I still think that Rubio and Romney would make a solid ticket. Donald is a shit show and Romney is looking like a goddamn voice of reason speaking from the sidelines. Romney has a lot of one thing Rubio is lacking (money) and Rubio has an advantage Romney doesn't (Catholic). Not to mention, that twosome would have some of the most amazing "Presidential Hair" since Kennedy.

The only reason Hillary looks as good as she does is because the GOP is a hot mess right now. How small the gap is between Clinton and Sanders is quite telling when there is zero reason for her not to be crushing him as the "assumed democratic candidate".

 

I strongly believe that this place is overestimating Hillary's chances in the general election, mainly due to Obama's supreme campaigns winning states like Virginia and North Carolina. IMO, it is reasonable to say that Trump will win against Clinton in the general election. I doubt that Hillary can have as much success as Obama did in terms of getting high voter turnouts from minorities, women, and others in the Democratic base. On the other hand, I believe that Trump will get the working class white vote and mobilize a higher voter turnout to win states like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and maybe even Nevada and Colorado.

 
Best Response
Postgradwonderer:

I strongly believe that this place is overestimating Hillary's chances in the general election, mainly due to Obama's supreme campaigns winning states like Virginia and North Carolina. IMO, it is reasonable to say that Trump will win against Clinton in the general election. I doubt that Hillary can have as much success as Obama did in terms of getting high voter turnouts from minorities, women, and others in the Democratic base. On the other hand, I believe that Trump will get the working class white vote and mobilize a higher voter turnout to win states like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and maybe even Nevada and Colorado.

We're also missing something else: Trump is likely to win over significant chunks of support from unionized Democrats, who have long associated the Clintons with NAFTA and outsourcing. That and black voters.....for reasons that are difficult to explain unless you understand black culture( in my case, one of my mentors comes from old-school black culture). Best way I can put it is to say that not tolerating bullshit is a prequisite for respect in that world. Actions like throwing out protesters are viewed as strength(you're protecting your "house") whereas the pseudo-intellectual discussions pundits love are viewed as "nerd shit".

The big surprise for me was how many hispanics have voted for him.

 
one_bigass_spider:
Postgradwonderer:

I strongly believe that this place is overestimating Hillary's chances in the general election, mainly due to Obama's supreme campaigns winning states like Virginia and North Carolina. IMO, it is reasonable to say that Trump will win against Clinton in the general election. I doubt that Hillary can have as much success as Obama did in terms of getting high voter turnouts from minorities, women, and others in the Democratic base. On the other hand, I believe that Trump will get the working class white vote and mobilize a higher voter turnout to win states like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and maybe even Nevada and Colorado.

We're also missing something else: Trump is likely to win over significant chunks of support from unionized Democrats, who have long associated the Clintons with NAFTA and outsourcing. That and black voters.....for reasons that are difficult to explain unless you understand black culture( in my case, one of my mentors comes from old-school black culture). Best way I can put it is to say that not tolerating bullshit is a prequisite for respect in that world. Actions like throwing out protesters are viewed as strength(you're protecting your "house") whereas the pseudo-intellectual discussions pundits love are viewed as "nerd shit".

The big surprise for me was how many hispanics have voted for him.

You don't have to explain that much to me, I come from an immigrant family so I am not exactly your typical PC white yuppie who is completely out of touch with what you're talking about. A lot of military guys and working class whites have somewhat of a similar attitude.

I can see Trump doing better with black and Hispanic voters compared to Romney in 2012 which isn't really saying that much, Trump might win around 15% of the black vote at best IMO (don't buy the 25% people keep throwing around). The truth is that Hillary will win over black voters and voters of minority groups quite convincingly but I doubt she will get the amount of turnout that Obama did in 2008 and 2012 to counteract the higher disgruntled white voter turnout that will lean towards Trump. Hillary needs the high black voter turnout in order to win key swing states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

First of all, this is how 270 to win sees the election where it stands between Trump and Clinton:

http://www.270towin.com/polling-maps/bMcf

This is how I see it playing out:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MlBG4

Due to the high Hispanic populations, I see Hillary taking Nevada and Colorado.

Don't buy the hype about Pennsylvania, it is a solidly blue state.

 

Can see that. The biggest advantage Trump will have in this race is the huge amount of media attention it will draw...namely, that Hillary's favorable ratings are inversely proportional to her media exposure. It's going to be intense.

 

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