1.) I'd invest in Comp A since there must be a (positive) reason why Comp A still trades at 10x P/E despite having much smaller margins than its competitor.

2.) Market Leader, EBITDA Margins, revenue growth rates, scandals, customer fragmentation, etc.

3.) CapEx needs to get depreciated, hence a larger CapEx balance will be reflected by a larger depreciation expense. In this sense, what the interviewer was probably looking for was that you would use EV/EBITDA for companies that are either a.) not capital intensive (ex. Software companies where CapEx is not a big factor) or b.) have relatively similar CapEx (and therefore similar depreciation). However when comparing capital-intensive companies, EBIT would be a more helpful multiple.

4.) Don't fully understand your question here but yes, assuming a ridiculously high terminal growth rate would lead to a ridiculous valuation. The key here is to look at what % the terminal value takes up of the resulting implied enterprise value (as compared to the PV of cash flows). If it is way too high (ex. 90%+) then it may be a red flag that your assumptions are unrealistic.

5.) WSO guides, MI guides.

Hope this helps.

 
rx.:

1.) I'd invest in Comp A since there must be a (positive) reason why Comp A still trades at 10x P/E despite having much smaller margins than its competitor.

>

i hate this reasoning (sorry). you can't make a intelligent punt until you know where the wider comp universe is trading, 15x could be comp average on 10% margins so A discounted due to low margin leaving B undervalued. or 10x could be mean comps on 10% so A has some, like you said, growth prospect or things. no idea what the cap structure looks like either and dividend prospects (now i'm going too deep)
"After you work on Wall Street it’s a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side.” - David Tepper
 

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

Array
 
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

Yea, now we're going into operational leverage etc, (too deeep?) these questions are rarely about a right or wrong answer and more how you look at them while stating your assumptions
"After you work on Wall Street it’s a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side.” - David Tepper
 
Oreos:
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

Yea, now we're going into operational leverage etc, (too deeep?) these questions are rarely about a right or wrong answer and more how you look at them while stating your assumptions

I struggle to think of any other logical answer to this question.

Sidenote: I'm not sure why people associate higher margins with higher multiples. Seems irrelevant, and is also a pet peeve of mine (especially when credit analysts say "it has fat margins" as a pro, as if thats supposed to mean something on a standalone basis).

Array
 
Best Response
Cries:
Oreos:
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

Yea, now we're going into operational leverage etc, (too deeep?) these questions are rarely about a right or wrong answer and more how you look at them while stating your assumptions

I struggle to think of any other logical answer to this question.

Sidenote: I'm not sure why people associate higher margins with higher multiples. Seems irrelevant, and is also a pet peeve of mine (especially when credit analysts say "it has fat margins" as a pro, as if thats supposed to mean something on a standalone basis).

And I think the higher margin commanding a higher multiple thing is just because there's a perceived cushion there during downturns. It's a lot more difficult for a 20%+ EBIT margin business to outright lose money during a cyclical downturn, whereas a 5% EBIT margins business is almost certainly going to have some years operating at a loss. For credit (and equity) guys, it's more about CF certainty, and they're willing to pay up for that.

 
Oreos:
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

Yea, now we're going into operational leverage etc, (too deeep?) these questions are rarely about a right or wrong answer and more how you look at them while stating your assumptions

I was also thinking operating leverage but with only a net income margin I don't think we have enough info...

 
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

this is the answer i'd be looking for.

 
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

This is how the interviewer explained it too. So basically higher margins don't tell me anything?! So there is no real correlation between higher margins and high multiples? So in the question I mentioned the company B (higher margin) would probably be in the lower end of the multiple range because it has a 10% margin compared to 5% of company A but still the same P/E multiple?

 
mirus:
Cries:

For Q1, because I think you guys whiffed:

Company A.

Assume price of the widget they sell is $100, then goes to $101; while costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B.

The expansion of net income for A will be 20%, while B will have NI expand by only 10%. Therefore Company A will have double the expected return of B.

This is how the interviewer explained it too.
So basically higher margins don't tell me anything?! So there is no real correlation between higher margins and high multiples?
So in the question I mentioned the company B (higher margin) would probably be in the lower end of the multiple range because it has a 10% margin compared to 5% of company A but still the same P/E multiple?

No. Because you’re assuming 100% fixed costs. If costs as a % of revenue are constant than both companies experience that name increase in NI, only if you assume a meaningful element of fixed costs does it work in your favour of the low margin company. Look at retail companies and how they’re currently getting hammered, it’s because of their operational leverage (high rent and staff payments).

Higher margins imply higher cash flow generation (think of your DCF, cash flow yield, ability to deleverage (i.e., create equity value), all else equal (e.g., capex)) higher operational leverage is only good when revenue is going one way.

"After you work on Wall Street it’s a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side.” - David Tepper
 

Hey Cries, I don't follow your response (forgive me) so I will write attempt to clarify where I fall down

(1) Assume price of the widget they sell is $100 -- OK got it -- this is fact -- fine (2) Then goes to 101 -- OK got it -- the price increased -- fine (3) While costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B -- OK OK Hold on -- where did you get these numbers -- I believe you made company A's cost higher because we are told they have a lower margin (5%vs10% -- is that right?) (4) The expansion of NI for CO.A = 20% and expansion of NI for CO.B = 10% -- WAIT A SECOND -- how in the world did you calculate this!!!!!!

thanks,

the la bull :)

LA Bull
 
The Los Angeles Bull:

Hey Cries, I don't follow your response (forgive me) so I will write attempt to clarify where I fall down

(1) Assume price of the widget they sell is $100 -- OK got it -- this is fact -- fine
(2) Then goes to 101 -- OK got it -- the price increased -- fine
(3) While costs stay flat at $95 for A and $90 for B -- OK OK Hold on -- where did you get these numbers -- I believe you made company A's cost higher because we are told they have a lower margin (5%vs10% -- is that right?)
(4) The expansion of NI for CO.A = 20% and expansion of NI for CO.B = 10% -- WAIT A SECOND -- how in the world did you calculate this!!!!!!

thanks,

the la bull :)

Jesus….

To get a 5% margin company on 100 rev, costs = 95, assume these costs are all fixed and rev goes up to 101 => 6 net income (6/5)-1=20%

"After you work on Wall Street it’s a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side.” - David Tepper
 

I understand your logic here about owning the company with NI expanding at a higher %, so you're assuming the market will reward that with a higher price vs. B?

From an absolute dollars perspective wouldn't you still rather own company B b/c more of that extra dollar would be hitting your bottom line?

 

For the Terminal Value growth, assume over the long term the economy grows at an average of 2%, as per central banking targets. Then, if you choose a terminal growth of greater than 2%, your company's growth to perpetuity surpasses that of the economy. This implies at some point in the future, your company will surpass the size of the economy, which is not possible.

Thus, your perpetuity growth should always be less than that of inflation/economic growth.

 

The most important thing in my opinion is to take a few seconds to think about the question that is asked before you answer. For consulting interviews this point is reiterated over and over again, but for some reason I rarely see it mentioned for IB interviews, but in my opinion it is crucial. Think about it - does your interviewer want an analyst who is thoughtful or someone who will blurt out the first thing on his mind?

When you break the questions down, they really aren't too hard. What you need to do is take a few seconds to think about which assumptions would imply which answer, state the assumptions and then give your answer based on that. You need to think the problem through, since there is a high likelihood that the interviewer will ask you to change your assumptions.

As an example, following on Cries' answer to the first question, assuming that costs and PE multiples are fixed and prices go up from 100 to 101, A's valuation will appreciate by 20% (1/(1005%)) while B's valuation will only appreciate by 10% (1/(10010%)). However, if margins are fixed (i.e. assuming 100% variable costs) both companies' valuation will appreciate by 1%. If you understand this quantitatively, then you have in my opinion already given an okay answer. Qualitatively there are pros and cons for both, again it is about understanding your assumptions.

For the second question, think about what multiples really are - a back of the envelope DCF as Cries' mentioned. So what does that imply? That the two companies either have different expected growth in future cash flows or different cost of capital. The reasons you state could be true, but it does not show that you have an understanding of what multiples really are and why they are used.

For the third question, read the UBS primer mentioned above. Again, your answer does not show that you understand the assumptions to your answer. You need to know under what assumptions EBITDA is a good proxy for free cash flow. Start by looking at how to go from EBITDA to FCF (this should be second nature to you if you have done some preparation). If the companies have similar CAPEX intensity, EBITDA is arguably better because it does not include non-cash expenses and is not affected by accounting differences in how D&A are treated. However, if the companies have different CAPEX intensity, EBIT (or EBITA) will (should) show this through depreciation charges.

Regarding the fourth question, you can say that if a company grows at a higher rate than the overall economy infinitely it would eventually become bigger than the economy. For example, if you assumed Apple to grow infinitely at 5% and the US economy to grow at 2% it would be bigger than the US economy in approx. 115 years (6381.05^115 > 17,5551.02^115). Thus, you should aim to forecast to a period where the long-term growth rate isn't (much) higher than growth for the overall economy(ies) that the company is operating in.

 
TheSanchize:

For the second question, think about what multiples really are - a back of the envelope DCF as Cries' mentioned. So what does that imply? That the two companies either have different expected growth in future cash flows or different cost of capital. The reasons you state could be true, but it does not show that you have an understanding of what multiples really are and why they are used.

Maybe that is my problem, but I hope that I understood the concept behind it. - expected growth in future cash flows which is reflected in the share price and therefore results in an increase in equity value --> increase in enterprise value. - different cost of capital: not sure if I exactly know what you mean.. this would only be true when looking at different P/E multiples right? And not in case of EBIT or EBITDA multiples

 

I'm sorry to say but it seems like you need to pick up a finance textbook (or take corporate finance/valuation classes) to really grasp the concept. See p. 13 and 14 for an overview of how EV/EBITDA links to DCF: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/vebitda.pdf

I can recommend Damodaran's book and online classes (or class materials), Koller's Valuation, and Investment Banking by Rosenbaum. If you don't have time (i.e. you have interviews coming up), you can try your luck with various interview guides, Damodaran's class notes and this primer from UBS http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~ekerschn/pdfs/readingsemk/EMK%20NYU%20S07%2…

 
mirus:
TheSanchize:

For the second question, think about what multiples really are - a back of the envelope DCF as Cries' mentioned. So what does that imply? That the two companies either have different expected growth in future cash flows or different cost of capital. The reasons you state could be true, but it does not show that you have an understanding of what multiples really are and why they are used.

Maybe that is my problem, but I hope that I understood the concept behind it.
- expected growth in future cash flows which is reflected in the share price and therefore results in an increase in equity value --> increase in enterprise value.
- different cost of capital: not sure if I exactly know what you mean.. this would only be true when looking at different P/E multiples right? And not in case of EBIT or EBITDA multiples

It seems like the 2nd question is just about growth rates. E.g. Tesla trades for 34x EBITDA and GM/Ford trade for 3-4x. Same industry but with dramatically different growth rates. You can then walk through why it might be that one business would have a much higher growth rate than another... in this case, technology.

Of course you can almost always have the cost of capital discussion with virtually all of these questions. That is a pretty good way to gauge how in depth a person has gone on the valuation/modelling side. The more you research inputs to cost of cap, the more confused you are likely to become (e.g. see Damodaran). But you should at least be able to somewhat intelligently talk about what you think the appropriate equity risk premium is (why?), the appropriate risk-free rate (why?), betas, cost of debt (why?). I plan to pound the MBA kids on this stuff when I go out to interview later this month.

 

There are no "correct" answers to these questions. Just apply valuation concepts appropriately and discuss what considerations are relevant in the questions.

  1. Depends on a lot of factors. What is the capital structure? What is the operating leverage? What are the capex requirements? Net income is not free cash flow. If both companies have substantial capex requirements, the company at 5% net income margins may not generate any free cash flow at all. Is this even a good industry to be in? Even if A or B is cheap relative to the other one, are they trading at a discount to intrinsic value? Even if they are trading at a discount to intrinsic value, are there other investments that generate higher risk adjusted returns?

  2. The reason why companies trade at different multiples generally falls into one of these categories or a combination of them - growth, risk, taxes, artificial accounting treatment (can be adjusted for), or misvaluation (could be for a variety of reasons).

  3. Multiples are bad because they do not reflect the cash flow generation of companies. If everything below ebitda to FCF is similar for companies - similar taxes, d&a, capex, nwc, etc. - then ebitda can potentially be useful. For companies that have different capex requirements, which will eventually be reflected in D&A, then EBIT can potentially be more useful.

  4. Growth rate should reflect sustainable long term growth rate - long term GDP or inflation. If your company grows faster than the economy in perpetuity, eventually it will take over the whole economy.

 

Could someone explain this (UBS valuation multiples page 13)?

Example: With perfect foresight, what multiple could you have paid for Microsoft in 1990 and still have received a fair return on your investment?

Ex post, we estimate that you could have paid an EV/sales multiple of 42x in 1990.

The calculation is simple: we assume a cost of equity of 14.5% based on the tenyear Treasury note rate at that time of 9.5% plus a 5% equity risk premium, and discount back today’s price (adjusted for cumulative dividends) at that rate to 1990, giving us a ‘fair’ price curve. That is, the ‘fair’ share price at the end of each year equals the previous year’s share price × 1.145. We then divide sales for each period by the ‘fair’ price at the end of that period to get a fair EV/sales multiple. An investor with perfect foresight could have paid 42x sales, more than eight times the price at that time, and received an average 14.5% return through today. (The fortunate investor who bought in 1990 and held received a 44% compound return.)

You basically discount today's share price with the cost of equity (equity risk premium would be calculated separately, depending on the risks involved in the company). Then you get the share price in the beginning (1990). What I don't get is how you come up with the 42x? I know that we don't have the actual numbers but how would you calculate that? "We then divide sales for each period by the ‘fair’ price at the end of that period to get a fair EV/sales multiple." --> Don't get that part You take the share price in 1990 and sales of that period in order to see how much higher sales is compared to the discounted share price?

 

The book is far more in depth than the site and more than you need for interviews. It doesn't have questions as such but I found the examples really helpful. I'd get if you're after theoretical knowledge to answer questions but if you just want to practice questions I wouldn't bother.

 

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