2015 Predictions - a collection of major firms' predictions

Afternoon Monkeys,

I find this time of year fascinating, as economists, investors, and talking heads all hurl out prognostications about what the world is going to do in 2015. Some are very specific and grab headlines, others are broader so they run a smaller risk of being wrong.

I think most of them are bullshit but nevertheless I think it's interesting to see what supposedly the best investors have to say. I wanted to list a few of the people I pay attention to and hear your thoughts.

Goldman calling for nearly 3.5% global GDP, lower oil, continued USD strength, and rising rates

Life after Investment Banking

Mod Note: Throwback Thursday: this post originally went up 4/25/12

Like a majority of people who are on this website, I used to come on here and write bullshit about a life partly my own, partly fantasy. I'm now going to uncloak the anonymous man and tell you my story.

My name is Stephen Ridley. I graduated from a top tier British University with a First Class Honours Degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics in 2010 and went straight into IBD at a top tier European Investment Bank, after interning there in 2009. I worked in the top team (on a revenue basis) for 16 months, before quitting in October 2011. I want to tell you about that experience, and about what has happened since then, about how I left the green to chase my dream. This will be blunt and honest. I do not mean to offend, quite the opposite, I hope to inspire! Again, this isn't an attack on those who choose to be bankers, it's just me sharing my experience together with the lessons I've learnt, and hopefully it speaks to a few people. If you look at the picture above you'll see a picture of what I do now. It's a little different from where I was 6 months ago!

Banking is fucking brutal. I knew this after my internship, but I didn't care. I wanted money. I wanted respect. I wanted to be a somebody in the eyes of myself and others. But most of all, I wanted money. Why? Because money is freedom. Money means I can wear what I want, live where I want, go where I want, eat what I want, be who I want. Money would make me happy. Right? Well... not exactly I'm afraid. In fact, money didn't seem to make any of the bankers happy. Not one person in the roughly 200 I got to know in banking were happy. Yet all earned multiples of the national average salary.

Anyone Finding CFA L3 More Bullsh*t Than the Previous 2?

This CFA lark just isn't fun anymore. The brevity and lack of real world application / foundation has really hit a limit on me.

Someone give me strength! Any L3s out there hitting the same wall?

What's Your Story?

I had a moment of reflection while riding the train to work a few mornings ago. As I was staring out the window, I started thinking about the absolutely ridiculous trail I’ve blazed to get to bring myself to where I am today.

I was once one of those kids who had my whole life planned out when I was 16. I can definitely say though that events have turned out nowhere even remotely close to what was on that plan, or any other plan I’ve come up with in the meantime. That’s not surprising though. I got to thinking though about a cohesive way I might go about recalling my life up to this point.

Dinged: Other candidates "Bubbled Up Higher"

So I was interviewing with a MM bank and got dinged. Turns out the guy that was running recruiting and dinged me quit his job the day after informing me.

I decided to e-mail the new guy who took over for recruiting and asked if there was any particular question I got wrong (I know I didn't) or any specific feedback/constructive criticism he could offer that would assist me moving forward. This is how he responded.

How much paperwork do you deal with?

Hello Monkeys,

As I go through stacks and stacks of seemingly unneccessary paperwork for a prefftigious client, I can't help but think "There has to be a better way"...

As a junior monkey, do you think that you deal with too much paper work? Does some of what you keep on file just seem... unneccessary? Do you have any special, preftigious clients who seem to want to "cross their T's and dot their I's," like six or seven times?

I guess this is just a rant, but I would be curious to hear some other monkeys' paperwork plights.

Staycation

I’ve decided to take the next week off for vacation. I’m kind of worn down and need some rest. I’ve been looking forward to not going into work for a while now. I don’t have any of the typical vacation plans set up for the upcoming week, so it’s going to be much more of a “staycation” (I hate this term by the way).

Discrimination? Office Politics? Overagressive

Hey Boys, been lurking for about 5 years now.

Finally got the interview at Tier 1 IB in Chicago for mid office.

I blew the MD away and then interviewed with 2 blk females who are heads of the teams.

Found out this morning I didn't get the role and it was given to someone who was as they put more boring and quiet and not outgoing. I was shocked as my natural personality is to come off as a superstar/confident/ a player. I asked more questions from my recruiter and I was told in confidence that I'm really suited for the front office.

MLK Day

I'm sick and fucking tired to hearing about how great of a family guy MLK was. He was a philanderer. I'm seriously starting to question just what the media considers a morally upstanding person.

Voting law requiring ID is a significant "burden" for minorities

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/s-c-voter...

I didn't realize it was kosher to just roll up to a polling place, no proof of ID and vote. I mean who cares if people vote multiple times or we have no real record of who voted when or where.

I also didn't realize that minority voters didn't deem it necessary to have a picture ID. I've always had some form of picture ID and would never even consider voting unless I could legally prove who I am and that my vote was mine.

Seems pretty fair and forthright that if you are voting you should be counted and truly be who you represent you are. Good thing Holder, that lying piece of shit AG decided to rule in this case, simply because minorities are assumed to not have photo identification.

Pages