I am a second year associate in a MO position (primarily risk management although sometimes IBD interfacing). Up until recently, becoming a home-grown VP was almost a certainty, granted you weren't laid off, and had at least 5.5 years of industry experience. Not anymore.
Last year, two out of six associates weren't promoted to VP and less than a year later, they are no longer with the firm (one was laid-off and the other got a new job). The associate class ahead of me is much bigger, and honestly, we're pretty VP heavy as it is. Out of 10 or so associates, not everyone can make VP this year or next. Therefore, we're likely going to see some attrition, whether forced or not. I've also noticed that things have become far more political - at increasingly junior levels.