First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all. This epic orgy of excess is second only to New Year's Eve on my list of favorite holidays. Hopefully you all have plenty to be thankful for this year. Has to be better than last year anyway, right? Last year we were just thankful the Earth didn't spin off its axis and hurtle into the sun.
In spite of the wholesomeness of today's festivities, tomorrow marks the annual ritual of staring into the blackness of man's soul and watching old ladies fist fight over $19 microwave ovens. I'm really wondering what to expect this year, though. With unemployment over 10%, real unemployment over 17%, and one in four homeowners upside down on their mortgage, will people really show up in the normal droves to line up outside Wal-Mart at 5 in the morning?
I have a feeling tomorrow might shine the light on the fact that the emperor has no clothes and that this "recovery" is a fantasy. However, it seems the country really wants to believe the recession is over and that everything has been fixed, so they might show up and spend anyway. The trade I recommended HERE is underwater in a big way, and I'm wondering if bad numbers tomorrow will be its salvation. That was my thought going into the trade, anyway.
Are any of you planning to mob the stores tomorrow? What do you think tomorrow's numbers will look like?
Barring anything about potential defaults in Ukraine and Dubai, the slightest bit of good news this year will allow the markets to pump. The good news will probably come from how much better holiday sales will be than last year. When/if this happens I will be closing my long positions and taking a nice profit, even though I only got in around September. With each day, it seems like up is down and down is up, so I'm taking my profits while I can.
It will be interesting to see how the Dubai situation will effect the market tomorrow. I think you're right, though. The market is horny for good news and the least little bit of light at the end of the tunnel causes unbelievable runs from day to day.
Pisses me off, actually.
While sales will hardly be robust, continued cost cutting initiatives and better inventory management will lead to better than expected earnings this holiday season. Retailers earnings projections all seem intentionally conservative and I expect most to beat analyst estimates. Granted most of my upside economics are tied to this sector so I may be a bit biased but i am certainly closer to the numbers than most.
I think Black Friday numbers will be better than expected due to pent up demand and a slightly improved general outlook of the population. I think we will see plenty of hair-pulling and bad behavior at WalMart and others on Friday although many of these stores have changed/improved their policies.
Happy Thanksgiving
Edmundo - I wouldn't worry too much about tomorrow's sales because I think that Dubai just bailed you out (on your call options). FTSE down 3.2% today, and it would have gone down more if it wasn't for the London Stock Exchange having to close down for 4 hours during mid-day trading, because their systems went down.
I am worried that this Dubai debacle will cause a huge sell-off over the next few weeks.
Your lips to God's ears, brother.
I'm not sure how big a deal it will be tomorrow, but if it drops the American markets by 3 or 4 percent it could lead to a sustained sell off, which is overdue. I thought Dubai was like the richest country on Earth. Pretty wild. Sucks that the LSE shut down today. Probably kept things from dropping as far as they could have.
It's funny how many people think Dubai is rich as hell. Reality is that it's all borrowed money - all the petrodollars belong to Abu Dhabi. What Dubai tried was to borrow a shitload to transform itself into the new Las Vegas or Monaco. I think they partly succeeded, but shit hit the fan and the leverage is backfiring now...
Dubai has an ulimited credit line in its gulf neighbors.
I wonder when they'll pull the plug.
Futures down almost 3% but something must be going on at the Fed/all CBs because with a Dubai default recognized and potential defaults coming in Greece and Mexico, the markets are pumping as compared to their earlier futures. Gold down heavy. I'm going to start pulling my dollar shorts.
Isn't this exactly how our economy got it's arsch handed to it in the first place? People are still buying things they can't afford to make themselves appear richer and more succesful than they really are. Out of all the people storming into stores as if the stuff were free, how many of those people actually sat down before, looked at their income/expenses and thought about how much they can really afford to spend? I'm long on gold trades and short on asian currencies so bring on the chaos. Happy holidays :)
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