The Immediate Effects of Drafting an Offensive Lineman in the First Round
Back in 2011, the Dallas Cowboys were coming off of a season in which they finished 6-10. The defense had allowed more points than any other in the NFC, and they were begging for a competent running back. The team drafted tackle Tyron Smith ninth overall.
Two years later, things still weren't popping in Big 'D'. So, of course, they traded out of the 18th overall pick and selected center Travis Frederick at 31. Troll so hard.
Now, they would never do this for a third time, right? Especially with the most Jerry Jones selection ever in Johnny Manziel on the board, right? Wrong. Out pops lineman Zack Martin, severely lacking in swag and slammin' pre-game parties. Do they even want to win?
Is this a coincidence that the Cowboys' success came after drafting three offensive linemen in the first round over the course of four years? Or is this common for teams that are seduced by the size? Because of this fun little thing called data, we can find out.
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And that o-line still couldn't beat the Packers...
It was all because of the referees!
Side-note: I'm a Lions fan and found it extremely funny that according to Dallas, they won the game against Detroit because they played so well, but lost to the Packers because of the referees.
I read somewhere last week that the referee who threw the pass interference flag because of contact. However the issue is that the flag has to be initally thrown for the foul committed. They can't change the penalty to a different one.
I've always said that if I were building a football team I'd spend a disproportionate amount of time, money, and draft picks on top offensive and defensive linemen and go with an average everything else. There are few great QBs and RBS when the offensive line can't pass or run block. But give an average QB time in the pocket and he'll perform well. Open gaping holes for your average RB and he'll run through 'em.
So as a former 1AA Offensive Lineman I can say that the biggest immediate ROI as well as the most minimal downside is drafting offensive lineman. Also, the difference between a 1st round Center and a 6th round center is 100% identifiable. Lets elaborate.
Im terms of technique and strength the position is very cerebral and bad technique is easy to spot within 5 min of game film. Also at a position like left tackle for instance lets look at big 1st round draft picks on the last several years. Tyrone Smith, Joe Thomas, and Jake Long. Its easy to side by side them with Matt Soldier and say who is better.
At a position like center lets look at the Steelers. Pouncey is one of the top 2/3 centers in the game. Ppl always like so say that the steelers lose when Polamolu is out.. but go back to the year when pouncey missed almost the whole season... i dont even think they made the playoffs.
Compared to skilled position players there is overall very little difference between college and nfl. If anything its easier physically as the game becomes much nore cerebral.
I can tell you that if you bate a defensive end for a draw/screen in high school its like rolling a dice to see what the defender will do as they are not football savy and probably just the kid at the school playing the spot. HS sports is where offensive lineman are 200 lbs and arent coached well (by and large). Lets assign a 15-20% chance you can anticipate someone's move or reaction. Lets fast forward to college. No more 200 lb defensive tackles now its 300-400 lb defensive tackles and 6'5" D-ends who are strong AND coached well. So if you bate a shoulder anc open a hip there is probably a 30-40% chance they take it, a 15% chance they dont realizie it and the remainder going to them recognizing the play and seeing the bigger picture. The NFL accelerates this even higher as these people are professionals. The reason everyone always talks about Peytons play action motions and different fakes is because in a system you HAVE to respect the motion.
A backside defensive end in high school... WILL NOT keep deepest-to-deepest back shoulder contain. College they probably will. NFL they are pretty much going to.
So to get back to my point there is less upside in picking an offensive lineman as they wont be an Aaron Rodgers... but there is less downside of them being a Jimmy Clauson. And the difference between a 5th and 1st round lineman is significan .
Other factors played into it, but the Browns offense was drastically worse when center Alex Mack was lost for the year.
I think the cowboys biggest problem is the fact that it's Jerry Jones' reich, and he's clearly not great at it.
side note: I'm a Packers fan, and I appreciate all of the debate about the call. for the record, I think you give the catch to Dez Bryant, but I also think you don't call PI on Tramon (which lead to a Dallas TD).
and by the way, anyone remember what team it was that got fucked against the Seahawks when we had the replacement refs? oh yeah...
hoping for a good Sunday now, GO PACK GO
As a Cowboys fan, I can tell you I am a little bitter about the call mostly cuz that rule just does not make sense. Besides, we had a lot of opportunities to win that game and we didn't. Pack played the better game and good luck to Rodgers playing at Century Link.
Back to the 'Boys, this has been a great season for us. People picked us to win anywhere from 4 to 6 games and we changed that on its head and won 12 and a playoff game. Also, we played the better game at Lambeau when everyone expected us to get blown out. The window is not closing for the Cowboys, it is as open as it will ever be. we are one of the youngest teams in the league with an O-line that should last us a few years, skill position players that can outplay any defense and young defensive stars like McClain, Hitchens and D Law. Need to draft another offensive line stud to replace Free at some point, draft a 310 lb DT stud and an athletic CB. Get rid of Weeden, promote my West Texas boy to backup and we are good. Also we are entering the season with $13 mil in cap space and Romo is 35 which isn't very old in the league anymore. We got a window of 3-5 years, we gotta take advantage.
Also let me tell you there is nothing Jerry Jones wants more in life than to win a SB without Jimmy Johnson. NOTHING. He has repeatedly said if he could buy a ring, he would. These couple of seasons Jerry is going to put everything around us to win and WIN NOW. Barring injuries and the dramatic(which seems to follow us around), I expect us to make some deep runs in the next couple of years.
If you leave the game up to the refs then you are doomed for the start. If the cowboys didnt miss field goals that call would have been irrelevant. If they didnt turn the ball over it would have been irrelevant.
Moral of the story, control what you can and don't count on calls going your way.
1st round O-lineman have a lot more consistency than other positions and a more immediate positive impact. You pretty much know you're going to get something between an above average O-lineman and a perennial pro bowler. That being said, one good O-lineman doesn't have the power to transform a team the same way Manning/Rodgers/Luck/pre-child beating AP can, but the majority of QB's and RB's that get drafted in the 1st round end up being busts.
So in Wall Street terms:
QB's and RB's: Are VC style investments where that one 10 bagger makes up for the 9 other shitty start-ups you invested in. You may have to wait quite a few years for these investments to pay off, either because they suck in the beginning, or because you'd rather sell a few more Brett Favre jerseys than start Rodgers.
O-lineman: Are the boring cash cows of the investment world.
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