be fully dealt with using a three statement approach.
So when you see negative equity for the reason you described, the answer is "this business does not use capital to grow and therefore ROIC is not a relevant metric for the business." Note that there are some other ways to think about ROIC. For instance, you can look at the ROIC of a "franchise system" as a whole, including the invested capital of the franchisees. If you can find or estimate that number, then that ROIC number will inform you of the health and growth prospects of the entire system of restaurants, which does have an impact on the future profitability of the franchisor.
EDIT: One additional thought. This scenario can also occur if there is capital invested in the business, but the return on that capital is extremely high. The logic is the same: cash flows are growing much faster than book equity, permitting the business to take on debt and pay out more than book equity.
Tobacco companies are a great example of here, they produce a ton of cash and pay it out shareholders. PM has negative book value, LO was negative before they were acquired, and MO has very little book equity. RAI has a lot of book value after writing up the LO intangibles/goodwill.
Great, well thought-out responses. But...
The company in question is NEFF. They rent construction equipment. This is VERY CAPITAL INTENSIVE business, ROIC is a very important metric, and industry ROIC is not particularly high.
What happened here: In the years leading up to the IPO, NEFF's owners raised new debt to repay old debt and pay themselves some very large dividends. Stockholders' equity went negative... Debt is > Assets.
Why would a lender allow such a crazy thing? Because they believe the book value of assets is not relevant; that those assets and this business will be able to generate enough cash to service and payoff the debt. This goes to what Non-Target was likely trying to say.
Now, knowing all this and that ROIC should be very relevant measure, what do you think about their reporting of ROIC as NOPAT divided by (essentially) debt minus the stockholders' deficit?
I will give you my two cents: Equity is what's left over after debt holders claims are paid. Here, in a bankruptcy the debtholders wouldn't be covered (when thinking in terms of book values). But we know that the Equity holders (with a deficit) would never be called upon to make the debtholders whole.
This is where the ROIC formula falls short in this situation. Reducing invested capital by the shareholders' deficit implies that there is invested capital "owed" to the company, but this is certainly not the case.
In my judgement, the denominator of invested capital should be (Debt + Positive Shareholders' Equity). This would then show a larger denominator for NEFF versus what they report.
Thoughts?
Grosse, that's an interesting scenario. It lines up with my thesis that with any sufficiently high return business can generate negative shareholders equity if they are aggressive about taking on debt and paying out dividends. There are two solutions to this issue, I think. The first, ratking's, is excellent: use (PP&E + NWC + [Software/R&D/other investments]) as your denominator, and avoid the headache altogether.
The second, sticking with [debt + equity], seems trickier. I'm going to try to think it through using an example/argument, in which I assume a ROIC on incremental investment, and see how it ties with book debt and equity numbers:
My argument here feels somewhat tautological, but I think walking through these steps helped solidify my intuition. Have I missed anything here?
If they go out and buy a new machine w/ $400 in cash, cash goes down and book value of machine goes up by $400. This doesn't have an effect on Retained Earnings at all, right? The only way it would effect book value of equity is if new shares are sold. Retained earnings would go up by the 80 of NOPAT minus depreciation assuming no dividend.
Doesn't really take away from the example either way.
Did not read all the responses but....
Maybe use the other side of the balance sheet (NWC+Net Fixed Assets)? If EBIT is positive then this should resolve the issues with Stockholders Equity being negative.
You can also run the metric including goodwill and intangibles to get a sense of how efficient mgmt. has been in allocating capital if they are acquisitive. Excluding the intangibles gives a truer sense of the operating metrics of the business IMO.
Shouldn't you just look at ROCE (which is what ratking is saying)? The implication of your scenario is that the company's balance sheet is suboptimal. If you go back to the original post, your debt is unchanged, whilst equity decreases (which means excess capital i.e. cash on balance sheet is being paid out via dividend).
When you hold tons of excess cash, ROIC will be lower than the true returns on productive assets because IC is inflated, so ROIC increases as you pay out cash (just think of the reverse scenario - imagine if you just raised equity to keep cash on balance sheet - ROIC would decrease but doesn't mean the assets have become less productive). If (per your follow up), the company raises debt to pay out shareholders' equity as cash, then the IC part of your ROIC doesn't change.
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