Analyst Recommendations

Question: do you think all these analyst ratings that are produced to be worth any weight?

My take: they're mostly self-fulfilling prophecies. An analyst issues a sell rating for $X, the sheep in the market react and eventually bring the actual price down to $X. Next day, or a few days later another analyst issues a buy or hold rating, sheep react accordingly. What's the point? Some analysts look at fundamentals and others technicals (some maybe both), the ratings become subjective rather than objective, hence moving the stock price. It's an endless cycle, unless the company itself actually provides relevant information about a M&A, or new business venture, I believe that is something worth moving the stock price for, but not ratings.

TLDR; do you place any weight on analyst ratings of stocks? If so, why?

 
Best Response

I agree that analysts can have a minor impact on the market. But I'm not sure if investors who rely on analysts stick around when things get rough. I can't say whether all analysts ratings are worth their weight or not. I just know we - as investors - are only as good as the management tools that work for us. What I've observed is that regardless of what any "expert" says, we tend to make emotional decisions about when to buy and sell, and even how much to buy. Early on, I was more likely to buy more of what I was excited about. So if an analyst is preaching and I'm the choir, I'm ore likely to lose..

While I do keep an eye on ratings, I've noticed that I tend to do better when I buy more of what I find boring or unexciting … and also buy just the right amount of speculative opportunities.

What works better for me is looking at historic volatility. Less volatile investments get more of my money and more volatile investments get enough of my money to get me in the game.

 

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