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quantitative easing
 

Fed Policy Is Contractionary

In The Flesh's picture
In The Flesh
      HF
 
 
(Neanderthal, 2,813
 
Points)
 on 4/9/13 at 6:30pm
ben.jpg

You hear it all the time, maybe even every day: the Fed’s never-ending quantitative easing program led by $85 billion per month in asset purchases, will eventually cause hyperinflation.

This will eventually lead to a devaluation of the dollar, skyrocketing prices for everyday goods, and death, destruction and doom of all kinds. Some very smart people subscribe to this, including many that WSO admires: Peter Schiff. Jim Rogers. Kyle Bass.

But here’s what’s probably driving them all nuts: despite no signs of letup from the Fed, inflation remains quite historically low, well within the 2% y/y benchmark sought by that institution.

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S&P 500 P/E Valuation

madmoney15's picture
madmoney15
     
 
(Orangutan, 331
 
Points)
 on 4/3/13 at 4:40pm
images-2.jpeg

1. Has Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist affected the P/E valuation of the S&P 500?

2. If so, what would be a way to take (QE & OT) away to make the S&P 500 P/E on a true relative basis from previous years?

3. It's the general assumption that the QEs have driven the stock market higher, and still is only 17.96 PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/) , would taking away the affects of the Fed make equities actually cheaper than 17.96?

I would appreciate anyone's logic behind their reasoning.

  • 1
     

Question about QE & the Fed

Bruce Wayne's picture
Bruce Wayne
     
 
(Orangutan, 316
 
Points)
 on 3/31/13 at 2:49pm

With the Fed buying so much fixed income (e.g. MBS), aren't they going to take a huge loss when interest rates go up, since the value of those bonds will go down? How is the Fed going to deal with that?

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Why does easing boost the stock market?

Art of War's picture
Art of War
     
 
(Monkey, 34
 
Points)
 on 1/20/13 at 9:30pm
easing stock market.jpg

Whenever QE is expected, the market rallies. Can someone explain why that is? I don't quite understand it. Is it because the market expects people to move into equities and away from bonds?

  • 38
     

More Easing? Really?

Carl Richards's picture
Carl Richards
      HF
 
(Monkey, 46
 
Points)
 on 9/14/12 at 1:00am
walk away number.jpg

With the markets on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the recent announcement of QE3 by the FED, it begs the question, should we really be getting more monetary stimulation?

While evidence demonstrates that the government bailout prevented a full fledged financial meltdown, the actual quantitative easing has not managed to stimulate anything more than a tepid, if not feeble, economic resurgence.

Small businesses remain crowded out while the big boys freeze or slow hiring until both the economic and regulatory environments become more appealing.

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Who Wants a Fed Bond-Buyback Program?

hdavid57's picture
hdavid57
      O
 
(Senior Orangutan, 439
 
Points)
 on 7/8/12 at 2:16pm

Eighty thousand jobs does not bode well for the immediate future of our economy. The question is what to do about it, if anything. Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal ponders this issue in his article, "Weak Report Lifts Chance of Fed Action," updated on July 6.

Should the Fed institute another round of quantitative easing? As Mr. Hilsenrath reports:

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.54% on Friday, near the lowest levels in generations, reflecting market gloom about the economy and also possibly the anticipation of more action by the Fed. Bond-buying programs are meant to push down long-term interest rates to spur spending and investment and to drive investors into riskier assets that might support economic growth, such as stocks.

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Is the US stuck in a liquidity trap?

bobster00's picture
bobster00
     
 
(Monkey, 58
 
Points)
 on 6/20/12 at 4:16pm
lewisquantitative.jpg

With the news that the the Fed is continuing Operation Twist and buying long term bonds, will the monetary injections help to lower the interest rates at all?
Or are we stuck in a liquidity trap where the injections serve almost no purpose at all with regards to lowering rates?
Also, with QE3 not ruled out, is the Fed just sucking America deeper and deeper into the liquidity trap?

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ECB Giving Away the House

Edmundo Braverman's picture
Edmundo Braverman
      ST
 
 
(Human, 14,408
 
Points)
 on 12/22/11 at 4:57am

Lord knows we love our quantitative easing here in the good old U.S. of A., so why should Europe be any different? Or so went the thinking yesterday when the ECB opened a credit facility that quickly reached the level of our original TARP scheme. Now it looks like the Euro is in for the same drubbing the dollar took. BNY Mellon's Simon Derrick explains that the only way to pay for this new QE is to print more money. Europe becomes more American by the day:

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What Is Quantitative Easing (QE)?

Quantitative Easing is the name given to government policy to increase the money supply by injecting liquidity into the economy. This is done by buying government assets back from the market.

The reason behind using quantitative easing is that it will increase the capital within the financial sector and therefore increase the amount which banks lend to consumers and small businesses, in an effort to promote economic growth. Quantitative easing is usually only done when interest rates are already extremely low and there are no other measures which can be taken.

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Media Investing in the Aftermath of Murdoch

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
Midas Mulligan Magoo
     
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,167
 
Points)
 on 7/25/11 at 12:00pm
mud

It is only well after the smoke clears that we begin to see what actually caused the fire. In the case of Rupert Murdoch, his Bizzaro Wikileaks approach to journalism is a pretty safe bet to be the eventual culprit. Murdoch’s always been known for tough tactics and though he never ran an investment bank, is as powerful a Wall Street player as there is. Some would argue as there has ever been.

This is precisely why his likely downfall, will have a far further reaching scope than Murdoch and Newscorp. As our friends over at Mindfulmoney.com ask, has media investing changed forever.

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EURUSD: QE2, Oil price. Debt ceiling, Earning season

claas's picture
claas
      ST
 
(Baboon, 108
 
Points)
 on 7/10/11 at 11:51am

Hi all,

what are the effects on EURUSD:

1.) as QE2 ends
2.) Oil price
3.) debt ceiling rise
4.) waek earning season

Thanks.

  • 7
     

Will There Be a QE3?

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
Midas Mulligan Magoo
     
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,167
 
Points)
 on 5/21/11 at 12:00pm
bbb

Slowly but surely we step towards our day of reckoning. In just over a month, the Federal Reserve will end its bond buying program popularly known as QE2 or what many of us skeptics have likened it to, using a tiny band aid to qwell a huge hemorrhage. Depending on which side of the isle you stand, you may love or hate the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing.

Investors are certainly grateful to Bernanke and company for the near two year bull market, which has seen major market players (those that survived, that is)recover from the depths of the crisis. Many critics, however, have been vocal about the structural damage that the Fed’s debt expansion policies have done to the system long term. The question we face now is, will there be a QE3?

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Inflation 101

Jorgé's picture
Jorgé
     
 
(Neanderthal, 2,182
 
Points)
 on 4/15/11 at 9:18pm
teacher.jpg

Sorry to deviate from Man Week, but the guy who gave you the Ben Bernank is at it again... and it’s gold.

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QE3's coming and its name is... War?

Jorgé's picture
Jorgé
     
 
(Neanderthal, 2,182
 
Points)
 on 3/10/11 at 9:38pm
MilitaryChimp

I usually read Zero Hedge’s gloom and doom commentary with a grain of salt but this recent post really caught my eye.

George Washington argues that war is upon us, thanks to another round of Military Keynesianism and quite frankly, it doesn’t seem that far off to me.

Look at the posts on WSO alone; killings in Saudi Arabia, $220 oil, suicide, and grave views on the macro front.

In the news Qaddafi’s bombing the shit out of people and the U.S., France, and others are already in talks to support the rebels.

Turmoil, anarchy, and anger have now blanketed the Earth. Governments have been toppled; inflation is setting up widespread hunger and the world’s economies, especially that of the US, are feared to be unsustainable.

Is war on the horizon?

To mask QE3?

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44 million in the U.S. Use Food Stamps, 14.3% of Population

BankingRUs9's picture
BankingRUs9
      IB
 
(Senior Orangutan, 471
 
Points)
 on 3/4/11 at 12:42am
SNAP January_0.png

44mm citizens in the United States are now using food stamps. That is almost 14% of the population? What affect has quantitative easing had? Grain and corn prices are up 80%+ over the past few months...According to ZH, "Bernanke's plan to recreate Libya in our own back yard is continuing to work magnificently. It is no surprise that on Charles Ponzi day, the update to food stamp usage indicates that in December those receiving an average of $134 per month has just hit 44.1 million people. These lucky people will soon be able to buy an inflation adjusted 2.3 crumbs of notional bread with this generous handout from the Chairsatan.

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QE2 - Successful Trades

deep dive's picture
deep dive
     
 
(Monkey, 30
 
Points)
 on 11/30/10 at 6:56am

Doing some independent research on QE2, partly in attempts to understand it better for purposes of a class project. Looking for examples of trades originally based on the Fed's actions that ended up in the money (or conversely, trades that had strong economic reasoning behind them, but didn't work out). I know a lot of the predicted effects of the bond purchases were already priced into the market, so I'm wondering how much people were able to take advantage of the volatility closer to the actual implementation.

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QE2, The Video: Bad Economics Made Easy

Buster McGillicudy's picture
Buster McGillicudy
      IB
 
 
(Senior Baboon, 184
 
Points)
 on 11/15/10 at 3:00pm
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Hilarious cartoon ownage of the Fed - Xtranormal

TheKing's picture
TheKing
      O
 
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,143
 
Points)
 on 11/15/10 at 8:59am

As found here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k

and here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/12/fed-anima...

Truly hysterical stuff.

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Quantitative Easing 101

Jorgé's picture
Jorgé
     
 
(Neanderthal, 2,182
 
Points)
 on 11/12/10 at 7:12pm
sexy teacher

The Ben Bernank’s second dose of quantitative easing has been this month’s hot topic on Wall Street, with countless luminaries from across the globe flooding the internet, television, and even radio waves to voice their opinions on the matter.

Some of it was praise and adulation for the Ben Bernank, but unlike sheep our own resident badasses; Uncle Eddie and Midas, have espoused its stupidity in the premiere episode of NSFW.

And they’re not the only ones.

Their fellow badasses Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Schwarzman, Bill Gross, David Einhorn, and Jim Rogers have all spoken openly against the Ben Bernank’s policy of inflation, citing the inherent danger of it creating more problems than actually fixing them.

But what is it really?

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Inflationary Banana Arbitrage

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
Midas Mulligan Magoo
     
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,167
 
Points)
 on 11/5/10 at 12:10pm
bananflation

Once in a rare while a topic comes up on WSO that I feel is truly blog worthy. In this particular case for no better reason than the collision of reality and perception...mine, that is. Obviously, the news of the week is the Fed's $600 billion Treasury spending spree. Reading over this topic, which was anything but serious, got me to pondering some major life issues. How trapped can we get in our own vacuum and how much does it to snap us out?

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Julian Robertson Gonna Put You on a Diet, Fatty

DoctorEvil's picture
DoctorEvil
      O
 
 
(Senior Orangutan, 431
 
Points)
 on 11/5/10 at 5:36am
fatties.jpg

In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, hedge fund elder statesman and father of Tiger Balm, Julian Robertson, shared his thoughts on the Critical Topics of the Day, including the recent elections, quantitative easing, and most importantly: fat people. Read the full interview transcript here, or fast forward to about 6:30 for Fat Talk.

There's no fooling Robertson. He sees you there, mayonnaise flecking your third chin, reaching after that fallen french fry like some sort of beached Manatee. Robertson has his eye on the ball, always has, always will, so when he's of the opinion that winning a fight against American obesity could add $1 trillion to the GDP, you open your fat ears and listen.

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  • 28
     

The Road to Ruin

onebuck's picture
onebuck
      O
 
 
(Senior Baboon, 228
 
Points)
 on 11/4/10 at 9:07pm
money down.JPG

A very well written piece by Roger Altman (most of you know him as CEO of Evercore) in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs.

Some shocking excerpts from his piece include:

- Economic threats have been used to influence foreign policy in the past. In 1956, during the Suez crisis, the US threatened not to support an IMF loan to England unless the British agreed to withdraw military from Egypt. England with a sensitive economy at the time caved in. Altman argues China could do the same owning as many Treasury bonds that it does in the instance it takes action against Taiwan.

- Global financial rejection of the US has happened in the past (1979) and is very possible to happen again in the near future if America continues its current economic policy

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Blowing Bubbles with QE2

Jorgé's picture
Jorgé
     
 
(Neanderthal, 2,182
 
Points)
 on 10/25/10 at 8:45pm
bubblemonkey

Funny that Midas mentioned the 1997 Asian crisis in his post today, because I think we’ll be seeing it happen again quite soon.

I was discussing gold with Frieds (ask him about his Playboy story by the way) last week and, thinking on the consequences of a Fed clusterfuck, noticed something that has taken second fiddle to gold and the currency wars.

The growing Asian bubble.

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purpose of quantitative easing

junior2012's picture
junior2012
     
 
(Senior Baboon, 197
 
Points)
 on 10/18/10 at 12:54am

So I was reading ZeroHedge, and apparently China's largest state run english newspaper is accusing the US of actively attempting to debase its currency.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-strikes-ba...

Ignoring the hypocrisy of the Chinese, what do you guys think of the idea that the Fed's main purpose behind the next round of quantitative easing is stimulus through inflation/currency debasement?

To the best of my understanding, quantitative easing/other federal reserve stimulus is usually mainly aimed at encouraging bank lending, by driving down interest rates and giving the banks lots of excess reserves to lend out, which should in turn spur real GDP growth.
But stimulus in this way might not work now because:

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Bernanke's Self-fulfilling Prophecy

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
Midas Mulligan Magoo
     
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,167
 
Points)
 on 10/13/10 at 12:48pm
ben

Living up to your own prophecy. It can be a daunting task. Sometimes in life we build our identity around a premise, what do we do when that premise takes us to task?

That's my question for Ben Bernanke whether he hears me or not.

There is no doubt that a hundred years from now when a new generation of monkeys looks back upon what we call "today", it will be the current Federal Reserve Chairman as the target in the cross-hairs of their focus.

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The World Currency War begins

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
Midas Mulligan Magoo
     
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,167
 
Points)
 on 9/28/10 at 11:02am
confederate dollar

The world currency war. I like how that sounds. Are there any nations that still use hard currency? If so, I've got them in the office pool.

In my experience, many Fiats fighting can equal one classic Yugo and nobody needs that in their driveway.

Yesterday's fiery speech by Guido Mantega, the Brazilian Finance Minister to a forum of industrial leaders , addressed an important issue in world finance which is rapidly playing out before our eyes.

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