2024 UK Election - Tories finished?
Want to replicate the US discussion to the UK - Conservatives polling as low as 19%, Labour with a 20points +/- lead. Reform UK also polling near 15%, that too without Nigel Farage officially returning. Curious to hear some thoughts or even a consensus, if that is that Rishi Sunak is doomed.
Sunak is cooked and the Conservative Party in general. This election will be a proper spanking for them and we will more than likely see a dramatic change in the party’s leadership going forward. Hopefully they do get their act right…
Agreed but the mess wasn't made under Sunak. Johnson trashed the moral image of the Conservatives with partygate lies. Then Truss trashed the economic credibility with the KamiKwasi budget which the Tories have never recovered from (and if they get wiped out), potentially never will recover from. Either way, they're starting at a decade in opposition.
In my opinion, this whole shitshow started when Cameron came into play. If you look a bit closer, Boris wasn’t really hated, they just hated what he did. If that makes sense… the Conservatives were losing it since 2016.
I'll be shocked if we see anything other than a Labour majority unless something wild happens like a war or another pandemic (and even then...)
I've totally stopped following politics to be honest (PM question time is beyond cringe), but even I can smell the mood music.
As additional context / fun, odds on a Conservative majority are 25/1 (potential winnings from a £10 bet at £260), whilst a Labour majority are 1/10 (potential winnings from that same bet at £10.63)
Those odds sounds about right
Yep. The Tories are screwed, it's not a good look for them.
P.S. the new Liz Truss book was ntg short of an embarrassing shitshow lol.
P.P.S. Rishi seems to be rubbing shoulders with Schwartzman and Jon Gray more than usual lately lol. Wouldn't be surprised if he's already paved his own exit to BX
What does he even need the BX money for tho
No one ever turned away more money, right? He probs knows that the writing is on the wall for the Tories and is planning his next move
Agreed - Labour are relishing seeing Truss try to make herself relevant again, it helps them massively to show that she still has no remorse over her mini budget and is dodging the blame for HER policies. Still bizarre to me that Sunak doesn't remove the whip from her or force deselection (her seat has a 26,000 majority). Plus, Sunak actually predicted a 'run on the pound' would occur under her budget when he was campaigning for leader, yet he doesn't speak much about how he was proved right
If someone who fked up, comes back with some thoughtful reflections on where they messed up, and produces a plan of concrete steps they will take to improve, then their mistakes are relatively easily forgivable. We're all human and we all make mistakes - I've made so many in my life lol. I just can't imagine doubling down on your dumbass mistakes and deflecting all blame lol - that just destroys all credibility and doesn't help you one bit. I once gave her the benefit of the doubt on her supposed smooth brain, but now things are rlly starting to suggest that she's actually just stupid lmao.
And yea, Rishi was right, I rmb he called her out before the fact.
Lmao from a quick google search it appears that Liz was supposedly called out for being shamelessly unrepentant and for using false / fabricated quotes in her book, apparently they call her Mrs Pooter out in the UK
The Polls will narrow but the Conservatives will get thrashed and lose.
From chats with my friends across the pond it does sound like they're dead in the water. If the UK's avatar of a conservative today are weaklings like Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak it's no surprise the party can't garner any support. They're utterly uninspiring and magnitudes more ineffectual than even the most establishment Republicans in the US which is saying a lot. It'd be interesting to see how a figure like Enoch Powell would be received today. There's some irony in this being posted on the 56th anniversary of his Rivers of Blood speech.
The tories are no longer conservatives but a weird four political party.
Above everything that's happened they've absolutely destroyed the economy.
By almost every metric the economy has been a disaster since 2010 compared to similar nations. Everything else you hear about Boris, Truss, immigration etc is just window dressing. The real reason they will be out in opposition for a decade is the mess they've made of the economy and rightfully so.
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