The Next Generation

It seems that the Bulge Bracket, as useless of a term that it is, drastically changes quite frequently. In my lifetime, Lehman, Bear, Salomon, First Boston, and DLJ all went under. Any thoughts on which of the current BBs will be the next to go? What will the club look like in 5 years?

 

I think that the current "bracket" will look the same for a long time. Mainly due to stricter regulation and monitoring by the Fed and governments. After what happened with Lehman going under, I doubt the government will let that happen again. I think a lot has changed in banking, I mean really there are only two true investment banks left (American that is) that are BB. In my mind anyways, these large banks will remain at the top for a long time.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
 
Best Response
turtles:
It seems that the Bulge Bracket, as useless of a term that it is, drastically changes quite frequently. In my lifetime, Lehman, Bear, Salomon, First Boston, and DLJ all went under. Any thoughts on which of the current BBs will be the next to go? What will the club look like in 5 years?

The Club

Big 5: JP Morgan, DB, GS, MS, Barcap

UBS, IB division spin-off planned until 2012 BoA Merill Lynch, weak position Credit Suisse plans to reduce its IB division, no spin-off planned

In the USA there is currently no Investment Bank, since GS and MS lost their IB-law status.

 
HedgeTed:
In the USA there is currently no Investment Bank, since GS and MS lost their IB-law status.
I still count them in: my guess is that they will again change their status when it is convenient to do so.....
Get busy living
 
UFOinsider:
HedgeTed:
In the USA there is currently no Investment Bank, since GS and MS lost their IB-law status.
I still count them in: my guess is that they will again change their status when it is convenient to do so.....

I agree, even thought they are not technically IBs, they do not hold deposits such as other BB banks like Citi or JPMC, etc

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
 
streetwannabe:
UFOinsider:
HedgeTed:
In the USA there is currently no Investment Bank, since GS and MS lost their IB-law status.
I still count them in: my guess is that they will again change their status when it is convenient to do so.....

I agree, even thought they are not technically IBs, they do not hold deposits such as other BB banks like Citi or JPMC, etc

And there's that fun word - "technically" - given that GS's CEO is a lawyer......
Get busy living
 

If you think ANY of these banks are going anywhere then you haven't been following the news close enough. Bernanke all but admitted that the current BBs are too big to fail in his last press conference. Too big to fail really means too big to fail, it isn't just the title of an HBO drama.

 

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