DCF in a Country with Hyperinflation

What is the best way to do a valuation of a company based in an emerging market with hyperinflation?

A lesson from Roman History

Last week I posted about the history of the Drachma and Greece.
Thought it would be interesting to share the history of the Roman empire and its currency. The following is based on a speech by Joseph R. Peden given in 2009.

Scholars have devoted a great deal of energy to examining the problem of how the Roman Empire lasted so long? And did it decline, or was it simply transformed into something else?

Monetary policy always serves, even if it serves badly, the perceived needs of the rulers of the state. If it also happens to enhance the prosperity and progress of the masses of the people, that is a secondary benefit; but its first aim is to serve the needs of the rulers, not the ruled.

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation

"Every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along," Long says. "Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."


200 Years of U.S. Treasury Yields - Short the 30-Year, Ticker: TMV

The Fed increased the Federal Debt Ceiling dozens of times over the past year, and it seems like it is not over for the Bernank. The Fed's balance has been growing every single day as he pumps the economy with more liquidity. Here is a link to the NY Fed's POMO schedule: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_sc....

Has Hyper-Inflation Arrived?

These inflation figures might surprise you. While Bernanke and the boys at the Fed seem most concerned about deflation, the prices of everyday items were off to the races in 2010. Thanks to a very helpful article over at WiseBread, we see that prices of nearly everything we use on a daily basis rose substantially over the past 12 months, some even doubling.

You should go to the original article for a more detailed breakdown, but here is a list of the major price moves of 2010. Remember, these are the price movements of the past twelve months alone:

M2 Reaches $8.8 Trillion in the U.S., a Record!

Monetary stimulus has driven M2 to $8.8 trillion for the first time in history, an inflationary signal....In response, Silver is currently at $26.80 per ounce, down from the peak of $29.00. Most don't realize that the commodity was trading at only $$18 in August; a poor man's play on inflation. Futures are also moving sharply to the downside, in anticipation of Bernanke's speech in Frankfurt today, defending monetary easing.

Negative Yielding TIPS and the Beauty of Deflation

In the flagship episode of NSFW Eddie and I got into the subject of QE2. Though I feel it would be better for both my mental and physical health to completely ignore the subject, it keeps coming back to gnaw at me.

I purposely waited a few days to post this topic as I continue to reel from the sort of insanity that has become standard market operating procedure . I realize many of you guys are too busy doing your own thing to notice, but every week we seem to be experiencing new plateaus in the "how low will you..." category.

Inflation and the Coming Zombie Apocalypse

I got a call around 4:30 last Friday and when I checked the caller ID I saw that it was a buddy of mine in California. That was pretty odd, because it was only 7:30 in the morning in Cali and he's not an early riser. When I answered, it sounded like he was in his car. And he was excited about something.

"Dude, I just got a call from Mike and he told me the grains locked limit-up on the open. Is that true?" he asked.

"I haven't seen anything yet, but I'm not really paying attention. Which grain?"

"All of 'em."

Hyperinflation and Stimulus Plan

Is inflation and the possibility of hyperinflation an inevitable result of pumping billions and trillions of dollars into the economy? Can someone who is well versed on the issue please explain this to me.