Safest job in finance/business?

so i really am interested in finance but all i want is a "safe" job related to finance. The current financial crisis is making me squeamish about going into the finance field as I know many people who can't find jobs. I might end up going to medical school because of this. But i'm not sure where to look to the "safest" jobs. Obviously I want a nice salary and I want a job that requires teamwork (teamwork is the biggest thing I would like in my job). Maybe something a bit interesting but I know that beggars can't be choosers. upwards mobility would be nice.

where should I look?

 
theBEEGEES:
Canadian Bank.

Truest thing said yet.

‎"Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to become the means by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of other men. Blood, whips and guns or dollars."
 
bob thesun:
accounting seems pretty dull. Is it just filling out tax forms, etc.

The safest jobs are usually the most boring. Do you think an exciting and well paid position is going to be safe? Those jobs have huge amounts of competition which makes you easily replaceable. You are only "safe" in finance if you kick ass at what you do and can find another job quickly if your ship goes down.

 

accounting can be pretty dull, but given the parameters of your search it is the definitive answer.

Go to a target accounting school (there is a group of maybe 10 that are nationally recruited). Or just kick ass at any decent business school if you're willing to stay local. Then get Big 4 experience and your CPA. You could do something interesting after the Big 4, but most go F500 or some traditional route. Those routes are very safe and will typically yield 45-50 hour work weeks and $100k salary at 30 (assuming normal progression).

I didn't exactly follow the above route, but also didn't deviate dramatically. I have never filled out a tax form. Auditing isn't a TON better, but it is slightly better. However, out of auditing you have nearly unlimited options.

twitter: @CorpFin_Guy
 

If you're debating between finance and medical school you need to take a step back and re-evaluate what you want to do because those two could not be further apart. You sound indecisive and should think about the risks inherent in either profession and whether you'll find fulfillment in either of them based your personality, goals, etc.

People tend to think life is a race with other people. They don't realize that every moment they spend sprinting towards the finish line is a moment they lose permanently, and a moment closer to their death.
 

Oh and don't go into medicine for the money or the glory because you will be SORELY disappointed.

People tend to think life is a race with other people. They don't realize that every moment they spend sprinting towards the finish line is a moment they lose permanently, and a moment closer to their death.
 

BO at a BB, most people there lack intelligence (and college degrees). You will look like a star, comparatively and they rarely fire anyone. The only real threat of staff layoff there is from a merger or acquisition, and I do not foresee any of those within the remaining US BB anytime soon.

I think you would be really disappointed after about one month though, with the monotony. Plus, accepting a job because you hope you will not get fired is the wrong temperament. Gain some confidence and go find something you will enjoy.

 

if you're looking for the safest job in finance you may want to reevaluate getting into finance to begin with. As with alot of things in like low risk equals low reward and vice versa. You can have a safe low/ok paying job (back office) and last longer than having a volatile pressure filled front office job, but in major downturns back office gets the deepest and widest cuts. Front office (as long as you produce) may be riskier but you get paid for it. and if you're a producer you will find other people to hire you.

It almost sounds like you want to be in the corner and not in the spotlight. Keep in mind, out of sight out of mind.

"I'm tapped out Marv. American Express has got a hit man lookin' for me." - Bud Fox
 
mfoste1:
accounting is surely not safe. i have a buddy who works at deloitte auditing ,has worked there for 4 years. He is the last one at his office left from his entry class of 18 employees....

The Big 4 has been cutting back in personnel a little, especially on the junior levels. However, hiring is expected to pick back up within the next five years as IFRS incorporation gets closer. If you get your CPA and gain the relevant experience, you are pretty much set. But being an accounting major myself, I just could not get myself to sign on that dotted line and making 50K a year verifying numbers... but that's just me.

 

can vouch for accounting being a safe option, especially starting in the big 4.

in the case of your buddy being the only remaining person in his class....it is true there were layoffs following the worst economic collapse in decades, but i would bet that 100% of the people who left involuntairly and voluntarily are in solid positions paying more than what they would have made by staying, and with less hours. remember, most people who start out of college only last 2-3 years. on the same note, accounting is only so interesting/exciting, and offers little chance to make the type of cash you can pull on some finance tracks.

 

For something slightly more bearable than accounting but related to finance think a finance officer position in any F500 company. So long as you can handle working capital and quantifying everything its fairly secure and you'll be working in teams much of the time.

Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art - Andy Warhol
 

Or if you can find a position, large companies usually have internal hedge funds where they invest their own money. Much more conducive to a balanced life from what I've heard.

Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art - Andy Warhol
 

Once you have CPA and Big 4 experience you will always have a job...it might not be an interesting job, it might not be a well paid job (relatively speaking) but you will always have a job.

But I must say looking for a "safe" job is the most pussy assed pathetic job search criteria I have ever seen on here......you would prob make a good accountant.

 
Maherj1:
Once you have CPA and Big 4 experience you will always have a job...it might not be an interesting job, it might not be a well paid job (relatively speaking) but you will always have a job.

But I must say looking for a "safe" job is the most pussy assed pathetic job search criteria I have ever seen on here......you would prob make a good accountant.

That is a pretty nonsensical response. What if you have a family or don't care to kill your self to make a few extra bucks? Not everyone wants the same thing out of a job, think before you write buddy.

 
leveRAGE.:
Getgo:
contrary to what people think, the turnover in accounting firms is like the same at McDonalds. no joke

its gotta be pretty difficult to get fired from McDonalds...

Turnover is both voluntary and involuntary. Hundreds of thousands quit McDs every year.

‎"Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to become the means by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of other men. Blood, whips and guns or dollars."
 

in a normal market and job environment, turnover at the big 4 is 90-95% voluntary. people leave for better money, better work, and better pay. even when the job market was at its worst, i routinely watched people leave for jobs paying 20-25% more and less hours. I get linkedin messages from brand name, well-known F500 company recruiters on a weekly basis looking to speak with me about an opening they have. granted, you will make substantially less cash going this route.

 
CDNmonkey:
Deutsche is rescinding offers, just like every other bank.

deutsche hasnt rescinded any offers...from what i heard, their summer offer rate was like 25-30% to begin with and they did not do any full time recruiting i believe (for IBD)...please dont make sh*t up

 

UBS - recently had their "bloodbath" Citi - ditto on the bloodbath, M&A got hit hard JPM - announced the headcount reduction CS - let go analysts as well DB - let go of analysts during the summer in the US; haven't heard anything recently Macquarie - layoffs

safest places..HL - restructuring, LAZ - restructuring, etc. you get the idea. but HL/Laz cut ppl as well. Although Jefferies was hiring ppl they still let go of their of associates/analysts/MDs/etc.

there's no telling which place is safe or not. barcap does annual headcount reduction as well. I would guess that it is the safest place but since they acquired lehman's banking ops, they cut their own teams as well. at this point in time, they look to be safe. But they could be the next ticking time bomb. its not a good time to be a banker.

it doesn't make much sense guessing which bank is safer than the next. I remember people saying that bear will be safe because it already is pretty lean but then the entire firm went under.

you can't go through this process predicting which bank will let ppl go next or which is the least likely to. Until this market clears up, every bank is going to be doing rolling layoffs.

All you can do is bust your ass so that YOU don't get laid off.

------------ I'm making it up as I go along.
 
Cornelius:
UBS - recently had their "bloodbath" Citi - ditto on the bloodbath, M&A got hit hard JPM - announced the headcount reduction CS - let go analysts as well DB - let go of analysts during the summer in the US; haven't heard anything recently Macquarie - layoffs

safest places..HL - restructuring, LAZ - restructuring, etc. you get the idea. but HL/Laz cut ppl as well. Although Jefferies was hiring ppl they still let go of their of associates/analysts/MDs/etc.

there's no telling which place is safe or not. barcap does annual headcount reduction as well. I would guess that it is the safest place but since they acquired lehman's banking ops, they cut their own teams as well. at this point in time, they look to be safe. But they could be the next ticking time bomb. its not a good time to be a banker.

it doesn't make much sense guessing which bank is safer than the next. I remember people saying that bear will be safe because it already is pretty lean but then the entire firm went under.

you can't go through this process predicting which bank will let ppl go next or which is the least likely to. Until this market clears up, every bank is going to be doing rolling layoffs.

All you can do is bust your ass so that YOU don't get laid off.

When did you hear of CS letting go of analysts and in what groups? Associates, VPs and a few MDs got the axe (mainly 3rd year associates + VPs), but I don't know of any analysts who've gotten cut.
 

worry about getting a job before worrying about which bank is safe.

the mood around the floor (I'm S&T) is absolutely doomed. Stop dreaming about 'safe haven' no such thing. This dude at Citi, who trades Auto, made $100mil+ pnl. Was called to the office, told "you will leave us in Jan anyways (after bonus) so we'll let you go now"

A friend at JPM told me that they axed 35-40% of equity division in Asia just 2 days ago. Sorry honey, no turkey for us.

there's hardly a talk of bonus. keeping your job is matter of survival, but take this, no one is safe.

 

It just makes sense. Upcoming analysts are not currently costing the firm anything. As for current analysts: keep the outstanding ones and trim the fat. Banks are going to want to have a stable of analysts ready for when the market turns around (this would be the upcoming 09 analysts).

In BOA's case though I wouldn't say that joining in 09 is a better bet than joining anywhere else. Although I am not certain, I assume both Merrill and BOA had made offers to SA's for 09. I can't imagine all offers would be honored?! What do you guys think? Did Merrill even finish out FT recruiting?

 

If you are an '09 1st year at BOA, you'll have a bit more of a safety net given the increased deal flow.

Merrill did 0 FT recruiting this year, while BOA did quite a bit. And since BOA is one of the few firms hiring in such a tough market, you can be sure that the caliber of those analysts at least rivals those of ML. Expect more cuts on the ML side IMO.

 

Merrill Lynch guys are basically going to be running the Investment Banking, S&T, and Research operations, so I'm not sure how one can think current and incoming BofA people are safer than Merrill kids.

I honestly don't know what they are going to do about their 2 incoming classes -- large number of people combined during a time of slow deal flow. Given this, it makes no sense to me why BofA would hire during FT recruiting, knowing there will need to be some resolution with the ML class.

 

"Merrill did 0 FT recruiting this year, while BOA did quite a bit. And since BOA is one of the few firms hiring in such a tough market, you can be sure that the caliber of those analysts at least rivals those of ML. Expect more cuts on the ML side IMO."

I would argue against that. Someone who had an offer at GS, MS, etc, would not be fighting to get into B of A, despite the merger. Yes, they had stronger applicants, but these were the people who didn't get returning offers at their firms or were at lower institutions; B of A/Merrill was a move up. Why would they "at least rival ML analysts?"

 

i guess he's right, two years out from now if markets have not strongly rebounded, basically every single current fund will be underwater, there will be fewer deals etc. so lots of people are going to get laid off.

even without that, a lot of the less established, smaller firms will disappear in the current cycle

as for guy hands, his firm is toast, due to a 1.5B pound bet on EMI and a couple others ones on the airline industry. word is things are so bad some LPs are shopping stakes in fund III for free (if you are willing to fund the remaining commitments). so maybe his perspective is a bit darker than most people's. Also this would be a great time for him to finally shut up. When all is said and done, not sure he still ranks among the "10% that are money makers", given his recent blowups...

 

No doubt that many of the mega funds beefed up their ranks in preparation of what they expected to be heavy deal flow and those rosters will have to be thinned if things don't turn around soon. Junior guys probably don't have to worry as much because they usually leave for B-school and unlike banking, their comp is usually not largely tied to performance, but are paid out of overhead from the management fees. I'd say the ones that should be worried are the post-MBA associates, VP's and principals at the biggest funds.

That being said, everyone keeps saying that the mega funds were wrong to drum up giant war chests in 2007, because now they have all this dry powder they need to put to work. While I agree there is the implicit pressure to put capital to work, it's not like IRR's are going down the longer they wait to put capital to work. IRR's are only computed on capital drawn down and then return, not unused. And the bigger the fund, the more management fees they get, so they can afford to keep more employees on staff, especially at the junior level. So the only performance pressure they're feeling is that once there is a rebound in deal activity they have to dig themselves out of a bigger hole from the initial J-curve to make up for the drag on net IRR they've created from the fees.

But going back to the subject in the article - probably not too much thinning of the ranks. Middle market firms are still running between 20 and 35 employees, they've always been relatively thin, and they'll be fine. The employees who will be getting paid less will actually be the senior guys - they have the most carry in the fund and with less monetizations of portfolio companies they'll see less cash coming their way as a result.

As to RE_Banker's comment about LP's in liquidity crunches right now, it's no secret that there are several high profile LP's facing margin calls from their public equity investments. Just look at the activity in the secondary market - LP's are dumping private equity investments right and left to drum up cash. Like I said in another post, it's a great time to be a FoF player right now...

 

Don't believe all of the doom and gloom that you read in the WSJ. The mega-funds are certainly getting hit incredibly hard and are suffering as a result. These are the players that get the most attention, but you can't define the entire industry by looking at only the top 10 players. Remember, there are thousands of private equity firms out there, the majority of which operate in the middle market. I've heard dozens of middle market private equity firms give their "firm introductions" and the one message that comes out of most of them is: "We seek to use a prudent amount of leverage for transactions." While incredibly high leverage is one way to maximize returns, it is only one method that PE firms use to generate high IRRs.

Where am I going with this? Well, a lot of PE firms take the approach of buying up companies at extremely low valuations rather than purchasing them at a premium in an auction conducted by an investment bank. In fact, the deals where I've seen PE firms make the most money are the ones where they negotiated a private deal at 4-5x EBITDA and then a year later hired us to sell the same company at 10-11x EBITDA. While current market conditions make it extremely difficult to sell these companies at a premium, a PE fund is NOT a short term investment vehicle. These funds can have lives of over 10 years, plenty of time to wait out a market downturn.

Without a doubt there is going to be a bit of a shake-up in the PE industry. For the most part, I believe they will escape unscathed. Sure, earnings will be down as company performance tanks in the short term, but the impact will fall far short of what is hitting the likes of investment banks.

Also, as GameTheory mentioned, PE firms are already incredibly lean organizations. There just isn't much room for cutting jobs in MM PE. Paychecks will take a hit and hiring may slow, but you won't see a ton of PE professionals out on the street with hats in their hands.

~~~~~~~~~~~ CompBanker

CompBanker’s Career Guidance Services: https://www.rossettiadvisors.com/
 

Compbanker -- I hold the same view as you regarding MM PE...I worked at one for 3 years pre-business school and my old firm is doing fine.

mega-funds that depend on a ton of leverage to generate returns obviously are at a disadvantage in this market. Smaller players that have traditionally have not used a lot of leverage to finance their transactions (or in certain cases don't use any debt at all -- "growth equity") will keep doing what they have been doing. Will it be harder to find deals? yes. Can they still generate decent returns? i don't see why not.

 

Most people forget that most funds have a 10 year investment horizon with 3, 1-year extension periods. 13 years to put your capital to work is plenty of times to ride out a recession and find new deals.

I even know of companies who were held for 8 years or so in one fund and bought by the next fund of the same shop, then sold at an even bigger multiple 5 years later (a 13 year hold at a 4-5x CoC return).

 

Thanks for the great input. I like to play devils advocate to get opinions and my views are not as sharp as Guy Hands'. I work at a firm that does both IB and PE and I have exposure to both, but I am still young. I wasn't necessarily worried about my job so much as the future of the industry.

My questions: Don't you think that the management fee structure is going to change soon. It's hard to justify to your next funds LPs that you want to charge 2% of funds managed a year even though your last fund haemorrhaged cash to keep the portfolio companies afloat and your IRRs were below 5%. As well, LP's that do get pressure put on them now to be drawn down will not want to invest in the next fund of that firm because they will remember if they had to scrape together the cash that could be better used in the current environment (they are much longer term investors). I understand that they committed and are obligated, but a bad rep on the street can be detrimental to a firms health.

 

Also, to your comment on FoF's, I'm not sure they will have longevity as well as they are just fees on fees. I can see how they can be useful for Real Estate, but not for regular private equity. For example, most pensionfund are run by a handful of people and therefore they don't have the capabilities of analysing real estate private equity vehicles around the world, and many of the institutional investors like geographic specific funds (and also specialist operators but that's not as important). They let a FoF do the legwork and provide the extra fees, but I don't think that is the case for corporate private equity (unless I am mistaken). Many funds have a global mandate and so the benefits of using FoF start to diminish. I mean, isn't the PE firm trying to diversify the fund in the first place as well?

 

In regards to the fee structure, you may be right that there may be future downward pressure on fees. Fees have become more and more LP-friendly over the course of the last decade and given the recent trends, I doubt that will change anytime soon. However, like I mentioned in another thread, many 2001 vintage funds and upwards have minimum IRR's built into their fund structure, usually in the neighborhood of 9%, and that's net of fees, so the 2 and 20 structure is really not as detrimental as one might expect. I do agree that given the liquidity crunch many LP's are currently facing, any future fund raising will go to the cream of the crop and any newcomers will have to give on fee structure, whether it be in terms of management fees, carry, and how that is allocated (committed capital vs. drawn capital, etc.).

Along those same lines, the minimum IRR is exactly why I think FoF's are poised to make incredible returns as bigger LP's are selling off perfectly positions in funds at a discount in order to get liquidity to fund their impending margin calls based on their public equity positions.

 

I disagree that there will be downward pressure on fees. Yes, few funds will be generating high IRRs this year. However, you have to look at the benchmark. The stock market is in the absolute crapper and people have watched 50% of their investments in the market evaporate. PE firms continue to outperform the broader market by a very significant margin, in both the good times and the bad. Performance might be negative this year, but I can put together a solid case why on a risk adjusted basis PE firms have performed well and earned their keep.

~~~~~~~~~~~ CompBanker

CompBanker’s Career Guidance Services: https://www.rossettiadvisors.com/
 

Quae alias rerum consequuntur vero voluptas voluptas neque. Facere ab et vitae beatae modi.

Aspernatur aut et laudantium et dolores et. Deserunt minima asperiores ut dolore dolorum sunt dolor expedita. Non qui consectetur rem nisi explicabo. Sapiente sunt et ipsa est.

 

Quis quis voluptas fugiat vitae enim. Aut aut aspernatur quos accusantium. Neque est eligendi culpa velit fuga fugit minima. Tenetur quidem dolor dolor saepe soluta. At velit laborum quaerat enim voluptas velit. Esse mollitia molestias illo et debitis sed. Voluptatibus et ut earum occaecati in sed.

Placeat ea nesciunt aliquam porro placeat. Sed voluptatibus consequuntur id voluptatem animi. Cumque reiciendis nesciunt non non doloribus qui porro. Enim sunt earum aspernatur officia accusamus sit ullam. Sed sed in tenetur suscipit quae aut. Molestias qui architecto ut.

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
6
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
9
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
10
numi's picture
numi
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”