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S&P 500
 

S&P 500 P/E Valuation

madmoney15's picture
(Orangutan, 366
 
Points)
 on 4/3/13 at 4:40pm
images-2.jpeg

1. Has Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist affected the P/E valuation of the S&P 500?

2. If so, what would be a way to take (QE & OT) away to make the S&P 500 P/E on a true relative basis from previous years?

3. It's the general assumption that the QEs have driven the stock market higher, and still is only 17.96 PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/) , would taking away the affects of the Fed make equities actually cheaper than 17.96?

I would appreciate anyone's logic behind their reasoning.

Why The Market Is Wrong And The Economy Is Right

GMngmt's picture
O
 
Points)
 on 3/17/13 at 4:30pm
Wrong - Right.jpg

An article from BI, The Most Beautiful Correlation In Stocks And The Economy Continues To Be Perfect shows an overlay of the S&P 500, jobless claims, and the author, Joe Weisenthal claims that “…stocks reflect what's happening in the actual, real economy, as evidenced by the fact that for years, stocks have moved right in line with jobless claims.” This caught my attention and after a quick dig on Google, it turns out his analysis is DEAD WRONG and here’s why…

S&P 500 vs. DJIA: Who You Got?!?

mikesswimn's picture
O
 
Points)
 on 2/27/13 at 9:41am
Who You Got?

Morning Monkeys,

Back in September 2012, In The Flesh made some great points about why the DJIA is a worthless piece of garbage; concluding that the S&P 500 is a far more useful measure of the market. ITF makes some pretty solid points to arrive at said conclusion: It's only 29% of total market cap, it's price weighted, and stock splits cause all sorts of trouble. All great points, and all absolutely correct. But, in practice, how does the DJIA compare to the S&P 500?

Can The Big Game Predict Big Profits For Wall Street?

GMngmt's picture
O
 
Points)
 on 2/3/13 at 3:30pm
Super Bowl XLVII Logo

When it comes the Super Bowl, everybody has their traditions. Whether it’s making a favorite homemade dip, a gathering of friends at a particular sport’s bar, or just simply watching the commercials. Heck, even WS has one, the Super Bowl Market Indicator which has an 80% accuracy predicting the direction of the S&P 500 over its 45 year history. Further Benjamin Alamer, Professor of Sports Management at Menlo College and author of Sport’s Analytics claims to already know this year’s winner! So what does this mean for the S&P 500? Read on to get the answers to this question and more …

NYSE Short Sales Top September's Peak, So What's Your Move

GMngmt's picture
O
 
Points)
 on 7/22/12 at 4:30pm
NYSE Shorts.jpg

Up, up, and up! Or down, down, and down some more. Where’s Friday’s Standard and Poors 500 Index going? Will the U.S economy, at its slowest pace in 60 years, grow faster than an annualized 2.1% once the election is over? Is Europe ever going to solve its problems, the financial pillar that was Germany's business confidence is at a two year low. China is now seeing its slowest growth in three years and this week Bloomberg reported that New York Stock Exchange total short sales peaked at 5.35%. This is only a one-sided argument, what do the bulls think, and if you were a Portfolio Manager, what would your call be on SPX? Read more to find out…

S&P Historical Constituents

CLEBanker's picture
IB
 
Points)
 on 1/19/12 at 2:22pm

Guys,

Does anyone have an excel file with the S&P 500 constituents as of year end for the past 20 years? I don't have access to Compustat, WRDS or bloomberg and would really appreciate someone posting this.

Thanks in advance!

S&P 500 Historical Constituents

CLEBanker's picture
IB
 
Points)
 on 1/19/12 at 2:20pm

Guys,

Does anyone have an excel file with the S&P 500 constituents as of year end for the past 20 years? I don't have access to Compustat, WRDS or bloomberg and would really appreciate someone posting this.

Thanks in advance!

anyone have a s&p index alert subscription?

pruf's picture
O
 
Points)
 on 12/9/11 at 10:36pm

would you kindly PM me? I have some simple data I'd like to get from there but it's subscriber only.

Occupy Main Street, Restructure America

BankingRUs9's picture
IB
 
Points)
 on 11/6/11 at 5:24am
occupy main street.jpg

November 6, 2011: It has been almost 4 years since the United States and the entire Western World has been mired in this recessionary state. What has happened should not be a surprise to anyone. After scrambling for an ever higher quality of life, sending labor-intensive industries overseas, and losing more than 2.5 million manufacturing jobs and more than 850,000 professional service and information sector jobs to outsourcing, we foolishly blame our government and the top 1% of our earning population for our hardships. Most Americans lack the skills and motivation to innovate, and are fit to work only in commoditized industries, yet most of our commoditized industries have been sent overseas.

What a f'n day in the market.

txjustin's picture
O
(Neanderthal, 2,475
 
Points)
 on 8/9/11 at 4:08pm

What a f'n day in the market. I am not sure if it was a dead cat bounce or an actual rally from being oversold. I'm confused. Any input?

S&P 500 2011 Median Target - 1,535, Really?

BankingRUs9's picture
IB
 
Points)
 on 3/4/11 at 2:56am
sp500valuationgraph-060701.gif

Investment bank earnings estimates are truly bullish for 2011. Applying a 16x-18x multiple to these forward earnings brings you to S&P levels unseen since 2007. Unfortunately, something not included in these estimates is that for every $10 crude oil increases, S&P earnings fall by $3. This does not even factor in the fall in consumer confidence when citizens across the globe realize that they are soon going to pay $200 to fill up a mid-sized sedan. Once QE3 is unveiled and Middle Eastern governments are overthrown once and for all, who knows how high black gold could climb. After all this is done for, oil could easily reach $130+ on a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia.

Greenstone Value Opportunity Fund, LP 2010 Annual Letter (Distressed, Deep Value Fund)

BankingRUs9's picture
IB
 
Points)
 on 2/25/11 at 10:08pm
Greenstone.png

After closing three strong years of performance (2008 - 2.5%, 2009 - 36.5%, 2010 - 15.6%), Greenstone shares its outlook for 2011, as the year of "dividend chasing." 2010 was certainly a year of "credit chasing," where all funds searched for yield in high yield bonds, leveraged loans, and REITs. About 80% of the Greenstone portfolio is investing in traditional deep value securities, and 20% is invested in "special situations." The last bullet point in Greenstone's themes is that historically, "economies with the highest growth produce the lowest stock returns by an immense margin (yes, you read that right).

5 Year Quick Comparison- S&P500, DOW, NASDAQ

WMR's picture
VC
 
Points)
 on 1/7/11 at 11:34am

2006-2010 Review (S&P500, DOW, NASDAQ)

1st: NASDAQ +14.2%
Best Yearly Performance: +45.1% (2009)
Worst Yearly Performance: -40.5% (2008)

Only index to completely recoup the losses of 2008 in 2009
Index with the highest performance in 2009 and 2010
Least profitable index for 2006
Worst performer of 2008

2nd: DOW +8.5%
Best Yearly Performance: +31.9% (2009)
Worst Yearly Performance: -33.8% (2008)

Best performer of 2006
Least profitable index of 2010

3rd: S&P500 -2.8%
Best Yearly Performance: +24.7% (2009)
Worst Yearly Performance: -38.5% (2008)

Only index to have a negative 5-year performance
Least profitable index for 2007

source: http://worldfinancialmarkets.yolasite.com/5yusm.php

Weekend Wars: Qualitative vs. Quantitative

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
 
Points)
 on 12/12/10 at 3:18pm
qualquant

About two years ago, I had a fascinating market related conversation with the son of a high ranking Chinese Communist Party member who had recently finished a top 5 MBA program stateside.

He was celebrating all over town and the entourage grew by the bottle. By the time I bumped into him, the next destination was already determined...

Enter at your own Risk

Sadly, due to the potent mix of Grey Goose and that lotion/perfume one can only inhale within the bulge bracket of gentlemen's clubs, I forgot not only the kid's name, but my Crackberry and scarf in one of the booths...

Oh well, so much for most favored Capitalist Devil status... I had my Shanghai trip all planned out...

Fisher vs. Gross: who are you betting on?

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
 
Points)
 on 11/4/10 at 12:18pm
noo-no

Ken Fisher, the billionaire head of Fisher Investments has recently gone on record calling out "The New Normal" as being "idiotic". Bill Gross, the billionaire head of PIMCO has not responded.

Since most of us here already have the canons of the New Normal memorized , let's give Fisher a shot at the title.

Waddell & Reed and the flash crash hypocrisy

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
 
Points)
 on 10/8/10 at 11:49am
waddell

Halloween's only three weeks away and we have a brand new witch to hunt. By now, everyone has heard of Waddell & Reed and how the Kansas City mutual fund is reason du jour for the end of capitalism and further legalizing of market manipulation.

As the story goes, on the afternoon of May 6, 2010 an algorithm propelled sell-off of $4.1 billion of futures contracts linked to the S&P 500 sent the market reeling. As with all good witch hunts, Waddell hasn't officially been named, but via leakage that would make the BP oil spill seem tame in comparison, we have our new villain.

I can hear the sound of Blankfein's cheeks stretching into a grin. It sounds like press on nails on a chalkboard.

Who is Bruce Berkowitz?

Midas Mulligan Magoo's picture
 
Points)
 on 8/5/10 at 11:38am
Bruce Berkowitz

We live in America. We worship the stars. Some say that the only thing we love more than building someone up to stardom, is ripping them from their pedestal and watching them sink into the mud.

Wall Street may exemplify this collective character flaw better than any other other high profile segment of society. Boesky, Milken, Madoff, Fuld...just to name a few. America loves the Wall Street villain, so it's no surprise that the good guys often get little mention.

Earlier this morning, I was reminded of this phenomenon.

Need S&P 500 earnings estimates

LA Banker's picture
AM
(Chimp, 9
 
Points)
 on 4/25/10 at 4:03pm

I don't have access to a Bloomberg and can't locate it in Barron's, so I would appreciate it if someone helped out and provided me with the 2010 and 2011 S&P 500 earnings estimates. TIA!