That's a potentially a misconceived question.

If I said "one in ten" and you then thought "I have a 10% chance", you'd be thinking about it very wrong.

Why not ask "what percentage of people with 3 b's in their name make MD"?

Those who can, do. Those who can't, post threads about how to do it on WSO.
 

Yeah, but even then the numbers are still skewed. Many analysts start looking for a PE gig on day one, while a very small amount actually have ambitions to stay with their firm long enough to think about becoming an MD.

I think if you're already an analyst, then your chances of getting promoted to MD someday are pretty good if that's what you're actually intent on. Lots of firms talk about retaining talent so it's very doable as long as you're enough of an all-star to climb up as an associate and VP. Keep in mind that it takes an insane amount of time to get there though, and there are VPs who never make it.

 
Wall St:

Yeah, but even then the numbers are still skewed. Many analysts start looking for a PE gig on day one, while a very small amount actually have ambitions to stay with their firm long enough to think about becoming an MD.

I think if you're already an analyst, then your chances of getting promoted to MD someday are pretty good if that's what you're actually intent on. Lots of firms talk about retaining talent so it's very doable as long as you're enough of an all-star to climb up as an associate and VP. Keep in mind that it takes an insane amount of time to get there though, and there are VPs who never make it.

Do you or have you ever worked in the industry?

Its fairly "easy" make your way up to director as long as you don't fuck up and keep a smile on your face as you eat shit sandwiches.

I have seen and know of dozens of directors get fired. That's the big jump. And past that jump you have guys who can perform ($1mm) to guys who kill it ($15+mm).

Its not some easy linear path.

 
Best Response

I think you're off by a significant factor. The difference is there's a new class of analysts that come in every year whereas MDs stay in their posts for a long time. At my BB coverage group we've hired 1 new MD (MD lateral from another BB) in the past 5 years, and there have been no internal promotes.

There is a significant jump between Director and MD because in one role you are still helping someone else manage their clients whereas in the other you own the clients. If you're a Director then most of your relationships will be the same ones the MD you work for owns. Thus, it's really hard to add much incremental value if you are promoted to MD. That's why making it to MD is so hard because you need to own your own clients.

 

So maybe the right estimation would be 1/(Number of analyst classes before 1 MD change happens*Size of analyst classes). Captures the number of analysts that come through the door before a new MD takes over

 

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