| On Bitcoin, Gold and Monetary PolicyThis negative article on bitcoin indirectly brought together a few disparate thoughts for me. The article's position/bias is clear - the digital currency, which has grown significantly vs. the dollar is a speculatively bubble:
What is even more interesting, however, is...|| 2 years 5 months|
| Gold shortage?Given the new gold backwardation, bulls have returned back in force (1, 2, 3) to explain how this will push gold higher. But does backwardation correlate with flat price?
Compared with flat price (front month), there doesn't seem to be an easy correlation. The last breakout for gold...|| 2 years 7 months|
| Digging into ING US (VOYA)After taking a position in ING US (NYSE: VOYA) at about the $25/share level, I have been fortunate to participate in the rise to above $30. The original target was around the 40-50$, with stop around $20, the ipo price. The recent rise and earnings report make this a good time to reevaluate the...|| 2 years 8 months|
| The next catalyst for GDXI've been pretty negative on gold miners (GDX), both because of the perceived weak hands involved on the long side and the terrible capital allocation policies/rising breakeven costs of the miners. At the risk of falling into confirmation bias, the recent articles about renewed gold hedging could...|| 2 years 8 months|
| Are Emerging Markets Diversified?GMO's most recent yearly forecasts seem like what most people think - negative on most bonds and most US equities, but most positive on emerging market equities (but interestingly, not their debt):
The traditional rationale for this is that emerging markets (Brazil, Russian India, China...|| 2 years 8 months|
| How to pick a fund managerPerhaps it is actually harder to pick a manager than to pick investments. The general statistics against active management are well-known. In 2012, for example, 63% of large cap mutual funds failed to match the market (even worse for hedge funds).
As a result, the full choice set for selecting...|| 2 years 9 months|
| Lampert's Folly?Edward Lampert's credentials are impeccable - Yale Skull & Bones, Goldman Sachs risk arbitrage under Robert Rubin (Secretary of the Treasury under Clinton), and of course the billion dollar hedge fund ESL Investments that he founded. Billionaire at 41, he even talked his way out of a kidnapping...|| 2 years 9 months|
| Conflict of Interest - Unfair but Necessary? Misaligned incentives seem to be a common trait in selling financial products. After issuer-paid credit ratings and stock exchanges which cater to high frequency traders, even data releases are not immune to such practices. Thomson Reuters is now under investigation for releasing a well-known...|| 2 years 9 months|
| Single Family Rentals - Institutional Herding...I originally got interested in single-family rentals with the spinoffs of Silver Bay Realty (SBY) and Altisource Residential (RESI) in the last half year or so. These companies buy single-family homes with the intention of renting them out. Given that mortgage rates (<5%) are less than rental...|| 2 years 10 months|
| Shibor - Canary in the Coal Mine?I'm surprised that the recent Shibor spike hasn't (Shibor is the Chinese version of LIBOR) sparked more concern. After staying at less than 4% for the last year, the 3-month rate has surged to above 5%. The overnight rate has spiked even further to 13%. To put things in perspective, 2011's top...|| 2 years 10 months|