Ahhh....woulda, shoulda, coulda. About a half hour before the close yesterday, I got it in my head that AAPL was going to throw up a miss on their numbers, so I put in a limit order for a handful of the Jan 550 Puts at $13. From that moment on they never got cheaper than $13.05, and I didn't get filled. What I wouldn't give today to have coughed up that extra nickel...
After the close Apple announced that iPhone and iPad sales were nowhere near what was expected, and further went on to say that next quarter (you know, the one we're in right now) wasn't exactly gonna light the world on fire either. So much for China Telecom. Predictably, traders beat the stock like a rented mule in after hours trading, at one point sending it $46 a share lower. From what I'm seeing now, it looks set to open around $511 a share, down roughly $40 from yesterday's close.
Those options I had an order on? Probably worth about $50 apiece this morning. Just a four-bagger overnight, no big deal. Wanna hear something even worse? I bought Feb 525 Puts for $40 apiece way back on October 21 and held on to them until December 18, when I sold them at $22.25 for a 50% loss. Even those things will probably be worth the $40 I paid for them today at the open. God, I hate Apple.
I've hated Apple Computers since I was 11 years old and had to settle for a Commodore VIC-20 because my parents couldn't afford an Apple II. Actually, scratch that. My first computer was the BASIC Programming cartridge on the Atari 2600. Ever write a program in 64 characters total? I have. Meanwhile, that prick Terry Purdle across town had an Apple and only ever used it to play Depth Charge, but never missed an opportunity to point out how ghetto my rig was.
And so it continues today. Apple manages to somehow inject their douchey elitist air and high-minded hippie chic into their suite of products manufactured by slave labor in factories whose upper floors are ringed by suicide nets, and the prestige sheep line up to buy them (though clearly not in the impressive numbers of days gone by). Am I a hater? You bet your ass I am.
Fact is, their stuff isn't that cool anymore. Jobs appears to have taken all the innovation to the grave with him, unless you consider forcing all your customers to buy a new power cord innovation. The competition has not only caught up, it has surpassed Apple. The new Kindle Fire HDX is a vastly superior tablet to the iPad Mini at half the price, and that's to say nothing about how Samsung has taken Apple to the woodshed in the smartphone category.
Am I bitter? Maybe. Every time I touch this stock (or try to and don't get filled, like yesterday) I get burned. I guess I'll just have to content myself by watching the meltdown today.
Had basically every iPhone since the 3S, but i think this 5S is the last one i will buy. Initially loved the fact that i didn't have to carry a phone and an iPod, but now, every phone will do the same, and actually Android-based phones will do even more than aapl. I just don't like how non-classy all those Samsungs are. Look-wise, its still the iPhone hands-down.
Oh - and regarding trading action - i sincerely hope the market gives it to Icahn really hard.
It's gonna be a fugly open. Not out of the question to see it open under $500.
If it opens
It's ranging between $507-511 pre-market.
Tough hit for me... my avg. holding cost of Apple is $500. All my profits wiped away in one night.
May sound dumb, but no stop limits?
@"Edmundo Braverman": +1 Sums up exactly how I feel. Every time they claim that their products are "Innovative" and "Cutting-Edge", they're really just trying to squeeze out every penny from their blind and loyal fan base. (Disclaimer: I use to own a Mac cpu. In my defense, I bought it way back in HS. Young, dumb and inexperienced.)
@"zeropower": Icahn this morning: http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/279/456/8e5.jpg
DRINK DEEP FROM THE GOBLET OF HATERADE, my cup runneth over
Yes, Jobs was this company, the whole thing was his creation. He's gone and now Apple will go through the same epic and harrowing journey through the underworld of "redefining the company" that IBM did at one point. Hopefully they're not the next Sears. First and only Apple product I've ever owned is the iPhone 4 and I'm really really really sitting on the fence wondering where I'll upgrade. Realistically, I'm not paying $200 bucks for a phone, let alone one that requires a virus shield. Only time will tell, and this is definitely a stock I don't touch.
Comparing Apple to Sears is just straight retarded.
Quite a change of heart, Eddie.
@ joey joe joe shabadoo - comparing Sears from long ago to Sears now is just retarded. Lehman, Sears, JCPenny...these were strong companies at one point, now they're history. "That can't happen here" attitude is exactly when you start worrying. If they're so smart, how are they in this position? The company will go through a painful period of redifinition and retooling, and whether they make it or get chopped up and sold off is anyone's guess. In six months or a year, every moron tech analyst will be saying "we all knew this would happen after Jobs' death, blah blah blah".
"Apple whiffs, gets pounded after hours. Gwyneth/Chris could not be reached for comment." -2030 Academy Awards Post Show
"Apple whiffs, gets pounded after hours. Gwyneth/Chris could not be reached for comment." -2030 Academy Awards Post Show
The problem is what are the going to do. Who else has really innovated.
Apple reinvented the music player.
Apple reinvented the online pay for music model.
Apple reinvented the smart phone.
Apple reinvented the tablet.
Now what? Apple TV is cool, but that space has players already. The computers are very clean and sleek, but really only attracted a small segment. Samsung is trying the phone watch, but I don't see that having the traction as other things.
I don't track Apply too closely, but has Apple gained significant market share in the personal PC space? That is/was the goal of all these devices. You might be weary of a Mac Book, but if you get used to the Iphone and Ipod, then you might by an Icomputer. So goes the logic. Basically the Apple gateway drug.
I got rid of my Iphone 5 and went with an HTC One. Life isn't better. Iphone simply runs and runs well. I personally might go back if the Iphone 6 is really good.
This is almost a perfect repeat of what happened same Q last year. Until people get comfortable with the fact that AAPL is now a stable, high quality blue-chip and not a high-flying, hyper-growth tech anymore it's gonna get beat up any time it misses/gives poor guidance. Wouldn't be surprised if it trades down to $450 or so. Actually might get interesting at that point as I know Ichan is going to keep raising hell about a buyback.
I agree.
If that's the case (AAPL becoming quality blue-chip) then the stock price would have to reflect so before the future volatility after guidance/earnings drop. At the current levels, one can only expect volatility after guidance/earnings to continue.
A lot of gold in this post, sorry it was inspired by missed opportunity. Ah, the Atari 2600, I can still hear the commercial.
Icahn doubling down this morning with another $500mm purchase. lol. Can't imagine the buying power his PBs give him....
What is PB?
Wall Street just hates the fact that AAPL of today isn't the AAPL of 2007-2011. It was inevitable - this is now a mature company churning out top quality products and making insane profits. The fact that estimates missed results (yes you read that right) which were the best Apple has EVER produced says something about the mindset. As a profitable cash-flow company I think it's a pretty good deal, if it falls to $450 I'm in.
I own both an iPhone 5S and Samsung s4 and can honestly say the s4 is TERRIBLE in comparison. Yes it is fitted with a load of fancy tech which I nor anyone else will ever use but in terms of sheer user experience and smoothness, it doesn't even compare. Apple is never going to be the market share leader, but it will be the profit leader and offer the best experience at a premium price.
Fuaaark, down $1200 from today alone. Up overall though
What happened to us using our phones to make calls, and if needing to be a little fancy, text? Thank you Apple for destroying my dreams.
Apple was a slow growth (or declining growth) company before it jumped into the music device market. I always consider it an odd stroke of luck (or genius if you believe anyone could predict the outcome at the time) that a device like a iPod became as popular as it did. There were already mp3 players out there, and they were all substantially more expensive then CD players. Along with it being cool, I think a lot of people adopted it because the system was so easy to set up and use (iPod + iTunes). I give Apple credit there, and the fact that they realized they could dominate online music sales with software they already had entrenched with users was a perfect next step.
So Apple took over an already existing market and dominated. The real powder keg though was what came next with the smart phone. I personally don’t think Apple would have had major success with the iPhone without the almost universal adoption of the iPod. I remember having a Treo in the mid 2000’s and I thought it was amazing that I could have internet access on a phone. However, most people I showed couldn't understand why on earth you would want that. It was slow, the screen was tiny, and other than some email software, nothing was designed to work with it.
What happened with the iPhone was amazing because it created two complete new markets. The first being a true smartphone space, not just a few specialized versions of traditional mobile phone. And the second was the mobile software industry, and this is the most remarkable, I think. The iPhone would not have done much for Apple without the massive amount of “cheap” software that was developed over a relatively short period of time. And there wouldn't have been such a surge or applications without developers knowing they could immediately reach such a large market all at once. Both of those elements had to come together at the same time to create the success it did.
The issue now is that if Apple is going to have another booming growth period it has to take over a completely new market or create one again. I’m not saying that can’t happen, I just don’t see that happening with what they currently have in the pipeline.
Grayson I like your analysis. The challenge with Apple is that they tend to keep their pipeline relatively obscure. There have long been rumors of them focusing on TV, and I hope to see that happen one day. Personally, I want to see them take on the payments business. I don't understand why in this day in age merchants are still being charged north of 2.5% for each credit card transaction. Dwolla is doing something right, but does not have the reach and scope yet to truly be transformative. If Apple pushed hard I think they could secure the right partners and have the right reach to make this happen.
Yekrut, the payment business idea makes a lot of sense, and I didn't think they would have the foresight or balls to jump in that space with both feet. They have to move soon though. The large market share they have is their main advantage. If they keep losing die hard customers then they won't have the base platform in place to have the outside elements fall into place; be it banks, retailers, or what have you. Plus, I feel like Google has already started getting involved with Google Wallet, so Apple will start by fending off competition. Something they didn't really have to deal much with in the smartphone market.
The high end smartphone manufacturers are in trouble. Smartphone saturation is just the beginning, as we are beginning to see entrants into the market with much lower margins (Xiaomi). It is inevitable that they start to add features that move them up the consumer chain until they are undercutting Apple and Samsung in the higher end margins.
Someone had to say it.
I rarely read this site anymore but I'm on lunch and knew there would be at least one thread on WSO ripping AAPL for the dog it is, thanks for not letting me down.
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